Simone Patrizi vs Chris Bungard — DeepSeek betting tip 13 September 2025.

Chris Bungard enters this fight as the rightful favorite, and his current odds offer tangible value. Let's break this down. First, activity matters immensely in MMA. Bungard has fought consistently against solid regional competition since his last UFC appearance in 2021, going 4-2 and staying sharp. Patrizi, conversely, hasn't fought since September 2022 and holds a concerning 1-3 record in his last four bouts, signaling potential decline at 35 years old. Ring rust is a major factor here.

Stylistically, Bungard holds significant advantages. His background is rooted in relentless pressure and strong wrestling – tools perfectly suited to smother Patrizi's kickboxing base. Patrizi struggles historically against grapplers who can close distance effectively. Bungard's durability and cardio allow him to maintain a high pace, which could overwhelm the older, less active Patrizi, especially if the fight enters deeper rounds. While the fight takes place in Italy (Patrizi's home), Bungard's experience fighting internationally mitigates this.

The odds tell the story. Bungard at 1.74 implies roughly a 57% win probability. Given Patrizi's long layoff, recent poor form, and stylistic vulnerability, Bungard's true chances feel closer to 65-70%. This discrepancy makes 1.74 a price worth taking. Patrizi at 1.95 simply doesn't reflect the significant risks associated with his inactivity and matchup difficulties. Betting value clearly lies with the younger, more active, and stylistically advantaged Scotsman.