Betting tips from AI for Anna Kalinskaya vs Iga Swiatek, 24 January 2026.

I back Iga Swiatek for the value play. The market stamps her a heavy favorite at 1.24 and Dimers' 10,000-sim model gives her roughly an 80% shot, so both model and market point the same way.

Anna Kalinskaya arrives with momentum — straight-set wins and confidence on hard courts — and she's attractively priced at 4.48. Still, Swiatek's superior 2025 form (53-13) and head-to-head edge matter more on this stage.

Crunching expected value with the 80/20 split: a $1 win on Swiatek at 1.24 nets ≈ $0.241 profit, EV ≈ 0.8*0.241 - 0.2*1 ≈ -$0.007; Kalinskaya at 4.48 gives EV ≈ 0.2*3.48 - 0.8 ≈ -$0.104. Swiatek is the least-bad, pragmatic $1 bet.

The Australian Open Women's draw presents a classic clash of form against an overwhelming favorite as Anna Kalinskaya takes on Iga Swiatek. While Kalinskaya has shown impressive grit, storming through her last two matches in straight sets, the reality is she faces a monumental task against the world No. 1. Dimers' predictive model, after 10,000 simulations, gives Swiatek a staggering 80% chance of victory, highlighting the vast disparity in expectation.

Betting markets reflect this sentiment, listing Swiatek as a heavy 1.24 favorite, with Kalinskaya a considerable 4.48 underdog. Swiatek's superior 2025 record of 53-13 absolutely dwarfs Kalinskaya's 21-17, and their head-to-head encounters, particularly on hard courts, have consistently favored the Pole. While Kalinskaya's current form is commendable, it's unlikely to be enough to unseat a player of Swiatek's caliber and consistency. For a profitable outcome, even with the low returns, backing the dominant Swiatek is the only logical choice here.

Iga Swiatek enters this Australian Open matchup as the overwhelming favorite, and with good reason. Dimers' predictive model gives her an 80% chance of victory after 10,000 simulations, which aligns perfectly with the bookmakers' assessment at 1.24.

Kalinskaya has shown impressive form recently with straight-set victories in her previous two matches, demonstrating her hard-court capabilities. However, the head-to-head statistics heavily favor Swiatek, whose 53-13 record in 2025 dwarfs Kalinskaya's 21-17 mark.

While Kalinskaya at 4.48 offers tempting value, Swiatek's dominance on hard courts and consistent performance against the Russian make her the smarter bet despite the shorter odds. The world No. 1 has proven time and again why she deserves that ranking, particularly in Grand Slam settings where her mental fortitude shines brightest.

Expect Swiatek to neutralize Kalinskaya's recent momentum and secure a place in the next round with her superior all-court game and championship experience.

In the Australian Open women's draw, Iga Swiatek faces Anna Kalinskaya in what looks like a classic David vs. Goliath matchup. Swiatek, the world No. 1, enters as the heavy favorite at 1.24, and for good reason—Dimers' model gives her an 80% win probability after 10,000 simulations, underscoring her dominance on hard courts.

Kalinskaya has impressed with straight-set victories in her last two matches, showing she's in sharp form, but her 21-17 record pales against Swiatek's stellar 53-13 from 2025. Head-to-head, Swiatek holds the edge, especially in recent hard-court clashes, making this a tough ask for the Russian underdog at 4.48.

Betting value screams Swiatek here; her precision and power should overwhelm Kalinskaya's grit. As a betting pro, I'd lay the $1 on the Pole to advance, banking on her championship pedigree to deliver another masterclass.

Iga Swiatek enters this Australian Open clash as a massive favorite, with Dimers' model giving her an 80% chance to triumph. The betting markets reinforce this, listing Swiatek at 1.24 and Anna Kalinskaya at 4.48, reflecting faith in the world No. 1's hard-court prowess.

Kalinskaya has impressed with straight-set victories, showcasing sharp form. However, Swiatek's head-to-head dominance and superior 2025 record of 53-13 against Kalinskaya's 21-17 tilt the scales heavily in her favor.

For a profitable bet, Swiatek's odds offer a low-risk return, while Kalinskaya's high payout is tempting but unlikely given the statistical edge. Backing the favorite is the prudent move here.

Iga Swiatek enters this match as a formidable favorite, with the bookmakers listing her at 1.24 against Anna Kalinskaya. The odds reflect both the market's and Dimers' predictive model's strong belief in Swiatek's dominance, giving her an 80% chance of victory. Swiatek's impressive 2025 record of 53-13, including her recent hard-court performances, further solidifies her position as the top contender. Kalinskaya, while showing commendable form with straight-set wins in her last two matches, faces a significant challenge. The head-to-head stats also favor Swiatek, making it clear that she is the player to back in this matchup. Despite the low odds, the likelihood of Swiatek winning makes this a relatively safe bet, albeit with a smaller return.