Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a classic stylistic matchup between Rafa Garcia's grappling prowess and Jared Gordon's well-rounded technical striking. Garcia brings relentless pressure and strong wrestling, but Gordon's elite takedown defense (70% in UFC) and experience against top-tier competition create significant hurdles. Gordon has consistently faced higher-caliber opponents like Charles Oliveira and Paddy Pimblett, demonstrating superior cage IQ and defensive scrambling ability. Garcia's striking remains a liability, as seen in losses to technical strikers like Nasrat Haqparast where he struggled to close distance effectively. Gordon's crisp boxing combinations and body attacks should accumulate damage as the fight progresses, particularly given Garcia's tendency to fatigue in later rounds. The odds of 1.42 on Gordon imply a 70% win probability, but his actual chances appear closer to 75% when considering Garcia's limited paths to victory beyond low-percentage takedowns. While Garcia's underdog odds at 3.01 offer intrigue, Gordon's tactical superiority in creating angles and stuffing shots provides more reliable value at these prices.