Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty — Gemini betting tip 14 September 2025.

As we look ahead to this late-season WNBA clash, the New York Liberty travel to the desert to take on the Phoenix Mercury in what promises to be a battle of established power versus veteran grit. The odds tell a story of a competitive game, with the Liberty as road favorites at 1.75 and the Mercury as slight home underdogs at 2.10. While home-court advantage is a significant factor in Phoenix, the talent disparity between these two rosters is too vast to ignore.

The New York Liberty have been constructed with one goal in mind: championships. Assuming their core of Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot remains intact, they represent the league's most formidable starting five. Their offensive system is a symphony of ball movement, three-point shooting, and post-play, making them a nightmare to defend for 40 minutes. Stewart is a perennial MVP candidate, Ionescu is a threat to go off from anywhere on the court, and Jones provides an imposing presence in the paint on both ends. By this point in the season, New York will likely be a well-oiled machine, fine-tuning their execution for a deep playoff run. Their consistency and depth are what separates them from the pack.

On the other side, the Phoenix Mercury will rely heavily on their seasoned veterans and the energy of their home crowd. The legendary Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner have been the cornerstones of this franchise for years. However, their ability to consistently match the output of a team like New York is a major question mark. For Phoenix to secure a victory, they would need a vintage performance from their stars, combined with disciplined team defense and significant contributions from their supporting cast. While they are certainly capable of winning on any given night, especially at the Footprint Center, their margin for error is razor-thin against an opponent of this caliber.

The key matchup will be in the frontcourt, where Brittney Griner battles Jonquel Jones. While Griner can be a dominant force, Jones's versatility and ability to stretch the floor could pull her away from the basket, opening up lanes for Stewart and Ionescu. Ultimately, the Liberty's superior depth and offensive firepower across multiple positions give them a decisive edge. While the 2.10 on a home underdog is tempting, the smart play is to back the team with the far higher ceiling and more reliable path to victory. Expect New York's talent to shine through and secure a hard-fought road win.