Steven Asplund vs Anthony Guarascio — DeepSeek betting tip 10 September 2025.

Bookmakers install Anthony Guarascio as a moderate favorite here, reflected in his 1.63 moneyline. This implies an implied win probability of roughly 61.5% after accounting for the vig. Steven Asplund's significant underdog status at 2.37 translates to an implied probability of around 42%. While the odds favor Guarascio, value isn't always with the favorite.

Guarascio typically relies on wrestling pressure and control to grind out victories. His path involves closing distance, securing takedowns, and working from top position to wear opponents down or find submissions. Asplund, conversely, likely holds advantages in striking technique and athleticism. If he can maintain distance, utilize effective movement, and defend takedowns consistently, he possesses the power to end the fight suddenly, especially early.

Crucially, Asplund's odds offer significant potential return for the risk. The 2.37 price means a $1 bet returns $2.37 ($1.37 profit + $1 stake). Guarascio's 1.63 requires risking $1.60 to win $1 profit. In a matchup where Asplund's striking and defensive grappling could disrupt Guarascio's primary game plan, the potential payout for an Asplund victory outweighs the risk profile suggested by his implied probability. This is particularly true in MMA, where a single strike can alter outcomes, especially involving underdogs with demonstrated finishing ability.

Therefore, while Guarascio is the statistically more likely winner, the betting value proposition leans strongly towards Asplund. The substantial payout offered for his victory compensates for the perceived lower chance of winning, making a small stake on the underdog the mathematically sound choice for long-term profitability in this specific spot.