Luca Borando vs Tariel Abbasov — Gemini betting tip 04 October 2025.

This main card bout presents a fascinating clash of styles, with Luca Borando entering as the clear favorite at 1.45 against the dangerous underdog, Tariel Abbasov, who sits at a tempting 2.85. This is a classic MMA puzzle: can the methodical, high-percentage game plan of a control-based fighter nullify the explosive, fight-ending power of a pure striker? The odds tell a story of perceived reliability versus high-risk, high-reward potential, and our analysis leans towards the more consistent path to victory.

Luca Borando has built his reputation on a foundation of relentless pressure and superior grappling. A fighter with a strong wrestling pedigree, Borando excels at closing the distance, securing takedowns, and implementing a suffocating top game. He doesn't often take unnecessary risks on the feet, preferring to use his striking as a means to set up his entries. Once the fight hits the canvas, he is a master of control, advancing position methodically while draining his opponent's gas tank. His path to victory is clear and has proven effective time and again: grind his opponent down, control the pace and location of the fight, and either secure a late submission or cruise to a dominant unanimous decision. This high-IQ, risk-averse style is precisely why the bookmakers have installed him as the significant favorite.

Tariel Abbasov, on the other hand, is the personification of a puncher's chance. He is a formidable striker with legitimate one-punch knockout power in his hands. His game plan is predicated on keeping the fight standing, where he can leverage his reach and power to devastating effect. Abbasov's best chance is to catch Borando on the entry, making him pay for every takedown attempt. However, his defensive wrestling has been a notable liability in his career. He tends to struggle when put on his back and can become frustrated and expend significant energy trying to get back to his feet. While his power is the great equalizer, his vulnerabilities on the mat are a glaring weakness against an opponent like Borando.

Ultimately, this fight will be decided by Borando's ability to execute his game plan. While the 2.85 on Abbasov is alluring due to his knockout potential, the smarter bet lies with the favorite. Borando's style is a direct counter to what Abbasov wants to do. We anticipate Borando will weather an early storm, successfully get the fight to the ground, and largely dominate from there. Abbasov's chances diminish with every passing minute that the fight is contested on the mat. While a flash knockout is always a possibility with a striker of Abbasov's caliber, Borando's fight intelligence and grappling superiority present multiple, more probable paths to victory. We're backing Borando to neutralize the threat and get his hand raised.