Betting tips from AI for Air Force Falcons vs New Mexico Lobos, 23 November 2025.

This matchup sets up as strength-on-weakness in multiple phases, and that tilts the moneyline value toward New Mexico. The Lobos arrive 7-3 with a balanced offense and a run defense that has been a season-long pillar. Air Force, at 3-7, is expected to be without Szarka again, which has stripped their passing threat and made them one-dimensional. That is a poor fit against a Lobos front that has consistently won early downs, forcing opponents into predictable passing situations.

Air Force’s defense has improved lately, but its secondary remains the soft spot. New Mexico can lean on the ground game to stay on schedule, then take selective shots to exploit that back end. Even in cold, late-November conditions at Falcon Stadium, the Lobos’ approach travels: establish the run, work play action, and avoid giving Air Force short fields. The altitude edge is muted here because New Mexico also plays at elevation, and their depth chart trends healthier at the key spots.

On the other side, Air Force’s path requires grinding, mistake-free drives and third-down conversions. That was the missing piece in the loss to UConn: the Falcons outgained the Huskies but couldn’t finish drives or convert key chances. Against a sturdier New Mexico run defense, those margins get thinner. If the Lobos force third-and-medium-plus, Air Force’s limited passing profile becomes a real constraint.

The market prices this right of a field goal, with New Mexico favored by 3.5 and a moneyline around 1.59 versus Air Force at 2.46. Implied probabilities sit near 62.8% for the Lobos and 40.7% for the Falcons, with standard vig. My handicap lands New Mexico closer to 66–68% to win outright given matchup fit and current form, which creates a small but real edge on the Lobos moneyline.

From a $1-stake perspective, the expected value checks out. At 1.59, a win returns roughly $0.592 profit; with a 66% fair win rate, EV is about +$0.05 per dollar. Conversely, even a generous 34–36% Air Force win probability fails to outperform the 2.46 price. With weather likely suppressing explosive variance and favoring the more complete roster, the straightforward, lower-variance play is New Mexico on the moneyline.

Recommendation: Bet New Mexico Lobos ML 1.59 for a modest, positive-expected-value position.

This Mountain West clash presents a classic case of two teams on divergent paths. The New Mexico Lobos, sitting at 7-3 and still in the hunt for a conference title, travel to face a 3-7 Air Force Falcons squad that is playing out the string. The betting line reflects this disparity, with New Mexico positioned as the clear favorite at 1.59, and for good reason.

The central issue for Air Force is the health of their offense. The likely absence of starting quarterback Zac Szarka is a devastating blow to their triple-option attack. As noted by ESPN analyst Shaun Carney, without Szarka's dual-threat capability, the Falcons' offense becomes one-dimensional and predictable. This plays directly into the primary strength of the Lobos: a formidable run defense that has been a cornerstone of their success all season. Expect New Mexico to load the box, challenge Air Force to throw the ball, and suffocate their ground game at the line of scrimmage.

On the other side of the ball, the matchup is just as favorable for New Mexico. The Lobos boast a balanced offense with a strong ground game of their own and a passing attack capable of exploiting weaknesses. They'll be facing an Air Force defense whose secondary is a known vulnerability. While the Falcons' defensive unit has shown signs of improvement lately, they haven't faced an offense with this much at stake and this many ways to attack. New Mexico should be able to move the ball consistently, both on the ground and through the air, putting pressure on a Falcons offense that has struggled to score.

Air Force's recent 26-6 loss to UConn is a telling indicator of their current state. Despite outgaining their opponent, they repeatedly failed to convert opportunities into points, a sign of a team lacking offensive execution and confidence. While playing at home in the late-November Colorado weather might offer a slight advantage, it's not enough to bridge the talent and motivational gap. New Mexico has everything to play for, a favorable matchup on both sides of the ball, and the momentum of a winning season. Backing the Lobos at 1.59 is the logical play, as they are well-equipped to control the game and secure a crucial victory.

This Mountain West matchup presents a compelling betting opportunity with New Mexico favored at 1.59 against Air Force at 2.46. The key factor driving this line is Air Force's quarterback situation, as they're likely without their offensive centerpiece Szarka, which has severely limited their passing attack and made them one-dimensional.

New Mexico enters at 7-3 with legitimate Mountain West title hopes, while Air Force sits at a disappointing 3-7. The Lobos have shown real improvement this season, particularly on defense where their run stopping ability has been a consistent strength. This creates a perfect storm against an Air Force offense that relies heavily on their ground game but now faces a defense specifically built to contain it.

The venue factor cannot be overlooked. Playing at Falcon Stadium in late November means potentially harsh weather conditions that typically favor ground-based attacks. However, this actually works against Air Force in this matchup because New Mexico's run defense is their calling card. Meanwhile, the Lobos possess the balanced offensive attack needed to exploit Air Force's secondary, which remains their defensive weakness despite recent improvements.

Air Force's recent 26-6 loss to UConn is telling - they outgained their opponent but couldn't convert opportunities, highlighting their offensive limitations without their starting quarterback. New Mexico's ability to control games on both sides of the ball, combined with their motivation to stay in the conference race, gives them multiple paths to victory.

While Air Force's defense has improved recently, allowing just 83 points in their last four games, they're facing a New Mexico offense that can attack through multiple dimensions. The Lobos' ground game can match Air Force's physicality while their passing attack can exploit the secondary vulnerabilities that persist for the Falcons.

As we gear up for this Mountain West clash between the Air Force Falcons and the New Mexico Lobos on November 23, 2025, at Falcon Stadium, the betting landscape looks intriguing. The Lobos are listed as favorites at 1.59, while the Falcons sit as underdogs at 2.46. New Mexico's 7-3 record keeps them in the hunt for the conference title, and their recent form suggests they're peaking at the right time. With a stout run defense that's been a cornerstone of their success this season, they're well-equipped to handle Air Force's run-heavy offense, especially with the Falcons missing their starting QB, Szarka.

Air Force, stumbling along at 3-7, has shown some defensive improvement lately, allowing just 83 points over their last four games compared to 227 in the previous five. That's a positive sign, but their secondary remains vulnerable, which could be exploited by New Mexico's balanced attack. The Lobos' ground game is robust, and their passing options should find openings against a Falcons defense that's still patching holes. Former QB Shaun Carney pointed out how Air Force's limited passing threat without Szarka plays right into New Mexico's hands, as the Lobos can stack the box against the run.

Weather could play a factor here in late November Colorado—cold temps might favor the run and hinder passing efficiency, potentially leading to a clock-controlling affair. Experts like Doc’s Sports note New Mexico's 'real steps forward' this year, even if their last win was shaky. Meanwhile, Air Force's recent 26-6 loss to UConn highlighted missed opportunities despite outgaining their opponents, underscoring their offensive woes.

Historically, the over has cashed in 10 of the last 11 meetings, but with both teams leaning on the ground and Air Force's run-first approach meeting New Mexico's tough defense, this might buck the trend toward a lower-scoring game. Still, the Lobos' motivation for a conference push gives them an edge. Betting on New Mexico at 1.59 feels like the smart play here—their overall talent and defensive strength should overpower a Falcons squad that's clearly struggling without key pieces. If you're looking for value, consider the Lobos covering the 3.5-point spread, but straight up, they're my pick to win and keep their title hopes alive.

Breaking down this Mountain West matchup, the New Mexico Lobos are the clear betting value at 1.59. Their 7-3 record and continued involvement in the conference title race provides a significant motivational edge over a 3-7 Air Force squad whose season is effectively over. The injury to Air Force's key offensive piece, Szarka, has crippled their already limited passing game, making them one-dimensional and predictable. This plays directly into New Mexico's biggest strength: a legitimate run defense that is well-equipped to handle the Falcons' signature triple-option attack.

Shaun Carney's analysis is spot-on; without a credible passing threat, the Lobos can stack the box and dare Air Force to beat them through the air, a scenario that has consistently failed for the Falcons. While Air Force's defense has shown recent improvement, their vulnerable secondary is a massive liability against a balanced New Mexico offense. The Lobos' ground game can control the clock, and their passing attack is perfectly positioned to exploit that secondary weakness, especially if the game forces Air Force to play from behind.

Although the historical trend points to high-scoring affairs, the on-field circumstances have shifted. The combination of Air Force's offensive limitations, New Mexico's stout run defense, and potential cold weather in Colorado Springs all point towards a game where possessions are limited and points are at a premium. However, New Mexico's superior offensive balance and far stronger team motivation are the decisive factors. They have multiple paths to victory, while Air Force has a single, heavily-contested one. The odds of 1.59 for the Lobos represent a solid price for the much more complete and driven team.

This matchup between the Air Force Falcons and New Mexico Lobos presents an intriguing betting opportunity, especially considering the dynamics at play. On paper, New Mexico enters as the favorite with odds of 1.59, while Air Force is the underdog at 2.46. These odds reflect not only the teams’ current records but also their recent performances and key storylines surrounding this game. Let’s break down the factors that make this contest so compelling and why New Mexico appears to hold the edge here.
Air Force’s struggles on offense have been well-documented since losing starting quarterback Szarka. Without him, the Falcons lack a credible passing threat, which severely limits their ability to keep defenses honest. This flaw becomes even more glaring against New Mexico, whose run defense has been one of the strongest in the Mountain West Conference this season. As Shaun Carney pointed out, the Lobos are likely to stack the box and dare Air Force to beat them through the air—a tall order for a team missing its offensive centerpiece. Even though Air Force managed to outgain UConn in their last game, they still fell 26-6 due to critical mistakes and missed opportunities. Such inefficiencies could prove costly against a disciplined New Mexico squad.
On the other side, New Mexico enters this contest riding high at 7-3, with legitimate hopes of contending for the Mountain West title. Their balanced offensive attack should give them multiple avenues to exploit Air Force’s vulnerabilities. While their ground game will naturally face resistance from Air Force’s improving defense, their passing attack may find success targeting the Falcons’ weaker secondary. Given the cold weather expected in Colorado, it’s reasonable to expect some adjustments, but New Mexico’s versatility gives them a significant advantage. Furthermore, their defense has proven capable of containing strong rushing attacks, making them a formidable opponent for Air Force’s run-heavy system."The historical trend of high-scoring games between these two teams adds another layer of complexity. The over has hit in 10 of the last 11 meetings, suggesting that both offenses can typically move the ball effectively. However, given Air Force’s diminished offensive capabilities and New Mexico’s stout run defense, we might see a departure from this pattern. A lower-scoring affair seems plausible, particularly if New Mexico opts to control the clock with methodical drives. If the Lobos execute their game plan efficiently, they could grind out a win without needing to light up the scoreboard.