Jefferson Nascimento vs Baysangur Makaev — Gemini betting tip 27 September 2025.

This main event presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic, with Baysangur Makaev entering as the betting favorite at 1.77, and for good reason. Makaev embodies the new breed of relentless pressure fighters, blending a high-level wrestling base with suffocating top control and a seemingly endless gas tank. His path to victory is clear and has been proven effective time and again: close the distance, secure the takedown, and systematically break his opponent's will with ground-and-pound and submission attempts. He doesn't often hunt for the spectacular one-punch knockout, but his methodical approach grinds opponents down, making him a nightmare matchup for fighters who rely on space and timing.

On the other side, Jefferson Nascimento represents the high-risk, high-reward underdog. With odds of 2.00, the bookmakers are giving him a puncher's chance, which is exactly what he has. Nascimento is an explosive and athletic striker with legitimate knockout power in his hands and feet. His best chance is to keep the fight standing, using his footwork to maintain distance and catch Makaev coming in. If he can stuff the initial takedown attempts and force Makaev into a striking battle, the entire dynamic of the fight could shift in his favor. However, questions remain about his defensive wrestling and his ability to work back to his feet once taken down by a specialist of Makaev's caliber.

When we break down the stylistic clash, the fight heavily favors the grappler. Makaev's singular focus on getting the fight to the mat is a difficult strategy to counter for a full 15 or 25 minutes. While Nascimento might have success early on, Makaev is durable and has shown he can walk through fire to implement his game plan. The longer the fight goes, the more it will likely take place in Makaev's world—the clinch and the ground. We can expect Makaev to weather an early storm, secure takedowns in the latter half of the first round, and begin imposing his will. From there, it becomes a question of whether Nascimento can survive the onslaught.

From a betting perspective, laying the juice on a favorite like Makaev at 1.77 feels like a sound investment. While the allure of a plus-money underdog is always tempting, Nascimento's path to victory is significantly narrower. He needs a perfect shot, whereas Makaev can win through multiple avenues: a dominant unanimous decision, a late-round TKO from ground-and-pound, or a submission on a fatigued opponent. The smart money is on the fighter with the more reliable and sustainable strategy. We predict Makaev will successfully navigate the early danger and grind out a hard-fought victory.