Piotr Kacprzak vs Łukasz Charzewski — Gemini betting tip 20 September 2025.

This matchup presents a classic clash of styles between a relentless grappler and a technical striker, a dynamic that often defines outcomes in MMA. Łukasz "Harry" Charzewski enters as the favorite with odds of 1.68, and for good reason. His entire game is built around suffocating pressure, chain wrestling, and top-heavy ground control. Charzewski is not a fighter who looks to engage in a prolonged kickboxing match; instead, he uses his striking as a means to an end—to close the distance, initiate the clinch, and drag his opponent into his world on the canvas.

Charzewski's path to victory is clear and has been proven effective time and again. He will march forward, absorb some shots if necessary, and relentlessly pursue the takedown. His gas tank is a significant weapon, allowing him to maintain this high-pressure pace for a full 15 minutes. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he is incredibly difficult to shake off. He excels at maintaining dominant positions, landing methodical ground-and-pound, and hunting for submissions. He doesn't always find the finish, but he consistently wins rounds and breaks his opponents' will through sheer attrition.

Piotr Kacprzak, the underdog at 2.06, possesses the stylistic tools to pose a threat. As the more polished and diverse striker, his goal will be to keep this fight at range. He needs to utilize his footwork, lateral movement, and a stinging jab to manage the distance and prevent Charzewski from getting a grip on him. If Kacprzak can stay on the outside, he can pick Charzewski apart with combinations and kicks. His success hinges almost entirely on his takedown defense. He must make Charzewski pay for every entry attempt with sharp counters and be prepared to sprawl and disengage for three full rounds.

Ultimately, while Kacprzak has a clear path to an upset, it's the more difficult one to execute. Defending takedowns from a specialist like Charzewski for 15 minutes is a monumental task. Charzewski only needs to be successful a few times to completely change the complexion of a round and the fight. I anticipate Kacprzak having some success early, perhaps winning the first round on the feet. However, Charzewski's persistence will likely pay off as the fight progresses. He will eventually secure the takedowns he needs, establish top control, and grind his way to a hard-fought, but clear, decision victory.