Betting tips from AI for Ahmad Reda vs Jomar Paliwen, 17 December 2025.

I'm siding with the live underdog Jomar Paliwen at big value. The market has Ahmad Reda crushingly favored (1.06) while Paliwen sits at 11.38. Dan Rafael praises Reda's sharper footwork and the books are right to respect him, but this is a gritty 6-round Tokyo scrap where one shot can change everything.
Public money can overinflate short fights; whispers about Paliwen's raw knockout power are meaningful here. If Paliwen's real upset chance is even modestly above the implied ~8.8%, the +1038 price offers positive expected value. Small, value-first play: $1 on Paliwen.

The Boxing Bouts lightweight clash between Ahmad Reda and Jomar Paliwen in Tokyo presents a clear favorite according to bookmakers, who list Reda at a daunting 1.06. Veteran journalist Dan Rafael's prediction of Reda's sharper footwork overwhelming Paliwen early aligns perfectly with the market sentiment, as bettors are piling on the home fighter for a decisive win.

While Jomar Paliwen arrives as a 'live underdog' with intriguing 11.38 odds and whispers of raw knockout power that could 'flip the script,' this remains a long shot. The overwhelming consensus, supported by expert analysis and heavy betting action, points firmly to Ahmad Reda maintaining control and securing the victory. Despite the minimal profit on such steep odds, Reda is the most reliable choice for a profitable outcome in this bout.

The lightweight clash between Ahmad Reda and Jomar Paliwen in Tokyo shapes up as a classic favorite-versus-underdog scenario. Reda enters as the overwhelming favorite at 1.06, reflecting his superior technical prowess and sharper footwork that veteran journalist Dan Rafael highlights as potential difference-makers in this 6-round bout.

While the odds heavily favor Reda, smart bettors should note the whispers about Paliwen's raw knockout power. At 11.38, Paliwen represents a tempting lottery ticket for contrarian bettors, but the reality is his path to victory remains narrow against Reda's refined skillset.

Featured on the undercard of the Tsutsumi-Donaire headliner, this bout should showcase Reda's technical superiority. The betting market has spoken clearly with money piling on Reda, and despite Paliwen's puncher's chance, the favorite's ability to control distance and pace should lead to either a convincing decision or late stoppage in his favor.

In the gritty 6-round lightweight showdown in Tokyo, Ahmad Reda enters as the clear favorite against Jomar Paliwen, and for good reason. Veteran journalist Dan Rafael highlights Reda's sharper footwork, which could overwhelm the underdog early in this international bout tucked into a stacked card headlined by Seiya Tsutsumi vs. Nonito Donaire.

Bookies are all over Reda at 1.06, with bettors piling on for a decisive win, reflecting his technical edge in the lightweight division. While Paliwen brings raw knockout power that whispers in betting circles about a potential upset at 11.38, the draw at 26.00 seems unlikely in this fireworks-filled scrap.

Reda's experience and precision make him the smart play for a profitable bet, likely ending it before Paliwen's power can flip the script. This matchup adds heat alongside bouts like Charlie Kazzi vs. Blair Geraghty, but Reda should dominate.

Veteran boxing journalist Dan Rafael spotlights this lightweight clash, predicting Reda's sharper footwork could overwhelm the underdog Paliwen early. The bookies' heavy favoritism for Ahmad Reda at 1.06 reflects this consensus, but whispers in betting circles hint at Jomar Paliwen's raw knockout power as a live threat that could flip the script. However, Reda's technical edge and the high-stakes Tokyo card environment suggest he'll manage the distance and avoid the underdog's power shots.

While Paliwen's 11.38 odds offer a massive payout, the risk is substantial against a fighter widely expected to control the pace. The value, despite the low return, lies with the more skilled and prepared favorite to secure a decisive win.

Ahmad Reda enters the ring as a massive favorite with odds of 1.06, reflecting his reputation for technical precision and movement. Veteran journalist Dan Rafael highlights Reda’s footwork as a potential game-changer, suggesting he could dominate early. However, Jomar Paliwen, listed at 11.38, is no ordinary underdog. Betting circles are abuzz about his raw knockout power, which could disrupt Reda’s rhythm if he finds an opening. The draw sits at 26.00, but given both fighters’ aggressive styles, it seems unlikely.

Reda’s experience and calculated approach make him a safe bet, yet the steep odds offer minimal reward for the risk. Meanwhile, Paliwen’s unpredictability introduces an intriguing angle. While he may lack refinement, his ability to land devastating blows cannot be ignored, especially in shorter bouts like this 6-rounder. The Tokyo setting adds pressure, but Paliwen thrives in hostile environments, making him a live underdog worth considering.

Ultimately, Reda’s consistency and favored status are hard to overlook. His odds suggest overwhelming confidence from bookmakers, reinforced by public betting trends. Despite Paliwen’s puncher’s chance, Reda’s superior skill set should guide him to victory.