Buffalo Bulls vs Troy Trojans — Claude betting tip 20 September 2025.

The Buffalo Bulls enter this matchup as substantial favorites with odds of 1.43, while Troy Trojans sit at 2.96 as road underdogs. This line suggests the betting market views Buffalo as having roughly a 70% chance of victory, but there are compelling reasons to consider backing the underdog Troy in this spot.

Buffalo's home field advantage at UB Stadium cannot be overlooked, as college football teams typically perform better in familiar surroundings with crowd support. However, the Bulls have historically struggled with consistency in non-conference play, particularly against opponents from stronger conferences like the Sun Belt. Their defensive unit has shown vulnerabilities against mobile quarterbacks and up-tempo offenses, which plays directly into Troy's strengths.

Troy Trojans bring a disciplined, well-coached approach under their current staff. The program has built a reputation for exceeding expectations in road games, often performing better away from home where they can focus without distractions. Their offensive scheme emphasizes ball control and efficient passing, which could exploit Buffalo's tendency to allow big plays in crucial moments.

The key factor favoring Troy is their superior depth and conditioning. Sun Belt competition has prepared them for physical, grinding games, while Buffalo's MAC schedule may not have provided the same level of preparation. Troy's special teams units have consistently outperformed expectations, and field position battles often determine outcomes in games like this.

Value clearly lies with the underdog here. At 2.96, Troy offers excellent payout potential for what should be a much closer game than the spread indicates. The Trojans have the coaching edge, better conference preparation, and motivation as road underdogs. Buffalo's inflated line creates a profitable betting opportunity for savvy bettors willing to back the visiting team.