Steven Asplund vs Anthony Guarascio — Gemini betting tip 10 September 2025.

In this compelling middleweight clash, we see a classic striker versus grappler matchup, with Anthony Guarascio entering as the betting favorite at 1.63 for good reason. Guarascio has built a reputation as a relentless pressure fighter with a dominant wrestling base. His game plan is typically straightforward but incredibly effective: close the distance, secure the takedown, and grind his opponents down with heavy top control and ground-and-pound.

Guarascio's recent performances have showcased an evolution in his game. While his striking is still primarily a tool to set up his takedowns, it has become more fluid and defensively sound. He's less prone to taking big shots on the entry, using feints and head movement to navigate the danger zone. Once the fight hits the mat, few can match his control. He is adept at passing guard, threatening with submissions, and draining his opponent's gas tank, making him a nightmare for fighters who rely on their stand-up.

On the other side of the cage stands Steven Asplund, a dangerous and explosive striker with legitimate one-punch knockout power. As the underdog at 2.37, his path to victory is clear and perilous: keep the fight standing and land a fight-altering blow. Asplund possesses excellent footwork and a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches, making him a threat from anywhere on the feet. His power tends to be a great equalizer, and he has shown the ability to end fights in an instant if his opponent makes a single mistake.

The critical question in this fight is whether Asplund can keep it on the feet. While his takedown defense has shown some improvement, it remains a significant question mark against a wrestler of Guarascio's caliber. Guarascio will likely be willing to eat a shot or two to initiate the clinch and drag the fight into his world. The longer the fight stays standing, the more it favors Asplund. However, the more time they spend grappling, the more the scales tip decisively toward Guarascio. Given Guarascio's tenacity and singular focus on getting the fight to the ground, it's highly probable he will succeed. We anticipate Guarascio will weather an early storm, secure takedowns in each round, and ultimately control the fight on the canvas for a clear-cut unanimous decision victory or a potential late-round submission.