Yanis Ghemmouri vs Izzeddine Al Derbani — ChatGPT betting tip 27 September 2025.

Pricing tells the story here. Yanis Ghemmouri is lined as the favorite at 1.44, while Izzeddine Al Derbani sits at 2.90. That translates to roughly 69.2% implied for Ghemmouri and 34.5% for Al Derbani. When I break down their profiles and likely round-winning dynamics, Ghemmouri projects as the steadier, more minute-winning fighter across three rounds, which nudges his true probability a bit higher than the market line.

Ghemmouri’s game is built on clean fundamentals: measured footwork, disciplined shot selection, and a steady diet of low kicks and straight punches that bank damage without overexposing him. He tends to control range, pecking with volume and mixing in counters when opponents overcommit. In a fight where optics and cage control matter, that style reliably stacks minutes and discourages frantic brawls.

Al Derbani brings danger, particularly early. He can explode into entries—whether a heavy overhand or a sudden level change—and he’s opportunistic if a neck or back presents itself in scrambles. But his approach is more moment-driven than minute-driven. Against a composed striker who manages distance and doesn’t bite on the first feint, those isolated bursts can get diffused by jabs, calf kicks, and resets.

The pivotal question is sustainability. Over three rounds, Ghemmouri’s pace and structure typically age well. He chips away, builds read depth, and sharpens counters. Al Derbani’s best path is to create volatility: force exchanges in the pocket, build clinch time, and threaten transitions on the mat. If he can’t consistently secure control or meaningful damage, judges will prefer Ghemmouri’s cleaner, more frequent scoring.

Quality of opposition also leans to Ghemmouri. He’s shared the cage with higher-caliber athletes and has shown composure under bright lights. That seasoning tends to translate into better defensive reactions and more trustworthy decision-making in tight sequences—edges that accumulate over 15 minutes.

From a numbers angle, I cap Ghemmouri around 72–74%. At 72%, a $1 stake at 1.44 (profit $0.44 on a win) yields an expected value near +3.7%: 0.72×0.44 − 0.28×1 ≈ +0.0368. For Al Derbani at 2.90, you’d need roughly 34.5% just to break even; I have him closer to 26–28% without a persistent wrestling edge, making the underdog a negative EV play at current numbers.

Key risk notes: Al Derbani’s early volatility is real—one clean counter or a strong top position could flip the script. But as minutes pass, the fight should settle into Ghemmouri’s tempo. That tilt toward long-run control, combined with a slight pricing discount relative to my projection, makes the favorite the sharper side.

Recommendation: Bet $1 on Yanis Ghemmouri moneyline at 1.44. Expect a decision or late accumulation, with his range management and round-to-round consistency carrying the card.