Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon — Gemini betting tip 13 September 2025.

This lightweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic puzzle, pitting the relentless wrestling of Rafa "Gifted" Garcia against the high-volume boxing and iron will of Jared "Flash" Gordon. While Garcia is a live underdog with a clear path to victory, the smart money lies with the favorite, Jared Gordon, who appears to have the perfect toolkit to defuse Garcia's primary weapon.

Jared Gordon, priced as the 1.42 favorite, has evolved into a formidable anti-grappler. His performance against Olympic silver medalist wrestler Mark Madsen was a revelation. Gordon not only stuffed takedown after takedown but also maintained his composure and striking output, eventually finishing Madsen in the third round. This single performance provides a compelling blueprint for how he can handle Garcia. Gordon's game is built on relentless pressure, crisp boxing combinations, and arguably the best cardio in the division. He will look to use his footwork to stay on the outside, peppering Garcia with jabs and body shots, and make Garcia pay every time he tries to close the distance.

Rafa Garcia, entering as the 3.01 underdog, lives and dies by his wrestling. His strategy is no secret: he will march forward, eat shots if necessary, and relentlessly pursue the takedown. Once on the mat, he possesses heavy top control and can grind opponents down for 15 minutes. His durability is unquestionable, and he will not be deterred by Gordon's offense. However, the central question is whether he can successfully get Gordon to the mat and keep him there. Gordon is incredibly difficult to hold down, constantly working to get back to his feet. Garcia will need to expend a tremendous amount of energy to implement his game plan.

Ultimately, this fight will be decided by wrestling exchanges and scrambles. If Garcia can secure takedowns early and often, he can steal rounds and grind out a decision. However, the more likely scenario is that Gordon's takedown defense holds up. He will force Garcia into a striking battle, an arena where Gordon holds a significant advantage in both volume and technical skill. Over three rounds, expect Gordon's higher output and cleaner shots to sway the judges, leading him to a hard-fought but clear decision victory.