Pat Sabatini vs Richie Lewis — Gemini betting tip 21 September 2025.

This matchup presents a fascinating clash of high-level grappling styles, pitting the proven MMA submission artist Pat Sabatini against the elite pure wrestler Richie Lewis. Sabatini has established himself as one of the most dangerous grapplers in the featherweight division, a BJJ black belt who relentlessly pursues takedowns to implement his suffocating top control and hunt for submissions.

Sabatini's entire game is built around getting the fight to the canvas. While his striking is functional, it primarily serves as a means to close distance and set up his wrestling entries. Once he gets a hold of his opponent, he is masterful at chain wrestling, transitioning between takedown attempts until he inevitably drags the fight to his world. On the mat, he is a constant threat, capable of finishing with a variety of chokes and joint locks. He has faced and defeated strong wrestlers before, proving his MMA-specific grappling is a significant level above most.

On the other side, Richie Lewis enters as a blue-chip prospect with a phenomenal wrestling background, having earned NCAA Division I All-American honors. His pedigree on the wrestling mats is, without question, superior to Sabatini's. Lewis possesses explosive power and the technical skill to take down almost anyone. However, MMA is not pure wrestling. Lewis is still relatively inexperienced in the sport, and his submission defense and striking are major question marks against a veteran like Sabatini. While he may be the better wrestler in a vacuum, a grappling exchange in an MMA fight introduces strikes and, most importantly, submissions from all positions.

The key to this fight will be whether Lewis’s wrestling can neutralize Sabatini’s submission-focused grappling. It's plausible Lewis could stuff takedowns or even land his own. The danger for him lies in the scrambles and extended ground exchanges where Sabatini's BJJ expertise will be the great equalizer. Sabatini only needs one small opening to lock in a fight-ending submission. While the odds of 1.20 on Sabatini offer very little betting value, they accurately reflect his status as the more complete and proven mixed martial artist. Lewis at 4.75 is a live underdog due to his athletic ceiling, but he is taking a massive step up in competition against a specialist whose specialty is the most direct counter to a developing MMA fighter. Sabatini's experience and submission arsenal should be the deciding factors.