Betting tips from AI for Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars, 23 November 2025.

This matchup lines up cleanly with Jacksonville’s strengths against Arizona’s weaknesses, and the market price leaves just enough value to fire. The moneyline sits at 1.70 on the Jaguars (implied ~58.8%) versus 2.27 on the Cardinals (implied ~44.1%). With Kyler Murray out for the season and Jacoby Brissett behind an offensive line that has already surrendered 28 sacks in 10 games, Arizona’s attack is too one-dimensional and protection-limited to consistently sustain drives against a defense that thrives on disruption.

Dan Orlovsky’s note about Jacksonville’s run defense matters here: if the Jaguars squeeze Arizona’s early-down rushing and force longer third downs, Brissett will face more obvious passing situations—the exact scenarios that invite the Jaguars’ pass rush and ball-hawking tendencies. Tony Romo’s turnover angle also tracks with recent form: Jacksonville generated three takeaways in last week’s 24–17 win and has been opportunistic on the road all year. That’s a tough profile for a Cardinals offense that’s been playing from behind, inviting more dropbacks behind a struggling line.

The situational factors are modestly pro-Jacksonville as well. Arizona is 1–4 at home and coming off a 41–22 loss, with local pressure mounting on Jonathan Gannon. Even with a supportive crowd, that environment can tighten decision-making if the Cardinals fall behind early. State Farm Stadium’s turf favors speed and quick cuts—advantages that extend to Jacksonville’s pass rush and perimeter weapons in space. Trevor Lawrence did miss mid-week with an ankle tweak, but with no designation and full expectation to start, the risk-adjusted impact is minimal compared to Arizona’s systemic offensive issues.

Most models lean Jaguars by a possession (consensus around 27–21), and that aligns with how these units match up: Jacksonville’s defense compresses Arizona’s margin for error, and their offense should get enough short fields off mistakes to cash drives. I project Jacksonville’s win probability closer to 62% than the 58.8% implied by 1.70. On a $1 bet at that price (profit ~$0.699 if it hits), the expected value is roughly +5.3%—small but positive in a market that’s usually efficient. Meanwhile, Arizona’s 2.27 doesn’t compensate enough for their protection issues and recent skid.

Bottom line: trust the more complete, turnover-ready Jaguars to manage game state, protect the ball, and finish drives. The matchup advantages and current price point justify a moneyline play on Jacksonville.

This Week 12 clash presents a classic case of two franchises heading in opposite directions. The Jacksonville Jaguars, firmly in the AFC playoff hunt, travel to face an Arizona Cardinals team mired in a deep slump and facing an identity crisis. While home-field advantage can be a factor, the Cardinals' 1-4 record at State Farm Stadium this season tells a story of fan enthusiasm dampened by consistent disappointment.

The Jaguars are not just winning; they're doing it with a formula that directly counters Arizona's biggest weaknesses. Jacksonville’s defense, which forced three turnovers in their recent victory against the Titans, is poised to feast on a Cardinals offensive line that has been one of the league's most generous, allowing 28 sacks through 10 games. With star quarterback Kyler Murray sidelined for the season, backup Jacoby Brissett is left to navigate a collapsing pocket. While a capable veteran, Brissett's chances of staying clean and finding a rhythm, as Tony Romo noted as a key to a potential upset, seem slim against this Jaguars front.

On the other side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence is expected to start despite a minor ankle scare, and he leads an offense with enough firepower to exploit a Cardinals defense that has been bleeding points, surrendering a staggering 41 to the 49ers last week. The Jaguars are not just a better team on paper; their recent momentum and clear sense of purpose contrast sharply with the Cardinals, who have lost seven of their last eight games. The mounting pressure on head coach Jonathan Gannon only adds to the instability in Arizona.

Given these factors, the Jaguars are rightly favored at 1.70 on the moneyline. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, generate turnovers, and maintain offensive consistency should be more than enough to overwhelm a Cardinals team that is simply trying to survive the season. While Arizona, priced as a 2.27 underdog, might show flashes of fight, betting on a complete team with a clear objective is the logical play over a fractured opponent in freefall.

This matchup presents a classic case of a struggling team facing a surging opponent, with Jacksonville holding significant advantages across multiple areas. The Jaguars enter this contest with genuine momentum, sitting at 6-4 after a convincing 24-17 victory over Tennessee where their defense forced three crucial turnovers. This defensive playmaking ability could prove decisive against an Arizona offense that has been plagued by protection issues all season.

The Cardinals' offensive struggles are well-documented and concerning. With Kyler Murray sidelined for the season, Jacoby Brissett operates behind an offensive line that has surrendered 28 sacks in just 10 games. This protection breakdown becomes even more problematic when facing a Jacksonville defense that has shown an increased ability to generate pressure and create turnovers. ESPN's Dan Orlovsky specifically highlighted the Jaguars' strong run defense, which should force Arizona into predictable passing situations where their offensive line weaknesses become magnified.

Arizona's recent form tells a damning story - they've lost seven of their last eight games and sit at a disappointing 1-4 at home this season. The 41-22 beatdown by San Francisco last weekend exposed their defensive vulnerabilities while showcasing their offensive limitations. Head coach Jonathan Gannon faces mounting pressure, and local media speculation about potential coaching changes suggests internal instability that rarely translates to improved on-field performance.

Jacksonville's 1.70 odds reflect their superior position, and the line movement suggests sharp money backing the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence's minor ankle issue appears resolved with no official injury designation, keeping their offensive catalyst healthy. The Jaguars have also demonstrated better road performance this season, with their speed-based attack well-suited to State Farm Stadium's artificial surface.

While Arizona's recent games have trended toward high-scoring affairs, this often reflects their defensive deficiencies rather than offensive prowess. Jacksonville should control this game through their defensive pressure and more balanced offensive attack, making them the clear choice despite the modest spread.

As we gear up for this NFL showdown between the Arizona Cardinals and the Jacksonville Jaguars on November 23, 2025, at State Farm Stadium, the betting landscape looks intriguing. The Jaguars are coming in as favorites with odds of 1.70, while the Cardinals sit as underdogs at 2.27. This matchup pits a surging Jacksonville squad against a struggling Arizona team, and digging into the details reveals why the Jags might be the smart play here.

First off, let's talk about recent form. The Jaguars just notched a solid 24-17 win over the Titans, boosting their record to 6-4 and keeping them firmly in the playoff conversation. Their defense was lights out, forcing three turnovers, which aligns perfectly with what analysts like Tony Romo are highlighting—Jacksonville's knack for creating chaos and capitalizing on mistakes. On the flip side, the Cardinals are reeling at 3-7 after a brutal 41-22 loss to San Francisco. They've dropped seven of their last eight, and their 1-4 home record doesn't inspire confidence, even with the home crowd at State Farm Stadium.

Quarterback situations are a massive factor. Arizona's star Kyler Murray is sidelined for the season, leaving Jacoby Brissett to helm the offense. Brissett's a veteran, but the Cardinals' offensive line has been a sieve, allowing 28 sacks in just 10 games. That kind of pressure could spell disaster against a Jaguars defense that's been stout against the run and opportunistic in the secondary. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence dealt with a minor ankle tweak but is cleared to start—no injury designation means he's good to go, and his leadership has been key to Jacksonville's momentum.

Analysts are leaning heavily toward the Jags. ESPN's Dan Orlovsky predicts they'll control the game thanks to their run defense, potentially exposing Arizona's offensive woes. Romo echoes this, pointing to turnover potential as the game-changer, though he notes Arizona's passing game could keep it competitive if Brissett avoids errors. The spread has Jacksonville favored by 2.5 points, with a consensus score around 27-21, suggesting a close but winnable contest for the visitors. Betting models back this up, and with the over trending in both teams' games—Arizona's last six all going over, and Jacksonville's road tilts high-scoring—there might be value in props, but for the moneyline, the Jags feel solid.

Coaching pressure adds another layer for Arizona. Jonathan Gannon is under the microscope after the losing streak, and a defeat here could ramp up calls for change. That kind of distraction rarely helps a team perform. Jacksonville, by contrast, is riding high with no major scandals or issues, just pure focus on the playoff push. The artificial turf at State Farm should play to both teams' speeds, but the Jaguars' overall health and defensive edge give them the nod.

For bettors, this is about value. At 1.70, Jacksonville offers a reasonable payout for what looks like a favorable matchup. If you're eyeing the upset, Arizona's 2.27 could tempt with their passing potential, but the stats and trends scream caution. I'd back the Jaguars to win outright, covering that small spread and keeping their season alive while piling more misery on the Cardinals.

The Jacksonville Jaguars present the far more compelling betting opportunity in this matchup, with a clear edge in momentum, health, and situational factors. At 1.70, they are a solid investment to cover the 2.5-point spread and win outright. Jacksonville is riding high after a crucial divisional win over Tennessee, improving to 6-4 and firmly staying in the AFC playoff picture. Their defense is peaking at the right time, forcing three turnovers last week, a trend that aligns with Tony Romo's analysis that their ability to take the ball away will be decisive. This is a nightmare scenario for an Arizona Cardinals offense that has allowed 28 sacks this season and is starting backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. While Romo noted Brissett could keep it close if protected, the Cardinals' porous offensive line makes that a massive 'if,' and Jacksonville's strong run defense should force Arizona into obvious passing situations where their pass rush can thrive.

Conversely, the Arizona Cardinals are in a state of disarray, having lost seven of their last eight games and coming off a demoralizing 41-22 defeat to the 49ers. The absence of franchise quarterback Kyler Murray has crippled their offensive ceiling, and the mounting pressure on head coach Jonathan Gannon creates an unstable environment that is rarely conducive to pulling off an upset. While State Farm Stadium's artificial turf could theoretically benefit their speed, their profound offensive struggles and lack of defensive playmakers make it difficult to capitalize on any home-field advantage. The news of Trevor Lawrence's minor ankle issue is the only potential red flag, but with no official injury designation and the expectation he will start, it is not enough to derail the Jaguars' superior form and motivation.

From a betting perspective, the value clearly lies with the road favorite. The consensus score prediction of 27-21 in favor of Jacksonville reflects a game that may be competitive for stretches but where the more talented and disciplined team ultimately pulls away. The Jaguars have tangible goals to play for, while the Cardinals are already looking toward next season. Dan Orlovsky's expectation that Jacksonville will control the game is well-founded, as their balanced attack and opportunistic defense should exploit Arizona's weaknesses. In a league where momentum and quarterback play are paramount, the Jaguars hold a decisive advantage in both categories, making them the profitable side to back.

This matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Jacksonville Jaguars presents a fascinating contrast of strengths, weaknesses, and momentum. The Jaguars enter as slight favorites with odds of 1.70, while the Cardinals sit at 2.27. At first glance, betting on the Jaguars seems like the safer choice given their recent form and defensive prowess, but there are compelling reasons to believe this game could go either way.
Jacksonville’s defense has been a cornerstone of their success this season, particularly against the run. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky highlighted their strong run defense as a key factor that could stifle Arizona’s already struggling offense. With Kyler Murray sidelined for the season, Jacoby Brissett steps in as the starter, but he lacks the explosiveness and playmaking ability that Murray brings. Arizona’s offensive line has also been porous, surrendering 28 sacks in just 10 games. This vulnerability could be exploited by Jacksonville’s aggressive front seven, which forced three turnovers last week against Tennessee. However, Tony Romo’s insight about Arizona’s passing attack being a potential equalizer cannot be ignored. If Brissett can stay upright and connect with his receivers downfield, the Cardinals might find ways to keep pace.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence’s health is a minor concern after he missed mid-week practice with an ankle issue. While he is expected to start, any lingering discomfort could impact his mobility and decision-making. Lawrence’s ability to extend plays and make quick reads will be crucial against an Arizona secondary that has shown flashes of brilliance despite the team’s overall struggles. Moreover, Jacksonville’s road record shows they tend to engage in high-scoring affairs, with all four away games going over the total. This trend suggests that even if Lawrence isn’t at his best, the Jaguars may still lean on their firepower to secure a win.
Arizona’s home-field advantage is somewhat diminished due to their poor performance at State Farm Stadium this season (1–4). Fan enthusiasm has waned amid a string of losses and growing speculation about head coach Jonathan Gannon’s future. A loss here would likely intensify calls for a coaching change, adding extra pressure on the Cardinals. Conversely, the Jaguars are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, and their 6–4 record reflects a sense of urgency. Their recent victory over Tennessee demonstrated resilience and adaptability, traits that bode well for their chances in this contest.
The consensus score prediction of 27–21 in favor of Jacksonville underscores how close this game is expected to be. The Jaguars’ turnover-forcing defense gives them a slight edge, but Arizona’s knack for keeping games competitive through their passing game means they won’t go down without a fight. Given the odds, backing the Jaguars at 1.70 offers solid value, especially considering their superior defense and higher stakes in terms of postseason aspirations. That said, taking the Cardinals at 2.27 isn’t entirely outlandish, as their propensity for high-scoring games increases the likelihood of covering or outright winning in a shootout scenario."After weighing these factors, the Jaguars emerge as the more reliable pick. Their defensive dominance, coupled with Lawrence’s leadership and the Cardinals’ ongoing struggles, tilts the scales in their favor. While Arizona’s passing attack provides some intrigue, it’s unlikely to overcome the structural issues plaguing their offense.