Betting tips from AI for Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova, 23 January 2026.

The headline: despite Aryna Sabalenka’s steamroller form (5-0, 10-0 sets, 4.2 aces per match) and a strong model giving her a 91% chance, the market has priced this matchup steeply at 1.05, leaving a rare value window on the underdog.

Book odds of 14.39 for Anastasia Potapova imply roughly a 7% chance, while the Dimers model’s 9% (complement to 91%) pushes Potapova into positive expected value territory. Betting $1 on Potapova at these odds yields an approximate EV of +$0.30 if the model is accurate, whereas a $1 bet on Sabalenka is slightly negative EV. For a bankroll-focused contrarian play, back Potapova.

This Australian Open clash sees Aryna Sabalenka enter as an overwhelming favorite, and for good reason. The world No. 1 is in scintillating form, boasting a perfect 5-0 match record and 10-0 set record in 2026. Her controlled aggression and sustained pressure are expected to expose Anastasia Potapova's vulnerabilities, especially in shorter rallies, as noted by expert analysts. The statistical disparity is stark, with Sabalenka averaging 4.2 aces per match compared to Potapova's 2.2, and having won 19 break points this season. Potapova's 2-3 match record this year pales in comparison.

Bookmakers reflect this dominance, with Sabalenka sitting at 1.05, indicating a near-certain victory. Dimers' predictive model gives her a 91% win probability. Expect Sabalenka to continue her dominant run and advance comfortably.

The numbers don't lie in this Australian Open matchup. Aryna Sabalenka enters this contest in phenomenal form with a perfect 5-0 record and hasn't dropped a single set in 2026. Her dominance is reflected in the overwhelming 1.05 odds. Potapova, meanwhile, struggles with a mediocre 2-3 record this season.

Sabalenka's superior firepower is evident in her serving statistics, averaging nearly twice as many aces per match as Potapova (4.2 vs 2.2). The world No. 1 has also been more clinical on break points, converting 19 compared to Potapova's 14 this year.

Dimers' predictive model gives Sabalenka a 91% win probability, which aligns with the betting market's assessment. Sabalenka's controlled aggression and ability to sustain pressure will likely expose vulnerabilities in Potapova's game, particularly in shortened rallies as analyst Ilemona suggests. This match appears to be a formality for Sabalenka as she continues her quest to improve on last year's runner-up finish.

Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 1, is poised for another dominant display at the Australian Open Women's Singles, facing Anastasia Potapova in what looks like a mismatch on paper. Sabalenka enters the match in scorching form, undefeated at 5-0 in 2026 with a flawless 10-0 sets record, showcasing her explosive power and precision on hard courts. Her serve is a weapon, averaging 4.2 aces per match, and she's converted 19 break points this year alone—numbers that dwarf Potapova's modest output of 2.2 aces and 14 breaks in a shaky 2-3 record.

Potapova, while talented, struggles against top-tier aggression, especially in shortened rallies where Sabalenka thrives. Expert models back this up, projecting a 91% win probability for Sabalenka, including an 85% chance she takes the opening set. The odds reflect this lopsided affair at 1.05 for Sabalenka versus 14.39 for the underdog, making it a low-risk play for bettors eyeing steady returns.

As the tournament favorite fresh off last year's runner-up finish, Sabalenka's controlled firepower should overwhelm Potapova early, securing a straight-sets victory and advancing her deep into the draw. This isn't just a win—it's a statement from the Belarusian powerhouse.

Aryna Sabalenka storms into this Australian Open match as the world's top-ranked player, riding a flawless 5-0 record in 2026 with a commanding 10-0 set streak. Her explosive game, highlighted by 4.2 aces per match, overwhelms opponents, while Anastasia Potapova's shaky 2-3 form this year leaves her vulnerable.

Dimers' model projects a 91% win probability for Sabalenka, mirrored in the steep odds of 1.05. Potapova's longshot price at 14.39 underscores the gulf in class, making Sabalenka's controlled aggression and break-point prowess the keys to a straightforward victory.

Aryna Sabalenka is poised for a commanding performance against Anastasia Potapova in the Australian Open Women's Singles. Sabalenka, currently the world No. 1, has been in exceptional form, boasting a perfect 5-0 record and a 10-0 set record in 2026. Her aggressive yet controlled playstyle, coupled with her ability to win crucial break points, makes her a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Potapova's 2-3 match record and 4-7 set record this year highlight a significant gap in their current form. The disparity in their serve games is also notable, with Sabalenka averaging 4.2 aces per match compared to Potapova's 2.2. Given these factors, along with the overwhelming odds of 1.05 in favor of Sabalenka, it's clear that she is the favorite to win. The betting line reflects the high probability of a Sabalenka victory, making her the smart choice for this match.