Lucas Almeida vs Walter Cogliandro — Gemini betting tip 27 September 2025.

In this featherweight clash, we're looking at a classic matchup between a proven UFC talent looking to rebound and a promotional newcomer aiming to make a statement. Lucas Almeida enters as the favorite at 1.50, and for good reason. Despite riding a two-fight losing streak, those losses came against seasoned UFC competition in Andre Fili and Pat Sabatini. This experience against high-level opponents is an invaluable asset that cannot be overstated.

Almeida is, first and foremost, a dangerous striker. With a foundation in Muay Thai, 'Mineiro' possesses significant power in his hands and feet, constantly pressing forward and looking for the knockout. Nine of his fourteen professional victories have come by way of KO/TKO, a testament to his finishing instincts. He will undoubtedly look to keep this fight standing, where he has a distinct and substantial advantage over his opponent. His primary vulnerability has been on the mat, as two of his three career losses have come via submission. This is the clear path to victory for his opponent, but executing that game plan is another matter entirely.

Enter Walter Cogliandro, the underdog at 2.50, who is making his UFC debut. While he has a respectable record on the regional scene, the leap in competition to the UFC is notoriously difficult. Cogliandro is a more well-rounded fighter than Almeida, with a decent mix of knockouts and submissions on his resume. His best chance in this fight is to weather the early storm from Almeida, close the distance, and drag the fight into a grappling contest. If he can get Almeida to the ground and test his submission defense, he could pull off the upset.

However, the deck is stacked against the debutant. Almeida's takedown defense, while not impenetrable, should be sufficient to handle the initial attempts from Cogliandro. Furthermore, Almeida has the pressure of a two-fight skid motivating him to secure a decisive victory and prove he belongs in the promotion. He is being given a favorable stylistic matchup against a newcomer, and it's an opportunity he is unlikely to squander. Expect Almeida to use his superior striking volume and power to control the octagon, fend off takedown attempts, and ultimately find a home for his heavy shots. While an upset is always possible in MMA, Almeida's experience and power striking present the most probable path to victory.