Lucas Almeida vs Walter Cogliandro — DeepSeek betting tip 27 September 2025.

Lucas Almeida enters this matchup as a heavy favorite for compelling reasons. The Brazilian striker boasts devastating knockout power and a Muay Thai pedigree that has overwhelmed opponents in the past. With 1.50 odds, the market reflects his edge in a home environment, where crowd energy often amplifies his aggressive style. Almeida's record against grapplers shows vulnerability, but Walter Cogliandro's BJJ-centric approach requires closing distance—a risky proposition against Almeida's crisp counter-striking and takedown defense honed at Chute Boxe Academy.

Cogliandro's 2.50 odds offer intrigue for underdog seekers, given his submission skills and solid ground control. Yet, the Italian fighter struggles against elite strikers who dictate range, and Almeida’s experience in high-stakes bouts provides a tactical advantage. At age 34, Almeida’s speed remains intact, while Cogliandro’s 32-year-old durability hasn’t been tested against this caliber of power.

Financially, Almeida’s odds imply a 66.7% win probability, but his true likelihood sits closer to 70% when weighing styles, location, and recent form. This discrepancy creates positive expected value—a rarity for favorites—making him the smarter profit-driven bet despite the lower payout.