Betting tips from AI for Almería vs Granada CF, 03 January 2026.

I back Almería to take this derby — the hosts combine a high-octane attack (1.84 GPG) with a home defence that keeps clean sheets roughly half the time, and they sit fourth with 32 points. Those factors make the moneyline at 1.82 the sensible play.

Granada have character — scoring in 9 of 10 — but their away form (just two wins in 10) and fragile league position (18th, 21 points) make an upset unlikely. H2H +1.5 covers for Granada suggest a tight game, and experts are split between under 2.5 and Almería over 2.5, so expect a controlled 2-0 home win.

Betting angle: favour Almería ML at 1.82; avoid the longshot 4.41 and the draw 3.61.

This Andalusian derby pits high-flying Almería against relegation-threatened Granada. While Almería, fourth in the league with a potent 1.84 goals-per-game attack, is heavily favored at 1.82, the match isn't a foregone conclusion. Their rock-solid home defense is impressive, but Granada's gritty survival bid has seen them score in 9 of their last 10. Despite their road woes, Granada boasts a sneaky H2H edge, covering +1.5 handicaps in their last six encounters. Experts are split, with some predicting a cagey under 2.5 goals affair. Almería's recent overall form has dipped, and against a desperate Granada looking to counter-punch, a shock draw at 3.61 is a tempting prospect. The visitors could frustrate the hosts, making this a tight contest.

Almería's fourth-place standing and impressive 1.84 goals per game gives them a significant edge over relegation-threatened Granada. While the visitors have shown scoring consistency, their road record is abysmal with just two wins in ten away fixtures, contrasting sharply with Almería's formidable home defense that keeps clean sheets in 50% of matches.

The hosts' average of 1.75 points per home game is particularly telling against Granada's recent form of just one win in five outings. Though Almería has shown some inconsistency lately (DLWLL overall), their home record remains strong (WWDL).

Granada's historical success against the spread (+1.5) in this fixture offers some intrigue, but Almería at 1.82 represents solid value given the quality gap. The hosts' attacking prowess at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos should overwhelm Granada's porous defense, making Almería the smart play despite the tight 1.82 odds.

In the sweltering Andalusian sun at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almería welcomes a desperate Granada CF in a Segunda División clash that screams home dominance. Sitting pretty in fourth with 32 points and a blistering 1.84 goals-per-game attack, Almería holds a 46-58% edge per analysts, especially with their rock-solid home defense shutting out foes half the time. Granada, languishing in 18th on 21 points, has shown grit by scoring in 9 of their last 10, but their road form is a nightmare—just two wins in 10 away outings.

Almería's recent form (DLWLL overall, WWDL at home) isn't flawless, but their 1.75 points per home game outshines Granada's dismal one win in five. The odds reflect this: Almería at 1.82 offers solid value for a $1 bet, while Granada's 4.41 tempts dreamers and draw at 3.61 suits the cautious. Granada's H2H trick of covering +1.5 in the last six adds intrigue, but Almería's firepower should prevail in a predicted 2-0 stroll, making them the profitable pick to edge out the visitors and climb higher.

Almería enters this Andalusian clash as firm favorites, sitting fourth with a potent attack averaging 1.84 goals per game. Their rock-solid home defense, which blanks opponents half the time, should stifle Granada's gritty but inconsistent scoring.

Granada's road woes—just two wins in 10 away games—compound their relegation fears, despite covering +1.5 handicaps in the last six H2H meetings.

With bookmakers offering Almería at 1.82, the value aligns with their 46-58% projected win probability. Expect the Rojiblancos to leverage home advantage and secure a vital victory.

Almería enters this Segunda División clash as the clear favorite with odds of 1.82, and for good reason. Their home form has been formidable, averaging 1.75 points per game at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, where their defense has kept clean sheets in half of their matches. Despite a slight dip in overall form (DLWLL), they’ve shown resilience on home turf, going unbeaten in three of their last four games there (WWDL).
Granada CF, languishing in 18th place with 21 points, brings some intrigue through their consistent scoring—finding the net in nine of their last ten outings—but their away record is abysmal. Just two wins in their last ten road trips highlight their struggles, making their 4.41 odds reflect the uphill battle they face. While their head-to-head history shows they’ve covered +1.5 handicaps in six straight meetings against Almería, that trend may not hold given the hosts’ superior firepower and defensive solidity.
The match could go either way in terms of total goals. Experts like APWin lean toward an under 2.5-goal affair due to both teams’ occasional lack of cutting edge, but Almería’s penchant for free-scoring home performances makes over 2.5 goals plausible too. Ultimately, Almería’s attacking threat (1.84 goals per game) combined with Granada’s porous defense tilts the scales. A 2-0 victory seems likely, aligning with predictions from SoccerVital and LeagueLane.
Backing Almería at 1.82 offers solid value considering their dominance at home and Granada’s poor travel record. Though Granada might snatch a goal on the counter, it’s hard to see them leaving with anything more than a loss.