Buffalo Bulls vs Troy Trojans — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

In the world of sports betting, identifying value is the key to long-term profitability. This early-season non-conference matchup between the Troy Trojans and the Buffalo Bulls presents a classic value proposition. The bookmakers have installed Buffalo as a heavy home favorite with odds of 1.43, implying a win probability of around 70%. While home-field advantage is a factor, these odds seem to drastically underestimate a Troy program that has consistently been one of the top teams in the Group of Five.

The primary reason for this assessment lies in the relative strength of their respective conferences. The Troy Trojans hail from the Sun Belt Conference, which has earned the moniker 'The Fun Belt' for its exciting play and has firmly established itself as arguably the best Group of Five conference in the nation. Teams from the Sun Belt regularly challenge and defeat Power Five opponents, and Troy has been at the forefront of that movement, winning conference championships and performing exceptionally well in bowl games. They are a battle-tested program accustomed to high-stakes environments.

Conversely, the Buffalo Bulls compete in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). While the MAC has its share of solid teams, it generally does not possess the top-to-bottom depth and national respect that the Sun Belt has garnered in recent years. Buffalo has had its moments of success, but they have not demonstrated the same level of consistent, high-level performance as Troy. This isn't a knock on Buffalo, but rather a realistic appraisal of the caliber of opponent they are facing.

Troy has built a reputation on a foundation of stout defense and disciplined, physical play. This identity travels well and often frustrates opponents who may be more offensively inclined but lack the same grit. The Trojans won't be intimidated by the road environment at UB Stadium. They have a history of playing tough schedules and are well-coached, meaning they are unlikely to beat themselves with foolish penalties or turnovers. This disciplined approach is precisely what you look for in a live underdog.

While Buffalo gets the nod from oddsmakers, likely due to playing at home, the talent and program trajectory gap between these two teams is much narrower than the odds suggest. In fact, many would argue Troy is the better overall team. The 2.96 odds on a Troy victory represent tremendous value. Their true chances of winning this game are likely closer to 40-45%, not the 34% implied by the odds. This is a prime opportunity to back a superior program getting underdog pricing. We're taking the value and the points with a team that has a very real path to an outright victory.