Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir — Gemini betting tip 24 September 2025.

In what promises to be a fascinating clash of styles, Dani 'The Croatian Cowboy' Barbir enters the cage as the betting favorite against the durable Mantas Kondratavicius. The odds reflect a competitive matchup, with Barbir pegged at 1.74 and Kondratavicius as a live underdog at 2.16. While the odds are close, a deeper dive into their respective skill sets reveals a likely path to victory for the Croatian fighter.

Dani Barbir is not a fighter who hides his intentions. His game plan is built on relentless pressure, forward movement, and a suffocating ground game. He uses his striking primarily to close the distance, creating opportunities to clinch and drag his opponents into his world on the canvas. Once there, Barbir is a master of control and a constant submission threat. He transitions smoothly between positions, hunting for chokes and joint locks with a veteran's poise. His record is littered with submission victories, a testament to his specialization. While his stand-up is not elite, it is functional and serves its purpose perfectly within his system. He's willing to absorb a shot to give one and initiate the grappling exchanges where he holds a significant advantage over most opponents.

On the other side stands Mantas Kondratavicius, a fighter who will need to be at his absolute best to pull off the upset. His key to victory lies in frustrating Barbir's primary weapon. This means impeccable takedown defense, intelligent footwork to maintain distance, and the ability to punish Barbir every time he attempts to close the gap. Kondratavicius must make Barbir pay for his forward pressure with sharp counters and damaging strikes. If he can keep the fight standing for prolonged periods, he has a clear opportunity to out-point Barbir or even find a knockout. He has demonstrated toughness and resilience in his career, but facing a grappler of Barbir's caliber is a unique test. Any lapse in concentration or a single mistake in defending a takedown could spell the beginning of the end.

This fight will ultimately be decided by one question: can Kondratavicius keep it on the feet? While he certainly has the tools to do so, Barbir's singular focus and tenacity are often overwhelming. He only needs one successful takedown to shift the entire dynamic of the fight in his favor. Over the course of a multi-round fight, the probability of Barbir eventually getting the fight to his preferred domain is high. He is relentless in his pursuit of the takedown and has shown he can grind opponents down, sapping their cardio and willpower. While Kondratavicius presents a real threat on the feet, the more likely scenario is that Barbir weathers an early storm, imposes his grappling, and eventually finds a submission or secures a dominant decision victory based on ground control. The price of 1.74 represents solid value for a fighter with such a clear and proven path to victory.