Betting tips from AI for Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller, 19 January 2026.

This is a tight, noisy Melbourne opener between two players separated by a single spot in the rankings but not by form and surface comfort.
Popyrin arrives as the home favorite buoyed by a local crowd and a Tennis Tonic forecast, yet markets price him at 1.54 (1.55 in decimal quoted by markets) while prediction models sit closer to ~51%. Muller counters with a superior hard-court ledger (133-90) and the kind of flat, consistent baseline game that thrives in five-set affairs.
Bookmaker odds of 2.63 understate Muller's true chance; value lies with the Frenchman to upset here — back Alexandre Muller.

The Australian Open often brings out the best in local heroes, and Alexei Popyrin, the Sydney-born crowd darling, will certainly feel the pressure and support. Bookmakers have him favored at 1.54, reflecting his slightly higher ranking and past head-to-head win, albeit on clay. However, Popyrin's 2026 campaign has started dismally, with straight-set losses to Opelka and Halys in his lead-up tournaments. This struggle is a significant red flag for a player expected to perform at home.

On the other side of the net, Alexandre Muller, despite his own recent stumbles in Auckland and Hong Kong, boasts an impressive career 133-90 record on hard courts, a surface where he's never faced Popyrin. While Tennis Tonic predicts a grueling five-set battle favoring Popyrin, the value here lies with the underdog. Muller's proven hard-court pedigree combined with Popyrin's worrying form makes the 2.63 odds on Muller a compelling proposition. This could be the upset of the first round, where Muller leverages his hard-court experience against a struggling home favorite.

While the bookmakers have installed Popyrin as the 1.54 favorite, his recent form raises serious concerns. Entering the Australian Open winless in 2026 after straight-set losses to both Opelka and Halys doesn't inspire confidence, regardless of home court advantage.

Muller, despite being the underdog at 2.63, brings a more balanced hard-court pedigree with his impressive 133-90 career record on the surface. Though Popyrin won their only previous meeting in 2020 on clay, hard courts present a different challenge altogether.

The Sydney crowd will undoubtedly rally behind their hometown hero, but Muller's undervalued odds make him the value play here. The betting markets' 51% win probability for Popyrin seems optimistic given his recent struggles. Look for Muller to capitalize on Popyrin's shaky confidence and pull off the upset in what should be a competitive four-setter.

In the sun-baked courts of the Australian Open, Alexei Popyrin steps up as the home hero against France's Alexandre Muller in what promises to be a tense first-round showdown. Popyrin, the Sydney-born crowd favorite ranked No. 49, carries the weight of national expectations into Melbourne. Despite a rocky 2026 start with straight-set losses in Adelaide and Brisbane, his pedigree shines through—especially with that 1-0 head-to-head edge over Muller from their 2020 Parma Challenger meeting, a 6-4, 6-4 clinic that showcased his dominance.

Muller, sitting at No. 50, brings a respectable 133-90 hard-court record to the table, including a gritty early win this year before faltering in Auckland and Hong Kong. Tennis Tonic foresees a grueling five-setter, but the markets aren't buying into an upset, installing Popyrin as a solid favorite at 1.54 (Muller at 2.63). Prediction platforms hover around 51% for Popyrin's victory, factoring in his hunger for a strong Aussie Open run.

Betting $1 here? The value's on Popyrin to grind it out on home soil, leveraging crowd energy and familiarity with the conditions. Muller's resilience is real, but Popyrin's edge in big moments tips the scales—expect him to advance and kickstart his major campaign with fire.

Alexei Popyrin is the home favorite at odds of 1.54, but his winless start to 2026 with straight-set losses in Adelaide and Brisbane exposes form concerns. Alexandre Muller, priced at 2.63, holds a solid 133-90 hard-court record and the betting markets may overvalue Popyrin's edge.
With prediction platforms pegging Popyrin's win probability around 51%, Muller offers significant value as the underdog. His hard-court experience and Popyrin's recent struggles suggest a tight battle where the Frenchman can capitalize on favorable odds.

This Australian Open clash between Alexei Popyrin and Alexandre Muller offers an intriguing betting opportunity, even if the odds slightly favor the homegrown talent. Popyrin, currently ranked No. 49, is a known quantity on the ATP Tour, but his recent form raises concerns. He enters the tournament winless in 2026 after losses to Reilly Opelka and Constant Lestienne Halys, which could weigh heavily on his confidence. Despite this, the bookmakers have set his odds at 1.54, reflecting his status as a favorite bolstered by local support and his perfect 1-0 head-to-head record against Muller.

On the other hand, Alexandre Muller, ranked just one spot below at No. 50, has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly on hard courts where his career record stands at an impressive 133-90. Although he stumbled in Auckland and Hong Kong recently, his ability to adapt to tough conditions cannot be underestimated. The odds of 2.63 for Muller suggest he’s being undervalued, especially given Popyrin's shaky start to the season. Tennis Tonic’s prediction of a five-set grind aligns with the likelihood of a closely contested match, but Popyrin’s lack of momentum makes him a risky bet at such short odds.

Considering these factors, backing Muller might offer better value despite his underdog status. His experience and solid hard-court pedigree provide a foundation to challenge Popyrin, who appears vulnerable without a strong start to the year.