Betting tips from AI for Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van, 01 January 2026.

This reads like a classic passing-of-the-torch rematch. Joshua Van is 24, riding a flawless 4-0 run in 2025 and he stole the belt at UFC 323 when Pantoja’s arm snapped just 26 seconds into their fight — a shocking finish that left the division stunned. Van’s blend of explosive striking and a composed mentality after chaotic last fight gives him clear momentum.
Pantoja remains one of the breed’s all-time greats with three defenses, but the awkward arm injury and how it happened leave legitimate questions about durability and ring-rust recovery. The market has Pantoja as a heavy favorite 1.38, while Van sits at 3.20. I see real value on Van here: he already beat Pantoja under pressure, he’s on a run, and the payout at 3.20 compensates for the risk. Pick Van.

The flyweight division is buzzing after the dramatic turn of events at UFC 323, where Joshua Van snatched the title from Alexandre Pantoja. While the win came via injury, with Pantoja's arm snapping just 26 seconds in, it's impossible to ignore the momentum Joshua Van brings into this rematch. Van, the 24-year-old phenom, capped a flawless 4-0 run in 2025, showcasing his prowess with wins over Rei Tsuruya, Bruno Silva, and a record-setting striking war with Brandon Royval. He's on an undeniable upward trajectory, proving he's far more than just an opportunistic champion.

Pantoja, despite his 'epic reign' and three defenses, faces a monumental challenge. Recovering from a catastrophic arm injury, especially one sustained so quickly in a high-stakes fight, carries significant physical and psychological hurdles. The odds list Pantoja as a heavy favorite at 1.38, but this seems to undervalue the impact of his injury and Van's current form. Van's odds at 3.20 offer compelling value. This isn't just about a fluke win; it's about a rising star facing a champion returning from a brutal, fight-ending injury. The smart money is on Van to solidify his reign.

This rematch has a clear storyline after Van's shocking title win via Pantoja's freak arm injury. The 1.38 odds favoring Pantoja suggest bookmakers view the 26-second ending as fluky rather than decisive. Pantoja was one of the division's greatest champions before the injury, and his experience edge remains significant.

However, I'm backing Joshua Van at 3.20 value. The young champion has shown remarkable development, going 4-0 in 2025 with impressive victories over quality opponents like Royval. While the title win came via injury, Van was already engaging aggressively and has proven his championship mettle.

Pantoja returns from a catastrophic arm break, which raises serious questions about his physical and psychological recovery. At 34, coming back from such trauma is challenging. Meanwhile, Van has championship confidence and momentum on his side. The underdog price offers tremendous value for a fighter who's legitimately elite.

In the flyweight rematch that's got the MMA world buzzing, Alexandre Pantoja steps back into the Octagon against Joshua Van on New Year's Day 2026. Pantoja, the grizzled veteran whose reign was cut short by a freak arm injury just 26 seconds into their first clash at UFC 323, is back with a vengeance. That night, Van's explosive takedown turned into heartbreak as Pantoja's arm buckled midair on a caught head kick— a fluke that handed the 24-year-old phenom the belt and made him the second-youngest champ ever. But Pantoja's no flash in the pan; his three epic defenses proved he's the division's GOAT, with elite grappling and cardio that wear down even the hottest prospects.

Van's been flawless since, capping a 4-0 2025 run with wins over Tsuruya, Silva, and a striking clinic against Royval. The Myanmar-born Houston fighter's youth and power are undeniable, but facing a healthy Pantoja—without the injury wildcard—changes everything. At 1.38, Pantoja's the chalk for a reason: his experience trumps Van's momentum. Van's 3.20 offers value for the upset, but I see Pantoja grinding out a submission win in round three, reclaiming his throne. Bet the house on the Brazilian's resilience—this rematch screams redemption.

The shocking UFC 323 finish, where Joshua Van claimed the title after Alexandre Pantoja's arm snapped just 26 seconds in, reshapes this matchup. Pantoja's injury and the end of his storied reign create major durability concerns, while Van's classy post-fight demeanor and flawless 4-0 run in 2025 signal a champion in peak form.

Betting odds list Pantoja as a heavy favorite at 1.38, but that undervalues Van's explosive momentum and proven ability. At 3.20, Van offers exceptional value; backing the younger, confident titleholder is the smart play for profit.

This matchup between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van is a fascinating clash of experience versus rising momentum. Pantoja, a dominant force in the flyweight division with three successful title defenses, suffered a catastrophic injury during their last encounter, which handed Van the belt in just 26 seconds. While Pantoja’s track record screams resilience and skill, his odds at 1.38 reflect the betting market's confidence in his return to form. However, it’s impossible to ignore Van’s meteoric rise. The young champion has silenced doubters with a flawless 4-0 run in 2025, including a striking masterclass against Brandon Royval that set records.

Pantoja’s grappling acumen and strategic brilliance are undeniable, but injuries of this magnitude can leave lingering doubts about performance and durability. On the other hand, Van’s adaptability and composure under pressure make him a dangerous opponent, even as the underdog at 3.20. His respectful demeanor post-fight and acknowledgment of Pantoja’s greatness show maturity beyond his years, suggesting he won’t be overwhelmed by the stakes.

Given Van’s current momentum and ability to capitalize on opportunities, he seems poised to retain his title. Betting on Van offers significant value, especially considering his proven ability to perform when it matters most.