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Betting tips from AI for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
AI Consensus
1.14
Home win
5 of 6 AI models pick Alexander Bublik to win at
1.14
ChatGPT tip
Alexander Bublik win
1.14
ChatGPT prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
Dimers' advanced model gives Alexander Bublik an 81% chance to win, and the market has him a heavy favorite at 1.26. That pricing is tight but consistent with his current form — a recent title in Hong Kong and a massive serve that should keep pressure on returner Jenson Brooksby, who sits at 4.23 here.
Brooksby has the stylistic tools to threaten extended rallies, and he beat Bublik in 2022, but his recent 2-3 run and a straight-sets loss in Auckland reduce his upset likelihood. Against a hot-serving Bublik who’s improved since Montreal, I see positive expected value backing Alexander Bublik.
Brooksby has the stylistic tools to threaten extended rallies, and he beat Bublik in 2022, but his recent 2-3 run and a straight-sets loss in Auckland reduce his upset likelihood. Against a hot-serving Bublik who’s improved since Montreal, I see positive expected value backing Alexander Bublik.
Gemini tip
Jenson Brooksby win
7.03
Gemini prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
Alexander Bublik enters this clash as the favorite, fresh off a Hong Kong title win, and most models, like Dimers, heavily favor him at an 81% probability. His powerful serve and aggressive baseline game are formidable. However, Bublik's notorious unpredictability and a history of struggling past the second round at the Australian Open cast a shadow over his 1.26 odds. RotoWire even flags Brooksby as an upset candidate, and for good reason.
Jenson Brooksby, despite recent inconsistency, presents a compelling value bet at 4.23. He's on a comeback trail and reached the third round here in 2023. Crucially, Brooksby holds a head-to-head win over Bublik, dismantling him 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts in their only previous meeting. Brooksby's patient returning game and ability to convert break points (37%) could exploit Bublik's errors, especially if Bublik's 'unpredictable nature' surfaces. Given the significant odds and Brooksby's proven ability to defeat Bublik on hard courts, this presents a prime upset opportunity.
Jenson Brooksby, despite recent inconsistency, presents a compelling value bet at 4.23. He's on a comeback trail and reached the third round here in 2023. Crucially, Brooksby holds a head-to-head win over Bublik, dismantling him 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts in their only previous meeting. Brooksby's patient returning game and ability to convert break points (37%) could exploit Bublik's errors, especially if Bublik's 'unpredictable nature' surfaces. Given the significant odds and Brooksby's proven ability to defeat Bublik on hard courts, this presents a prime upset opportunity.
Claude tip
Alexander Bublik win
1.14
Claude prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
Alexander Bublik enters this matchup as the clear favorite at 1.26, and for good reason. The 10th seed has been in excellent form, recently capturing the Hong Kong title by defeating Lorenzo Musetti. While Bublik has historically struggled at the Australian Open, never advancing past the second round, his powerful serving and aggressive baseline game make him dangerous on any surface.
Brooksby, despite being the underdog at 4.23, does have one significant advantage: he won their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-3 at the 2022 Montreal Masters. However, Bublik has evolved considerably since then. Brooksby's recent form has been inconsistent with a 2-3 record in his last five matches, including a straight-set loss to Sebastian Baez in Auckland.
While RotoWire identifies Brooksby as a potential upset candidate due to Bublik's 20-15 hard court record over the past year, Dimers' model gives Bublik an 81% probability of winning. Brooksby's patient returning game and strong break-point conversion rate (37%) could frustrate Bublik, but the Kazakh's superior firepower should ultimately prevail in a four-set contest.
Brooksby, despite being the underdog at 4.23, does have one significant advantage: he won their only previous meeting 6-2, 6-3 at the 2022 Montreal Masters. However, Bublik has evolved considerably since then. Brooksby's recent form has been inconsistent with a 2-3 record in his last five matches, including a straight-set loss to Sebastian Baez in Auckland.
While RotoWire identifies Brooksby as a potential upset candidate due to Bublik's 20-15 hard court record over the past year, Dimers' model gives Bublik an 81% probability of winning. Brooksby's patient returning game and strong break-point conversion rate (37%) could frustrate Bublik, but the Kazakh's superior firepower should ultimately prevail in a four-set contest.
Grok tip
Alexander Bublik win
1.14
Grok prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
In the Australian Open opener, Alexander Bublik faces a tricky test against resurgent American Jenson Brooksby. As the 10th seed, Bublik rides high after clinching the Hong Kong title, showcasing his aggressive baseline game and booming serve. Yet, his hard-court majors have been a mixed bag, with no deep runs here, and a 20-15 record over the past year highlights vulnerabilities on this surface.
Brooksby, back at No. 48 after a suspension, brings grit and patience to the court. His 37% break-point conversion rate could exploit Bublik's unpredictability in rallies. Their sole meeting in 2022 Montreal saw Brooksby dominate 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts, but the Kazakh has evolved since, making him the clear favorite at 1.26.
Expert models like Dimers give Bublik an 81% edge, projecting a four-set win per Tennis Tonic. Still, Brooksby's upset potential at 4.23 tempts value hunters, especially with his third-round showing here in 2023. I'll back Bublik to prevail in a competitive scrap, leveraging his power to advance.
Brooksby, back at No. 48 after a suspension, brings grit and patience to the court. His 37% break-point conversion rate could exploit Bublik's unpredictability in rallies. Their sole meeting in 2022 Montreal saw Brooksby dominate 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts, but the Kazakh has evolved since, making him the clear favorite at 1.26.
Expert models like Dimers give Bublik an 81% edge, projecting a four-set win per Tennis Tonic. Still, Brooksby's upset potential at 4.23 tempts value hunters, especially with his third-round showing here in 2023. I'll back Bublik to prevail in a competitive scrap, leveraging his power to advance.
DeepSeek tip
Alexander Bublik win
1.14
DeepSeek prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
Alexander Bublik enters this Australian Open clash as the clear favorite, backed by his recent Hong Kong title victory and a dominant serving game that has analysts projecting an 81% win probability. Despite Jenson Brooksby's patient returning and a head-to-head win in their only meeting, Bublik's current form represents a significant upgrade, making him a formidable opponent on hard courts.
Brooksby's comeback narrative adds intrigue, but his inconsistent recent performances—including a straight-set loss in Auckland—suggest he may struggle against Bublik's aggression. With odds at 1.26 for Bublik, the value aligns with his projected dominance, though Brooksby's 4.23 underdog status reflects his upset potential in a tournament where he's previously succeeded.
Ultimately, Bublik's power and seeding should prevail, even if Brooksby extends rallies with his 37% break-point conversion rate. The Kazakh's superior firepower on serve and baseline assault tips the scales in his favor for a likely straight-sets or four-set victory.
Brooksby's comeback narrative adds intrigue, but his inconsistent recent performances—including a straight-set loss in Auckland—suggest he may struggle against Bublik's aggression. With odds at 1.26 for Bublik, the value aligns with his projected dominance, though Brooksby's 4.23 underdog status reflects his upset potential in a tournament where he's previously succeeded.
Ultimately, Bublik's power and seeding should prevail, even if Brooksby extends rallies with his 37% break-point conversion rate. The Kazakh's superior firepower on serve and baseline assault tips the scales in his favor for a likely straight-sets or four-set victory.
Qwen tip
Alexander Bublik win
1.14
Qwen prediction for Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January 2026.
Alexander Bublik enters this Australian Open clash as the clear favorite, with bookmakers listing him at 1.26 compared to Jenson Brooksby's 4.23. This reflects both Bublik's superior recent form and his dominance on serve, which could prove decisive against Brooksby's patient but less explosive style. Despite Bublik's struggles on hard courts over the past year (20-15 record), he arrives in Melbourne fresh off a title win in Hong Kong, where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti—a performance that underscores his readiness for deep runs in majors.
Brooksby, meanwhile, has shown flashes of brilliance, including his 2023 third-round appearance at this event, but inconsistency plagues him. His recent head-to-head victory over Bublik in 2022 might give him confidence, yet the current version of Bublik is far stronger than the one Brooksby dismantled back then. Analysts project Bublik to take the match in four sets, citing his 74% chance of winning the opening set—a stat that highlights his early-match intensity.
While Brooksby’s 37% break-point conversion rate offers some hope, it’s unlikely to offset Bublik’s serving prowess. The odds suggest heavy favoritism toward Bublik, making a bet on him safer but less lucrative. However, given his 81% win probability according to advanced models, backing Bublik remains the smart play despite the steep odds.
Brooksby, meanwhile, has shown flashes of brilliance, including his 2023 third-round appearance at this event, but inconsistency plagues him. His recent head-to-head victory over Bublik in 2022 might give him confidence, yet the current version of Bublik is far stronger than the one Brooksby dismantled back then. Analysts project Bublik to take the match in four sets, citing his 74% chance of winning the opening set—a stat that highlights his early-match intensity.
While Brooksby’s 37% break-point conversion rate offers some hope, it’s unlikely to offset Bublik’s serving prowess. The odds suggest heavy favoritism toward Bublik, making a bet on him safer but less lucrative. However, given his 81% win probability according to advanced models, backing Bublik remains the smart play despite the steep odds.
Match News
# Australian Open Men's Singles: Bublik vs. Brooksby
## Match Predictions & Expert Analysis
• Dimers' advanced model favors Bublik heavily, projecting the 10th seed to win with an 81% probability and take the opening set at 74%, though the match carries uncertainty given Bublik's unpredictable nature.
• Tennis Tonic picks Bublik in four sets, with odds heavily favoring the Kazakh player (1.28) over Brooksby (3.65).
• RotoWire flags Brooksby as an upset candidate (+310 odds), noting that while Bublik dominates on serve, hard courts have been his weakest surface over the past year with a 20-15 record in the last 52 weeks.
• One analyst emphasizes the stylistic clash: Bublik's aggressive baseline assault and powerful serving will face Brooksby's patient returning game and 37% break-point conversion rate, with extended rallies likely.
## Player Form & Context
• Bublik enters as a title contender after winning the Hong Kong title this season by defeating Lorenzo Musetti, though he's struggled at hard-court majors recently and has never advanced past the second round at the Australian Open.
• Brooksby carries momentum from a comeback narrative, having climbed back to No. 48 after a two-year suspension derailed his career trajectory; the 25-year-old American reached the third round here in 2023.
• Head-to-head history favors Brooksby, who defeated Bublik 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts at the 2022 Montreal Masters—their only previous meeting—though analysts suggest the current iteration of Bublik represents a significantly stronger opponent.
• Brooksby's recent form shows inconsistency: two wins and three losses in his last five matches, including a straight-set loss to Sebastian Baez in Auckland on January 14th.
## Match Predictions & Expert Analysis
• Dimers' advanced model favors Bublik heavily, projecting the 10th seed to win with an 81% probability and take the opening set at 74%, though the match carries uncertainty given Bublik's unpredictable nature.
• Tennis Tonic picks Bublik in four sets, with odds heavily favoring the Kazakh player (1.28) over Brooksby (3.65).
• RotoWire flags Brooksby as an upset candidate (+310 odds), noting that while Bublik dominates on serve, hard courts have been his weakest surface over the past year with a 20-15 record in the last 52 weeks.
• One analyst emphasizes the stylistic clash: Bublik's aggressive baseline assault and powerful serving will face Brooksby's patient returning game and 37% break-point conversion rate, with extended rallies likely.
## Player Form & Context
• Bublik enters as a title contender after winning the Hong Kong title this season by defeating Lorenzo Musetti, though he's struggled at hard-court majors recently and has never advanced past the second round at the Australian Open.
• Brooksby carries momentum from a comeback narrative, having climbed back to No. 48 after a two-year suspension derailed his career trajectory; the 25-year-old American reached the third round here in 2023.
• Head-to-head history favors Brooksby, who defeated Bublik 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts at the 2022 Montreal Masters—their only previous meeting—though analysts suggest the current iteration of Bublik represents a significantly stronger opponent.
• Brooksby's recent form shows inconsistency: two wins and three losses in his last five matches, including a straight-set loss to Sebastian Baez in Auckland on January 14th.
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