Betting tips from AI for Arman Tsarukyan vs Daniel Hooker, 22 November 2025.

Stylistically, Arman Tsarukyan’s blend of chain wrestling, top control, and increasingly polished pocket boxing makes him a rightful favorite. He’s a superb athlete with dominant mat pressure, and the consensus from fighters and analysts echoes that edge. Even after an 18‑month MMA layoff due to a back issue, he stayed sharp with three high‑level grappling wins in 2025 (Benson Henderson, Patricky Freire), which eases durability concerns. His split decision over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 also underlines top‑tier credentials. The motivation angle is obvious too—this is a title eliminator, and Tsarukyan has made the rivalry personal, promising to channel the emotions inside the cage.

But betting is about price, not just pick. The market has Tsarukyan around 1.17, which implies roughly an 86% win probability. Dan Hooker is posted at 5.67, translating to a breakeven of about 17.6%. The draw is a practical non‑starter in modern MMA at 50.00. If Tsarukyan really wins 90% of the time, laying the chalk could be barely +EV, but the matchup and context introduce enough variance to make that assumption shaky.

Hooker’s path is narrower but real. He’s a tall, rangy striker with sharp knees and intercepting counters that punish level changes—precisely the weapons that can make an aggressive wrestler think twice. He’s fresh off a gritty split‑decision win over Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 305, a fighter who previously beat Tsarukyan—MMA math isn’t transitive, but it signals Hooker can survive and solve a relentless takedown artist over minutes. He’s also recovered from the hand injury that scrapped the Gaethje fight, and his veteran craft—framing, elbows on breaks, and targeted body work—creates damaging moments even when he’s backing up.

The layoff factor cuts both ways: Tsarukyan’s grappling activity suggests fitness, yet the first firefight back in a high‑stakes road environment (UFC’s Qatar debut) can produce early volatility. Add Tsarukyan’s admitted animosity—emotion can catalyze fast starts but also small mistakes on entries—and you have a underdog live for momentum swings. If Hooker keeps the first layer of shots off him, builds with jabs, front kicks, and knees, and forces resets at range, the fight gets uncomfortable for the favorite.

My projection: Tsarukyan still wins this matchup more often than not—somewhere in the 75–80% band—but that leaves 20–25% for Hooker, which is above the 17.6% breakeven implied by 5.67. That gap is enough to justify a $1 stab on the underdog from a value perspective. We’re betting the price, not the popularity. The favorite likely edges it over minutes with control and pace, but Hooker’s finishing upside and takedown‑taxing tools make the underdog ticket the more profitable long‑run position at these numbers.

This lightweight title eliminator in Qatar presents a classic clash of styles, amplified by genuine animosity. Arman Tsarukyan enters as a prohibitive favorite at 1.17, and for good reason. His dominant wrestling, relentless pressure, and ever-improving striking game make him one of the most complete fighters in the division. His split decision victory over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 was a testament to his elite-level capabilities, proving he can hang with and defeat the absolute best.

The biggest question mark for Tsarukyan is his 18-month layoff from MMA due to a back injury. While 'ring rust' is a legitimate concern, he has wisely stayed active with three successful high-level grappling matches in 2025. This activity should keep his primary weapon—his grappling—razor sharp. Furthermore, his palpable disdain for Hooker could be a powerful motivator, fueling a focused and ferocious performance aimed at making a statement.

On the other side, Dan 'The Hangman' Hooker is a battle-tested veteran who thrives in the underdog role, as reflected in his tempting 5.67 odds. His recent split-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot, one of the division's premier wrestlers and a man who holds a win over Tsarukyan, cannot be overstated. That victory proved Hooker has made significant strides in his takedown defense and ability to win scrambles against a grappling specialist. He possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power and an iron chin, making him a live threat for every second of the fight.

However, styles make fights, and Tsarukyan's dynamic, explosive wrestling is a different beast. While Hooker survived Gamrot, Tsarukyan's ability to chain takedown attempts with strikes is on another level. The most likely scenario sees Tsarukyan weathering an early storm from Hooker, closing the distance, and implementing his suffocating ground game. He can grind Hooker against the cage, land takedowns, and either hunt for a submission or rack up points for a dominant decision victory. While Hooker's power always gives him a puncher's chance, Tsarukyan's superior athleticism and more reliable path to victory make him the clear pick.

This lightweight title eliminator presents a fascinating stylistic clash between Arman Tsarukyan's wrestling dominance and Daniel Hooker's striking prowess. The oddsmakers heavily favor Tsarukyan at 1.17, and for good reason - his complete skill set and athletic superiority create multiple paths to victory.

Tsarukyan's 18-month layoff due to back injury initially raises concerns, but his activity in grappling competitions throughout 2025 suggests he's maintained his conditioning and competitive edge. Defeating quality opponents like Benson Henderson and Patricky Freire in grappling matches demonstrates his wrestling remains sharp. His last MMA performance against Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 showcased significant improvements in striking while maintaining his suffocating ground game.

Hooker's recent split-decision victory over Mateusz Gamrot cannot be overlooked, especially since Gamrot previously defeated Tsarukyan. This win proves Hooker can still compete at elite levels and his recovery from the broken hand appears complete. His vocal confidence and psychological warfare tactics suggest he genuinely believes in his chances as a 5.67 underdog.

However, the fundamental matchup favors Tsarukyan significantly. His wrestling credentials allow him to dictate where the fight takes place, and Hooker has historically struggled against elite grapplers. While Hooker possesses knockout power and excellent striking technique, Tsarukyan's improved striking defense and ability to mix takedowns with striking creates constant pressure.

The personal animosity Tsarukyan expressed toward Hooker could work both ways - either fueling his performance or causing him to abandon his gameplan for emotional satisfaction. Given his professional track record and team's guidance, expect Tsarukyan to channel this motivation productively.

Most telling is the overwhelming support from MMA professionals and analysts who consistently highlight Tsarukyan's athletic advantages and skill diversity. In a title eliminator where both fighters are motivated, the more complete fighter typically prevails. Tsarukyan's wrestling base, improved striking, and physical attributes create too many advantages to ignore, making him the clear choice despite the heavy odds.

The upcoming lightweight clash between Arman Tsarukyan and Daniel Hooker at UFC's debut in Qatar is shaping up to be a high-stakes title eliminator that has the MMA world buzzing. With Tsarukyan entering as the heavy favorite at odds of 1.17, and Hooker as the underdog at 5.67, this fight pits a rising star against a battle-tested veteran who's no stranger to pulling off upsets. The draw sits at a distant 50.00, reflecting how unlikely a stalemate seems in this explosive matchup. As a betting expert, I'm diving deep into why Tsarukyan looks like the smart play here, but I'll also highlight where Hooker could surprise.

First off, let's talk about Tsarukyan's strengths. The Armenian-Russian phenom is a complete fighter with elite wrestling that could neutralize Hooker's striking game. Analysts like Michael Bisping and Mateusz Gamrot are all in on Tsarukyan, praising his dominant grappling, improved striking, and freakish athleticism. Remember, his last MMA outing was a split-decision victory over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300—a win that solidified him as a top contender. Even after an 18-month layoff due to a back injury, Tsarukyan stayed sharp with three grappling wins in 2025 against tough opponents like Benson Henderson and Patricky Freire. This activity suggests he's not rusty; if anything, he's honed his skills in ways that directly counter Hooker's style.

On the flip side, Daniel Hooker brings that Kiwi grit and a knack for defying odds. His recent split-decision win over Gamrot at UFC 305 is huge—especially since Gamrot is one of the few to have beaten Tsarukyan. Hooker's been on a roll with upsets in his last two fights, and he's recovered from a broken hand that sidelined him earlier this year. His trash talk, calling Tsarukyan an 'idiot' and downplaying his athletic prowess, shows mental toughness that could fuel a performance. Hooker's long-range striking and durability make him dangerous; he's lost a third of his fights but often goes the distance against elites. If he keeps it standing and avoids Tsarukyan's takedowns, we could see fireworks.

But here's where the betting value lies: the odds reflect Tsarukyan's edge, but they're not inflated. At 1.17, you're looking at a implied probability of about 85% for Tsarukyan, which aligns with expert picks and his skill set advantage. Hooker's path to victory relies on landing big shots early or surviving to a decision, but Tsarukyan's wrestling should control the pace. The personal animosity—Tsarukyan openly despising Hooker—adds fuel, potentially leading to a more aggressive, finish-oriented fight from Arman. In a title eliminator, expect Tsarukyan to channel that emotion into a dominant performance, likely by decision or late stoppage.

For bettors, I'd recommend laying the juice on Tsarukyan outright. If you're feeling risky, prop bets on Tsarukyan by decision could offer better value, given both fighters' tendencies for judges' scorecards. Hooker's underdog status is tempting at 5.67, especially with his upset history, but the data points to Tsarukyan. The Qatar venue might bring a unique vibe, but no weather or arena issues should impact this indoor scrap. Overall, this is Tsarukyan's fight to lose, and I see him earning that shot at Ilia Topuria.

Arman Tsarukyan enters this matchup as a heavy favorite for compelling reasons, and the betting odds of 1.17 reflect his perceived dominance. His wrestling is among the best in the lightweight division, and his striking has shown marked improvement, making him a multi-faceted threat. Analysts like Michael Bisping and fellow fighters overwhelmingly favor him, pointing to his athleticism and complete skill set as decisive advantages. While the 18-month layoff from MMA is a potential concern, his activity in grappling matches in 2025, where he defeated respected opponents, suggests he has maintained his competitive sharpness and physical condition.

Daniel Hooker, at underdog odds of 5.67, presents a dangerous challenge. His recent split-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot is highly significant, as Gamrot is one of the few fighters to have a victory over Tsarukyan. This proves Hooker can compete at the highest level and upset favored opponents, as he has in his last two fights. His self-belief is palpable from the pre-fight trash talk, and he will look to use his length and striking to keep Tsarukyan at bay. However, his history of being inconsistent and losing a third of his professional fights, as he himself acknowledged, is a major red flag against an elite, motivated opponent.

The intangibles strongly favor Tsarukyan. His open animosity towards Hooker could be a double-edged sword, but he has stated his intention to channel it productively into his performance. For a fighter of his caliber, this personal edge often translates into heightened focus and aggression inside the cage. Furthermore, the stakes of this title eliminator fight, with a shot at Ilia Topuria on the line, will likely bring out the best in the more highly-ranked and technically sound fighter. While the 50.00 draw odds are tempting for a lottery ticket, the value and most probable outcome lie squarely with Tsarukyan finding a path to victory, most likely via ground control and eventual submission or ground-and-pound.

Arman Tsarukyan enters this lightweight title eliminator as the overwhelming favorite, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.17 for his victory. These odds reflect not only his superior skill set but also the broader consensus among analysts and former fighters who overwhelmingly back him to defeat Daniel Hooker. Tsarukyan's dominant wrestling, dynamic movement, and improved striking have been highlighted by experts like Michael Bisping and Gamrot, both of whom view him as a complete fighter capable of dictating the pace and style of the bout.
Tsarukyan’s recent activity in grappling competitions during his 18-month MMA layoff is a critical factor in his favor. His victories over Benson Henderson and Patricky Freire indicate he has maintained—if not enhanced—his physical conditioning and technical skills despite being out of the Octagon. Moreover, his split-decision win over Charles Oliveira at UFC 300 showcased his ability to perform under pressure against elite opponents. While the long hiatus from MMA competition could introduce some ring rust, his focused preparation suggests he will be sharp enough to handle Hooker’s striking-heavy approach.