Betting tips from AI for Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui, 18 October 2025.

Classic striker-versus-wrestler dynamics frame this matchup, and the market is leaning hard toward control and mat time. Azamat Bekoev sits as the clear favorite at 1.31, with Yousri Belgaroui the live underdog at 3.64. A draw is posted at a lottery-ticket 50.00, which reflects just how rare stalemates are in MMA. The question for bettors isn’t merely “who wins,” but whether the price on the favorite still holds value when you convert it to an implied probability and weigh it against the stylistic realities inside the cage.

Bekoev’s game translates cleanly: pressure-forward entries, strong clinch work, chain wrestling against the fence, and a patient, top-heavy approach once he lands. He doesn’t need big moments to bank rounds; he needs position, rides, mat returns, and safe ground-and-pound that opens scoring without ceding scrambles. Fighters with this template win a high percentage of non-scramble-heavy minutes because they determine where the fight happens and how fast it’s fought. Bekoev also tends to manage risk well—chin tucked behind the lead shoulder, head off the centerline on level changes, and a willingness to reset rather than force low-percentage shots.

Belgaroui is a decorated, long-range kickboxer: sharp jab, stabbing front kicks, intercepting knees, and a straight right that travels fast down the pipe. In space, his striking looks clean and dangerous. His challenges in MMA emerge when opponents collapse distance and make him fight on the cage. While his takedown defense has improved, he still shows moments of high stance, delayed underhooks, and a tendency to post to stand that can expose his back or hips to rides and mat returns. If he stays tall or retreats linearly, Bekoev’s cage-cutting and body-lock sequences become a repeating problem.

Tactically, expect Bekoev to crowd early, level change when Belgaroui plants his feet, and accumulate control to snowball minutes. Belgaroui’s paths are real but narrow: deny the first two shots, sting Bekoev on entries with the knee up the middle, and keep the fight in the center where volume and power can swing momentum. If he can consistently frame, pummel inside, and circle off before the fence bite, the striking gap grows meaningful. If not, the clock bleeds in Bekoev’s favor.

Pricing check: 1.31 implies roughly 76% win probability. Given the stylistic edge for a proven control wrestler versus a rangy striker still rounding out his MMA grappling, I estimate Bekoev around 79–82% to win. At 80%, the expected value on $1 is positive (0.80 × 0.309 – 0.20 × 1 ≈ +0.07), making the chalk playable even if not glamorous. By contrast, the dog at 3.64 needs north of ~27% to be profitable; that’s a stretch unless you believe Belgaroui’s first-layer takedown defense and counter-knee timing have jumped significantly. The draw at 50.00 has negligible base rate and isn’t a serious consideration.

What could go wrong? An early intercepting knee or uppercut on a level change, a cut that prompts a stoppage, or prolonged referee stand-ups could flip the script. But over 15 minutes, the repeatable, lower-variance path lies with Bekoev’s wrestling loops.

Recommendation: $1 on Bekoev moneyline at 1.31. Prediction: Bekoev by decision or late ground-and-pound TKO after sustained top control.

This middleweight clash is a textbook example of the age-old MMA question: can a world-class striker fend off a high-level grappler? In one corner, we have Azamat Bekoev, a relentless Sambo specialist whose entire game plan revolves around closing the distance, securing takedowns, and dominating on the mat. The bookmakers have rightfully installed him as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.31, reflecting his clear and proven path to victory against stand-up fighters.

In the other corner stands Yousri Belgaroui, a decorated kickboxer with a background in the elite Glory promotion. Belgaroui is a tactical and dangerous striker, boasting a significant height and reach advantage that he uses masterfully to keep opponents at the end of his long punches and kicks. His path to an upset victory, priced at an intriguing 3.64, involves maintaining distance, punishing Bekoev on the entry, and stuffing takedown attempts. If he can keep this fight standing, he has a massive advantage in the striking department.

The critical factor in this fight will be Belgaroui's takedown defense. While he has been dedicating his training to rounding out his MMA game since transitioning from kickboxing, he is facing a true specialist in Bekoev. The Russian fighter is known for his chain wrestling, meaning he doesn't just shoot for one takedown but will relentlessly pursue it, transitioning from one attempt to another until he gets his opponent to the canvas. This is an incredibly difficult style to defend against for 15 minutes, even for a seasoned wrestler, let alone a converted striker.

While a spectacular knockout victory for Belgaroui is always a possibility given his striking pedigree, the probability heavily favors Bekoev. The grappler has more ways to win—via submission, ground-and-pound TKO, or a grinding decision based on top control. Bekoev only needs to be successful with his takedowns a few times to completely neutralize Belgaroui's primary weapons. Expect Bekoev to weather an early storm, close the distance, and systematically break Belgaroui down on the ground for a decisive victory.

This MMA matchup presents a classic power versus technique scenario that experienced bettors should recognize immediately. Azamat Bekoev enters as the heavy favorite at 1.31, indicating the bookmakers see him as having roughly a 76% chance of victory. This pricing suggests significant advantages in either skillset, experience, or physical attributes that create a substantial gap between these fighters.

Bekoev's status as the overwhelming favorite likely stems from his wrestling background and physical strength advantages typical of fighters from the Caucasus region. His grappling-heavy style often proves decisive against opponents who prefer striking exchanges. The 1.31 odds reflect market confidence in his ability to control fight positioning and impose his game plan effectively.

Yousri Belgaroui, priced at 3.64, represents the classic underdog with knockout potential. North African fighters often bring exceptional striking technique and cardio conditioning that can trouble heavy grapplers. His odds suggest approximately 27% win probability, but this could represent value if he possesses superior striking accuracy and takedown defense.

The key factor favoring Bekoev is stylistic matchup dynamics. Wrestling-based fighters typically perform better against pure strikers in MMA's current meta. Bekoev can likely secure takedowns, control ground position, and either submit Belgaroui or win decisively on scorecards through positional dominance.

While Belgaroui's striking could theoretically end the fight early, the significant odds disparity suggests fundamental skill or experience gaps that make sustained success unlikely. Bekoev's presumed grappling advantage provides multiple paths to victory, whereas Belgaroui essentially needs a knockout to win.

The betting value clearly lies with the favorite despite the low payout. Bekoev's 1.31 pricing, while offering minimal returns, represents the most probable outcome based on stylistic advantages and market assessment.

When it comes to MMA betting, the matchup between Azamat Bekoev and Yousri Belgaroui on October 18, 2025, is one that has fight fans buzzing. Bekoev, the heavy favorite at 1.31, brings a wealth of experience to the cage with his grappling prowess and well-rounded skill set. Hailing from Russia, he's built a reputation in promotions like ACA, where his wrestling and submission game have dismantled opponents time and again. With a record that showcases his ability to control fights on the ground, Bekoev is the kind of fighter who can neutralize strikers by taking the action where he's most comfortable.

On the other side, Yousri Belgaroui enters as the underdog at 3.64, and for good reason. The Dutch kickboxer has made waves in Glory Kickboxing with his sharp striking and knockout power, but transitioning to MMA is no easy feat. Belgaroui's stand-up game is elite, featuring crisp combinations and devastating knees that could spell trouble if he keeps the fight on the feet. However, his ground game remains a question mark, and against a grappler like Bekoev, that could be his Achilles' heel. We've seen similar stories before—strikers getting taken down and submitted before they can unleash their arsenal.

Breaking down the odds, the draw at 50.00 is understandably a long shot in MMA, where decisions or finishes are far more common than stalemates. But for bettors, the value here lies in Bekoev's favoritism. His experience in full MMA rulesets gives him a clear edge over Belgaroui, who might still be adjusting to the grappling demands of the sport. If Bekoev can close the distance early and impose his will, this could end in a submission or ground-and-pound TKO. That said, Belgaroui's striking could lead to an upset if he catches Bekoev coming in recklessly—think of it like those classic striker vs. grappler bouts that keep us on the edge of our seats.

From a betting perspective, laying the juice on Bekoev at 1.31 might not offer the juiciest return, but it's a solid play for those building parlays or looking for a reliable leg. For the risk-takers, a prop bet on Bekoev by submission could amplify profits, given his history. Belgaroui at 3.64 tempts with upset potential, especially if the fight stays standing, but the smart money leans toward the more complete MMA fighter. This bout exemplifies why MMA betting is so thrilling—styles make fights, and here, grappling could trump striking in a big way.

Ultimately, my prediction hinges on Bekoev's ability to dictate the pace. With the fight set in what I assume is a standard octagon, expect Bekoev to shoot for takedowns early and wear down Belgaroui. For enthusiasts, keep an eye on Belgaroui's takedown defense; if it's improved, this could be closer than the odds suggest. But based on their respective backgrounds, I'm confident in Bekoev emerging victorious, making him the pick for a profitable bet.

Welcome to this highly anticipated MMA clash between Azamat Bekoev and Yousri Belgaroui, scheduled for October 18, 2025. As a sports betting expert, I aim to identify profitable opportunities by analyzing fighter styles, odds, and historical trends. This bout features a clear favorite in Bekoev, but upsets are always possible in the unpredictable world of mixed martial arts, making it essential to dive deep into the factors that could sway the outcome.

Azamat Bekoev enters as the heavy favorite with American odds of 1.31, reflecting a high implied probability of victory. His strengths lie in a dominant wrestling base and exceptional ground control, often leading to submissions or decision wins. With a hypothetical record showcasing numerous wins via takedowns and positional dominance, Bekoev's ability to neutralize strikers makes him a formidable opponent. In MMA, grapplers like him tend to dictate the pace, reducing the risk of knockout losses and increasing their chances in prolonged fights.

Yousri Belgaroui, on the other hand, presents an underdog appeal with odds of 3.64, highlighting his potential for an upset. Known for his powerful striking and knockout prowess, Belgaroui could end the fight abruptly if he lands clean shots. However, his defensive grappling may be a liability against Bekoev's relentless pressure. Historical MMA matchups often see strikers struggle against elite wrestlers, as takedowns can nullify striking advantages and lead to fatigue or submissions, tilting the scales in favor of the grappler.

Analyzing the bookmaker odds, Bekoev's 1.31 suggests a win probability around 76%, while Belgaroui's 3.64 indicates roughly 27%, with the draw at 50.00 being highly improbable in MMA. Although the expected value for both sides is slightly negative due to the bookmaker's margin, Bekoev's stylistic edge and consistency offer a safer bet for long-term profitability. Betting on favorites in such scenarios minimizes risk, as high-probability events compound gains over time, whereas underdog bets, though tempting, often lead to losses without significant value.

In summary, while Belgaroui's striking could produce a dramatic finish, Bekoev's grappling superiority and favoritism make him the rational choice. For bettors seeking steady returns, backing Bekoev aligns with a strategy that prioritizes fighter advantages and probability over potential payouts, ensuring a more reliable path to profit in this matchup.

In this upcoming MMA bout between Azamat Bekoev and Yousri Belgaroui, the odds suggest a clear favorite in Azamat Bekoev at 1.31, while Yousri Belgaroui stands as the underdog with odds of 3.64. The draw is priced at an astronomical 50.00, which indicates it’s not a likely outcome. While betting on heavy favorites like Bekoev might feel safe, the low payout makes it difficult to generate meaningful profit over time. However, given Bekoev's track record, fighting style, and recent momentum, this bout presents a strong case for backing him despite the steep odds.
Azamat Bekoev has consistently demonstrated his ability to dominate opponents through a combination of technical striking and grappling prowess. His last five fights have all ended in decisive victories, showcasing his adaptability in various scenarios—whether it's taking the fight to the ground or outpointing foes on the feet. Bekoev's defensive acumen is another key factor; he absorbs minimal damage and rarely finds himself in vulnerable positions. This discipline reduces the chances of an upset, even against a skilled opponent like Belgaroui.