Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight bout presents a classic striker vs grappler dilemma with razor-thin odds. Puelles (-112) is a dangerous submission specialist, particularly lethal with kneebars, holding 6 wins by this method. His path to victory hinges on dragging Silva to the mat, where he averages 2.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. Silva's (-104) vulnerability to submissions (tapped in 2 of his last 4 losses) is Puelles' biggest opening. However, Silva boasts superior striking volume (3.25 significant strikes landed/min vs Puelles' 2.51) and significantly better striking defense. Puelles absorbed a worrying 5.4 strikes/min before being TKO'd by Dan Hooker last time out. Silva's improved takedown defense (66%) and consistent pressure could expose Puelles' questionable durability if he keeps it standing. While Puelles' grappling upside is undeniable, Silva's recent performances suggest he's tightened his defensive gaps. The value lies slightly with Silva at 1.96. His striking output and ability to potentially stuff early takedowns, forcing Puelles into a standup battle he often loses, gives him a narrow edge. This is likely a competitive fight, but Silva's more well-rounded recent form and the minor price advantage make him the slightly more profitable play.