Betting tips from AI for Arthur Gea vs Stan Wawrinka, 22 January 2026.

This is a classic youth vs. veteran duel at the Australian Open. Bookmakers have Arthur Gea installed at 1.63
But the numbers create the value. -159 implies ~61% chance, higher than the cited 55–58% simulation window. Stan Wawrinka fought through a tough opener, shows clay-court grit translated to hard courts, and the market prices him at 2.44, implying roughly 40–42%. If Gea’s true win probability is 55–58%, Wawrinka’s is ~42–45% — enough edge against the 2.44 price. Back the value: take Wawrinka to capitalize on mispriced favorite odds.

Arthur Gea, priced at 1.63, looks like the smart play in this intriguing second-round clash. The young Frenchman arrives on a red-hot nine-match win streak, having not dropped a set through qualifiers and securing a significant upset over Jiri Lehecka. This incredible momentum is a powerful factor, as highlighted by Dimers' model, which gives Gea a 55-58% edge to advance.

While Stan Wawrinka, at 2.44, brings a wealth of experience as a three-time Grand Slam champion and showed grit rallying from a set down in his opener, the 40-year-old veteran might struggle with the relentless energy of his 21-year-old opponent. Both Tennis Tonic and The Stats Zone predict a lengthy, potentially five-set battle. Such a grind would heavily favor the in-form Gea, whose stamina appears superior given his recent flawless performances. Gea's current trajectory suggests he's poised for another big win.

Arthur Gea enters this clash on a blistering nine-match win streak and hasn't dropped a set in Australian Open qualifying or his first-round match. At just 21, he's showing remarkable composure, evidenced by his stunning victory over Jiri Lehecka. The bookmakers have him as the favorite at 1.63, and analytics back this up with Dimers' model giving him a 55-58% edge after 10,000 simulations.

While Stan Wawrinka demonstrated his resilience by rallying from a set down against Laslo Djere with an impressive 14 aces and 49 winners, the 40-year-old's stamina becomes questionable in what multiple analysts predict will be a grueling match extending beyond 3.5 sets. The Swiss veteran's 64-46 hard-court record commands respect, but Gea's youthful energy and current form give him the advantage.

Wawrinka's 2.44 odds reflect his underdog status, but his Grand Slam experience could make this closer than expected. Still, Gea's momentum should carry him through this second-round battle.

In this electrifying Australian Open second-round showdown, 21-year-old sensation Arthur Gea faces off against 40-year-old veteran Stan Wawrinka on the hard courts of Melbourne. Gea enters with blistering momentum, riding a nine-match win streak that includes a stunning upset over Jiri Lehecka in the first round. He hasn't dropped a set in the qualifiers, showcasing his relentless baseline game and improving serve that's got him red-hot Down Under.

Wawrinka, the three-time Grand Slam champ, dug deep to rally from a set down against Laslo Djere, firing 14 aces and 49 winners in a gritty four-set win. His hard-court pedigree is undeniable at 64-46 lifetime, but age and rust could catch up against Gea's youthful energy.

Dimers' 10,000 simulations give Gea a 55-58% edge, while Tennis Tonic predicts a five-set thriller with the young gun grinding out the victory. The Stats Zone tips over 3.5 sets, underscoring the marathon potential. At odds of 1.63 for Gea and 2.44 for Wawrinka, the value screams on the underdog's upset potential—Gea's form makes him the pick to advance.

Arthur Gea brings scorching form with a nine-match win streak and a dominant run through qualifiers, but Stan Wawrinka's gritty comeback—14 aces and 49 winners to rally past Laslo Djere—showcases his enduring hard-court prowess.

While models favor Gea at 55-58%, the odds at 1.63 overvalue him, creating value on Wawrinka at 2.44. The veteran's experience in marathon clashes could exploit Gea's youth in a tense battle.

In this second-round clash at the Australian Open, Arthur Gea faces off against Stan Wawrinka. The young gun, Gea, has been on a remarkable run, not dropping a set in the qualifiers and securing his biggest career win in the first round. His momentum is evident, and Dimers' model backs him with a 55-58% edge, suggesting he has a strong chance to upset the veteran. On the other hand, Wawrinka, a three-time Grand Slam champion, showed his resilience by rallying from a set down in his previous match, demonstrating that he still possesses the hard-court pedigree (64-46 lifetime). Despite Wawrinka's experience, the odds favor Gea at 1.63, while Wawrinka is at 2.44. Given Gea's current form and the statistical edge, it seems prudent to back the rising star in this match.