New York City FC vs Columbus Crew SC — DeepSeek betting tip 17 September 2025.

This late-season MLS clash at Yankee Stadium presents intriguing betting dynamics. New York City FC holds a distinct home-field advantage, leveraging their notoriously narrow pitch to disrupt Columbus Crew SC's preferred possession-based build-up play. NYCFC's unbeaten home record against Columbus (5W-3D-0L historically) demonstrates a tangible matchup edge. While both teams exhibit similar mid-table form, NYCFC's high press could capitalize on potential instability in Columbus' backline, especially with key center-back injuries limiting Crew SC's rotation depth. Columbus boasts impressive attacking talent like Cucho Hernandez, but NYCFC's organized midfield and creative threats like Talles Magno or Santi Rodriguez are better suited to exploit spaces on the counter in this specific venue setup. The odds reflect NYCFC as favorites (2.20), implying a 45.5% win probability, but their historical dominance at home and tactical edge suggest a true probability closer to 50-55%, creating positive expected value. While the draw at 3.75 offers a viable hedge scenario, NYCFC's consistent home results against this opponent make them the smarter, value-driven play. Late-season desperation often amplifies home advantages, tipping this tight contest slightly towards the hosts.