Betting tips from AI for Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolini, 18 January 2026.

I'm backing Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 3.21 to upset Jasmine Paolini 1.39 in round one.

The qualifier warrior is carrying tangible momentum — three Aussie qualifying wins, an upset of Clara Tauson in Brisbane and a gritty 2-1 vs Daria Snigur, plus a 7-1 hard-court run in 2026. That form reduces the usual qualifier volatility and makes her dangerous on a quick Melbourne court.

Paolini is the class act — world No.7, Italian Open champion and a United Cup win — but market-implied odds peg Sasnovich at only ~31%. I view her true chance closer to the mid-30s given form and matchup pressure on Paolini, so the +221 price offers value.

Jasmine Paolini, the world No. 7, enters this Australian Open clash as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.39, fresh off a solid United Cup performance and her Italian Open triumph. Analysts widely back her, predicting a 66% win probability and a potential straight-sets demolition. Her superior firepower and top-10 ranking certainly make her a formidable opponent.

However, Aliaksandra Sasnovich is not to be underestimated. She’s a qualifier warrior, having stormed through three tough qualifying matches, including a gritty 2-1 victory over Daria Snigur, and even upset Clara Tauson in Brisbane. Sasnovich boasts an impressive 7-1 hard-court record in 2026, showcasing significant momentum. While the market heavily favors Paolini, valuing Sasnovich at 3.21, an intriguing outlier algorithm assigns Sasnovich a 75% win chance. This stark difference between market perception and Sasnovich's red-hot form, coupled with the outlier prediction, creates a compelling value bet for the underdog. Sasnovich's momentum could carry her to a significant upset.

Sasnovich enters this Australian Open clash riding an impressive wave of momentum, having stormed through qualifying with three convincing wins and carrying a stellar 7-1 hard court record in 2026. Her recent upset over Clara Tauson in Brisbane demonstrates her giant-killing potential.

However, Paolini's 1.39 favorite status is well-earned. The world No. 7 has been sharpening her skills at the United Cup, securing a solid win against Leolia Jeanjean despite a narrow loss to Bencic. Her Italian Open triumph last year showcased her ability to perform on the biggest stages.

While one algorithmic outlier surprisingly favors Sasnovich with 75% win probability, most analytical models give Paolini a commanding 66% chance of victory. The qualifier's impressive run makes her dangerous, but Paolini's superior firepower and top-10 pedigree should ultimately prevail in what could be a straight-sets affair to kick off her Melbourne campaign.

In the opening round of the Australian Open Women's draw, we're witnessing a classic tale of the underdog versus the elite. Jasmine Paolini, the world No. 7, enters as the heavy favorite at 1.39, fresh off a United Cup victory over Leolia Jeanjean that has her primed for Melbourne's hard courts. Her top-10 firepower, honed by last year's Italian Open triumph, positions her to dominate early.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich, the qualifier at 3.21, has been on fire with three straight qualifying wins, including a gritty 2-1 battle against Daria Snigur, and a stunning upset over Clara Tauson in Brisbane. Her 7-1 hard-court record in 2026 screams momentum, but against Paolini's precision, it's a tall order.

Analysts' models peg Paolini at 66% to win, forecasting a 2-0 straight-sets affair in this mismatch. While one outlier algo oddly favors Sasnovich at 75%, the Italian's superior ranking and form make her the smart play for bettors eyeing value in a quick victory.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich has stormed into the spotlight with a blistering qualifying run, including a gritty win over Daria Snigur and an upset of Clara Tauson, boasting a 7-1 hard-court record in 2026.
Jasmine Paolini, world No. 7, sharpens her claws with a solid United Cup victory and is hailed by analysts as the clear pick, with models handing her 66% win odds.
While Sasnovich's momentum and 3.21 odds tempt underdog backers, Paolini at 1.39 represents the profitable choice, as her top-10 firepower should dismantle the qualifier in straight sets.

This Australian Open first-round clash pits qualifier Aliaksandra Sasnovich against seventh-ranked Jasmine Paolini, and while the odds heavily favor Paolini at 1.39, there’s reason to believe Sasnovich could make this match more competitive than expected. Sasnovich has been in scintillating form, winning seven of her last eight matches on hard courts, including a gutsy three-set victory over Daria Snigur in qualifying. Her resilience and momentum could trouble Paolini, who, despite her world-class talent, hasn’t faced an opponent riding such a hot streak recently.

Paolini, for her part, is undoubtedly the more accomplished player, with a recent Italian Open title and a solid United Cup performance under her belt. However, her narrow loss to Belinda Bencic suggests she’s not invincible, even against players capable of raising their level. The betting market gives her a 66% implied probability to win, but the outlier algorithm tipping Sasnovich at 75% hints at potential value on the underdog at 3.21. Given Sasnovich’s proven ability to grind out victories and her current confidence, backing her to cover or even pull off the upset seems like a smart wager.

While Paolini’s firepower and experience should ultimately see her through, Sasnovich’s relentless style and knack for thriving in pressure moments could push this match closer than many anticipate.