New York Giants vs Los Angeles Chargers — DeepSeek betting tip 28 September 2025.

The Chargers enter as heavy favorites with 1.35 odds, implying roughly a 74% win probability. Herbert's elite arm talent and a potent offense justify this status, especially against a Giants team undergoing rebuilding. However, betting isn't about picking the likely winner; it's about finding value where the odds misprice risk. The Giants' 3.38 odds translate to just a 29% implied probability – a number that feels too low given key situational factors.

History shows the Giants are surprisingly resilient as big home underdogs, often covering large spreads. The cross-country travel for the Chargers is a proven disadvantage in the NFL, potentially dulling their offensive precision early. New York's defense, particularly under coordinator Wink Martindale, excels at generating pressure and turnovers. If they can disrupt Herbert and force a couple of key mistakes, the game's dynamic shifts significantly. The Giants' offense doesn't need to dominate, just capitalize on opportunities created by the defense and special teams in a lower-scoring affair.

Ultimately, while the Chargers *should* win, the immense payout offered on the Giants (3.38) presents a classic value bet. The true probability of a Giants win, considering the home underdog boost and defensive playmaking potential, is likely closer to 35-40%. When the odds imply only a 29% chance, betting the Giants offers positive expected value (+EV). This is a calculated risk on variance favoring the underdog in specific game scripts.