Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott — Gemini betting tip 28 September 2025.

This upcoming clash between Jonathan Micallef and Oban Elliott presents a classic MMA puzzle: the powerful prospect versus the battle-tested veteran. The odds reflect the perceived closeness of this contest, with Elliott positioned as a narrow favorite at 1.83 and Micallef as a live underdog at 2.02. While Micallef brings intriguing potential, the smart money lies with the proven commodity in Oban Elliott.

Oban "The Welsh Gangster" Elliott has already passed the UFC entry exam, earning a hard-fought decision victory over Val Woodburn in his promotional debut. That fight showcased his key attributes: durability, relentless pressure, and a well-rounded skill set. Elliott isn't necessarily elite in one single area, but he is competent everywhere. He can hold his own in a striking exchange, possesses a tenacious grappling game, and, most importantly, has a gas tank and a level of grit that can wear opponents down. He's comfortable making a fight ugly, grinding against the fence, and turning the octagon into a phone booth, which often neutralizes more dynamic but less experienced fighters.

Jonathan Micallef, on the other hand, is a fighter with considerable power and finishing instincts. He's earned his shot on the big stage by putting opponents away, and his primary path to victory here is undoubtedly through his striking. He needs to keep the fight at a distance where he can leverage his power and prevent Elliott from closing in and initiating clinches or takedowns. The major question mark for Micallef is how he will react to the step-up in competition and the relentless, grinding style that Elliott brings. We haven't seen him tested in deep waters against a fighter who can absorb punishment and consistently threaten with takedowns for three rounds.

Stylistically, this fight will be determined by who can dictate the geography of the octagon. If Micallef can keep Elliott on the end of his punches and stuff the initial takedown attempts, he has a very real chance of scoring a knockout. However, the more probable scenario is that Elliott will weather the early storm, use his forward pressure to force Micallef against the cage, and turn this into a grueling grappling affair. Elliott's experience under the bright lights and his proven durability give him a significant edge. He'll likely mix in takedowns, control Micallef on the mat or against the fence, and drain his gas tank. While Micallef's power makes him a dangerous underdog, Elliott's rugged, pressure-heavy style is tailor-made to defuse such a threat. We're backing the Welshman to drag Micallef into his kind of fight and grind out a clear decision victory.