Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny — Claude betting tip 28 September 2025.

This welterweight matchup presents a fascinating clash of styles and career trajectories. Jake Matthews enters as the heavy favorite at 1.24, reflecting his recent momentum and home advantage fighting out of Australia. The 30-year-old has shown significant improvements in his striking game while maintaining his solid wrestling foundation, making him a more complete fighter than in his earlier UFC days.

Matthews' path to victory lies in his ability to control where the fight takes place. His takedown accuracy and ground control have been impressive in recent outings, and against a rangy striker like Magny, getting the fight to the mat could neutralize the American's reach advantage. Matthews has also demonstrated improved cardio and fight IQ, showing he can adapt his game plan mid-fight when necessary.

Neil Magny at 4.32 represents intriguing value despite being the underdog. The veteran's 77-inch reach gives him a significant advantage in the striking exchanges, and his jab-heavy approach has troubled many welterweights throughout his career. Magny's experience edge is substantial, having faced elite competition consistently and showing remarkable durability in high-level fights.

The key factor favoring Matthews is his recent activity and momentum. He's been more active than Magny lately and appears to be hitting his prime years. Magny, while experienced, has shown some decline in his takedown defense, which could be exploited by Matthews' wrestling-heavy approach.

The betting value strongly favors Matthews, but the odds seem appropriate given his stylistic advantages and current form. While Magny's experience and reach could create problems, Matthews' well-rounded skill set and ability to dictate the fight's pace make him the safer investment. The Australian's home crowd support and recent improvements in all areas suggest he should handle Magny's veteran craftiness effectively.