Betting tips from AI for Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Moreno, 31 December 2025.

I recommend a $1 bet on Brandon Moreno at 4.10. The price offers clear value in a trilogy capper where one razor-thin card and wild exchanges decided their last meeting.
Their UFC 290 war won Fight of the Year and produced controversial judging — Pantoja scraped a split decision while Moreno inflicted late damage and control. Pantoja has been strong since, but the rivalry’s history shows these fights are extremely close. Bookmakers have Pantoja at 1.23, which compresses the market; if Moreno’s true win chance is nearer 30–35% (reasonable given the styles and motivation for revenge), 4.10 offers positive expected value. Small, value-focused wager on Moreno.

The trilogy bout between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno is set to deliver fireworks, a rematch of their epic UFC 290 clash that was aptly named 'Fight of the Year.' Pantoja emerged victorious via a razor-thin split decision, with many cards scoring it 48-47 in his favor, despite Moreno's late surge of 'savage damage and back-riding control.' The controversial 49-46 scorecard for Moreno further underscores just how close that encounter truly was.

While Pantoja has looked dominant since dethroning Moreno, reflected in his heavy favorite odds of 1.23, the history between these two cannot be ignored. Moreno, battling back from previous title losses, is hungry for revenge. The odds of 4.10 for Moreno present significant value. Given the incredibly tight margin of their last fight and the inherent unpredictability of a high-stakes trilogy, betting on the underdog with such favorable odds appears to be the most profitable play.

Alexandre Pantoja enters this trilogy bout with significant momentum and a psychological edge after their razor-thin split decision at UFC 290. While that fight earned Fight of the Year honors, Pantoja's grappling superiority and control time proved decisive despite Moreno's late surge.

The 1.23 odds heavily favor the champion, and rightfully so. Pantoja has shown remarkable improvement since their last meeting, particularly in his takedown defense and striking efficiency. Moreno at 4.10 offers intriguing underdog value, but his path to victory remains narrow.

The previous fight's controversial 49-46 Moreno scorecard from one judge suggests some saw the fight differently, but Pantoja's championship mettle has only strengthened since claiming the belt. His ability to control positioning and threaten submissions gives him multiple paths to victory, while Moreno relies heavily on volume striking and cardio advantages that may not be enough against an evolved Pantoja.

The flyweight division is heating up with this trilogy showdown between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Brandon Moreno, set to cap off a rivalry that's already delivered MMA gold. Their UFC 290 clash in 2023 was pure fire—Combat Press's Fight of the Year—with Pantoja snatching the belt via a razor-thin split decision after five rounds of non-stop chaos, elbows flying, takedowns landing, and brutal ground exchanges. That controversial 49-46 score for Moreno on one card only amplified the drama, but Pantoja's grit shone through, edging it 48-47 on the others despite Moreno's late surge and back-riding control.

Since dethroning Moreno, Pantoja has been on a tear, dominating contenders and solidifying his reign with suffocating grappling and relentless pressure. Moreno, ever the warrior, has clawed back from setbacks like his Figueiredo losses, but the champ's momentum feels unbreakable. At 1.23 for Pantoja and 4.10 for Moreno, the odds scream value on the favorite—I'm betting my $1 on Pantoja to defend, turning this hype into profit as he avenges any doubts with another hard-fought win.

The UFC flyweight trilogy capper between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno is set to deliver another classic, following their 2023 Fight of the Year at UFC 290 where Pantoja won via controversial split decision.

Pantoja has since solidified his reign with key victories, showcasing grit and control, while Moreno's resilience and hunger for revenge add intrigue. However, the champ's ability to navigate chaos and edge tight bouts gives him the edge.

With odds at 1.23, Pantoja is a heavy favorite, but Moreno at 4.10 offers value in a matchup known for unpredictability.

The upcoming trilogy fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Moreno promises fireworks, given their storied history in the octagon. Their last clash at UFC 290 was nothing short of legendary, earning Fight of the Year honors thanks to relentless action and razor-thin margins. Pantoja narrowly edged out a split decision victory with scores like 48-47, though one judge controversially saw it 49-46 for Moreno, adding fuel to the fire for this rematch.

Pantoja enters as the favorite with odds of 1.23, reflecting his status as the reigning champion and consistent performer. His ability to grind through adversity while maintaining composure has been key to his success. Moreno, on the other hand, sits at underdog odds of 4.10. Despite losing twice to Pantoja, Moreno’s resilience is unmatched—he’s shown he can go blow-for-blow with elite opponents and even dominate late rounds when fatigue sets in.

However, betting trends favor Pantoja here. He’s proven adaptable against Moreno's aggressive style, mixing takedowns with sharp striking. The odds suggest oddsmakers see Moreno needing another near-flawless performance to reclaim gold. While the potential payout for a Moreno upset is tempting, backing Pantoja aligns with both form and historical outcomes.