Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a quintessential striker versus grappler dynamic, and the nearly even odds reflect just how divisive this matchup is. Claudio Puelles, the 'Prince of Peru', is a submission specialist of the highest order, while Joaquim Silva possesses the kind of fight-ending power that can turn the lights out in an instant. The fight will be determined by which man can impose his will and fight in his preferred domain.

Claudio Puelles has a very clear, but narrow, path to victory: get this fight to the mat. He is a relentless grappler with a highly specialized submission game centered around leg locks, particularly his devastating kneebar. He has used this skill set to secure multiple victories inside the octagon. However, his deficiencies are just as clear. His striking is rudimentary at best, and his chin was shown to be a significant liability in his knockout loss to Dan Hooker. If he cannot secure takedowns, he becomes a sitting target for any competent striker, a fact further exposed in his decision loss to Farès Ziam.

Joaquim 'Netto BJJ' Silva, despite his nickname and black belt, is a striker first and foremost. He marches forward with aggressive combinations, hunting for the knockout with genuine one-punch power. His path to victory is to keep the fight standing, defend Puelles' telegraphed takedown attempts, and punish him for closing the distance. While he has been inconsistent, his losses have come against high-level competition like Arman Tsarukyan and Drakkar Klose. He is battle-tested and his power is a constant, looming threat that Puelles will have to respect from the opening bell.

Ultimately, this fight comes down to whether Puelles can get it to the ground before Silva can land a clean, powerful shot. The blueprint to beat Puelles has been laid out: stuff the takedowns and exploit his weak stand-up. Silva is a more powerful and aggressive striker than Puelles' last opponent, Farès Ziam. With the odds being a virtual toss-up at 1.89 for Puelles and 1.96 for Silva, the value lies with the fighter who has the more decisive finishing weapon. While a Puelles submission is a live possibility, Silva's knockout power against a fighter with a questionable chin is the more probable fight-ending sequence. I'm backing Silva to weather the initial grappling storm and find the finish on the feet.