Betting tips from AI for Bekzat Almakhan vs Aleksandre Topuria, 22 November 2025.

Stylistically, this matchup tilts toward Aleksandre Topuria over the long minutes. His game is built on pace, defense, and wrestling glue: a 4x volume edge, 70% striking defense, and an 85% takedown-defense profile that lets him dictate phases. Analytics models envision a Topuria unanimous decision (30-27/29-28) or attritional late stoppage, driven by superior cardio in rounds 2–3 and cleaner strike selection once the pocket exchanges slow down. The path for Bekzat Almakhan is narrow but very real: force early chaos and land a bomb in the first 5–7 minutes, where his power carries the highest threat.

Almakhan’s danger isn’t theoretical. He put Umar Nurmagomedov on the canvas in his debut and is coming off a statement first-round TKO of Brad Katona—no small feat given Katona’s durability. If Topuria lounges at kicking range or gives stationary entries, Almakhan can change the fight with a single counter. But as the sample grows, Almakhan’s efficiency numbers (0.68 landed vs. 4.29 absorbed per minute, 40% accuracy, 32% defense) suggest a defensive tax that becomes costly as clock and volume accumulate.

Where Topuria separates is repeatability. He closes distance behind a dependable jab, crowds the hips, and switches to Greco-style clinch rides that blunt power. Once he gets reads, exchanges become two-beat sequences he wins: he hits first, exits second, and is back in before resets. That’s exactly the sort of structure that neutralizes a front-loaded knockout artist.

Market-wise, we’re looking at Bekzat Almakhan 2.25 vs. Aleksandre Topuria 1.70. Opening sentiment near Almakhan 2.10 and Topuria 1.77 tilted toward Topuria through the week, reflecting bettors prioritizing cardio, defense, and grappling over Almakhan’s one-shot upside. The distance pricing and an under-lean underline volatility, but they don’t erase the minute-winning edge.

My number makes Topuria a 62–64% favorite, implying a fair line around 1.61. At the current 1.70, there’s still a sliver of value. For a $1 stake, the profit on a win is about $0.70; EV ≈ 0.63×0.70 − 0.37×1 = +$0.07, acknowledging the elevated round-1 risk. If Almakhan doesn’t get the early dent, Topuria’s cardio and grappling cycles should take over for a decision or late TKO.

The bet: Aleksandre Topuria moneyline 1.70. You’re backing durability, pace, and minute-winning tools against a concentrated early power spike—precisely the kind of edge that pays out more often than the price implies.

This bantamweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic puzzle between a devastating power puncher and a technical volume striker. Bekzat Almakhan is the personification of a live underdog, carrying legitimate one-punch knockout power that can end any fight in an instant. In contrast, Aleksandre Topuria is the more polished, well-rounded martial artist, favored by analytics and priced accordingly as the 1.70 favorite.

The case for Topuria is built on a foundation of overwhelming statistical advantages. He lands nearly four times as many significant strikes as Almakhan, but the most crucial stat is his defense. With a 70% striking defense rate, he is exceptionally difficult to hit cleanly, a vital attribute when facing a knockout artist. This defensive acumen, paired with an 85% takedown defense and a strong Greco-Roman wrestling base, gives him the tools to dictate where the fight takes place. His path to victory is clear: weather the early storm from Almakhan, use his wrestling to fatigue the Kazakh, and then utilize his superior cardio and volume to pull away on the scorecards or find a late stoppage.

However, writing off Almakhan would be a grave mistake, and there's a reason contrarian experts see value in his 2.25 odds. His level of competition is significantly higher than Topuria's, highlighted by his bout with the elite Umar Nurmagomedov. Despite losing that fight, Almakhan scored a knockdown, proving his power is a threat to even the very best in the division. His recent first-round TKO of the notoriously tough Brad Katona—a fighter who had never been stopped before—further solidifies his reputation as a finisher. Almakhan doesn't need to win minutes; he just needs to find one perfect moment.

Ultimately, while Almakhan's power makes him a constant threat, his defensive liabilities are too significant to ignore. Absorbing 4.29 significant strikes per minute with only a 32% defense rate is a recipe for disaster against a technical and accurate striker like Topuria. The blueprint to defeat Almakhan has been established: survive his initial onslaught, grapple, and exploit his cardio. Topuria possesses the exact skillset to execute this game plan. He is the more reliable fighter with multiple paths to victory, whereas Almakhan is heavily reliant on landing a knockout blow. We're backing the process and technique of Topuria to overcome the power.

This bantamweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic matchup between two fighters heading in opposite directions. Aleksandre Topuria enters as the 1.70 favorite riding a five-fight win streak, while Bekzat Almakhan sits at 2.25 despite his recent brutal first-round TKO of Brad Katona.

The striking statistics tell a compelling story that heavily favors Topuria. His 2.73 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy, combined with elite 70% defensive metrics, creates a massive technical gap against Almakhan's concerning 0.68 strikes landed per minute and poor 32% defense rate. Absorbing 4.29 significant strikes per minute is simply unsustainable against a volume striker like Topuria.

Almakhan's path to victory is narrow but dangerous. His ten career knockouts and ability to drop elite competition like Umar Nurmagomedov prove his power is legitimate. The key question is whether he can force those early pocket exchanges where his finishing ability shines. However, his recent form suggests inconsistency - while the Katona knockout was impressive, it came against an opponent who hadn't faced this level of finishing power before.

Topuria's wrestling credentials provide a crucial safety net. His Greco-Roman background and 85% takedown defense rate offer multiple paths to victory. If the striking exchanges become dangerous, he can lean on grappling to control the fight's tempo and location.

The betting market's pricing reflects genuine uncertainty around Almakhan's knockout threat, with approximately 55% probability of the fight ending under 2.5 rounds. However, Topuria's superior cardio advantage becomes more pronounced in rounds two and three, where Almakhan historically fades.

While upset potential exists early, Topuria's technical superiority, defensive awareness, and multiple skill sets make him the logical choice. His ability to weather early storms while maintaining consistent output should prove decisive over three rounds.

As we gear up for this intriguing MMA clash between Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria on November 22, 2025, the betting landscape is buzzing with potential. Topuria enters as the favorite at 1.70, reflecting his technical edges, but Almakhan's underdog status at 2.25 offers tempting value for those eyeing an upset. Let's dive into why I'm leaning towards Topuria as the likely victor, while acknowledging the volatility that makes this fight a bettor's dream.

First off, Topuria's striking metrics are a standout. He lands 2.73 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy, while boasting an impressive 70% striking defense. This efficiency could be crucial against Almakhan, who absorbs a whopping 4.29 strikes per minute with only 32% defense. Analytics models from MMA Analytics project Topuria winning via unanimous decision or late TKO, emphasizing his 4x striking volume edge and superior cardio in later rounds. If Topuria can maintain distance and pick his shots, he neutralizes Almakhan's power early on.

That said, Almakhan isn't without his weapons. The Kazakh fighter has shown serious finishing ability, with ten career KO victories and a recent first-round TKO over Brad Katona at UFC 315—a guy who'd never been stopped before. His debut knockdown of Umar Nurmagomedov proves he can hurt elite competition. Contrarian experts at The Stats Zone back him for a TKO upset, citing his experience against tougher opponents. Almakhan's path to victory likely involves forcing those early pocket exchanges where his power shines, potentially ending the fight in the first 5-7 minutes.

However, Topuria's wrestling pedigree tips the scales for me. With an 85% takedown defense and Greco-Roman background, he can dictate the fight's pace by closing distance and grappling to wear down Almakhan. This mirrors how Nurmagomedov handled Almakhan, grinding out a decision. Topuria's five-fight win streak, even if against lesser hype, shows seamless striking-grappling transitions. His best win over Thicknesse highlights his ability to handle prospects, and with a lighter strength of schedule, he's fresher for this matchup.

Betting-wise, the odds suggest uncertainty—the fight going the distance is priced at 38% probability, with under 2.5 rounds at 55%. This volatility screams value on Topuria at 1.70, as his technical superiority should prevail unless Almakhan lands that haymaker early. For bettors, I'd recommend a play on Topuria to win by decision at potentially juicier odds, or even a small hedge on Almakhan KO prop for the thrill. Overall, Topuria's well-rounded game makes him the safer, more profitable bet in what could be a barnburner.

In this highly anticipated MMA bout between Aleksandre Topuria and Bekzat Almakhan, the betting odds set Topuria as the favorite at 1.70, while Almakhan presents an underdog opportunity at 2.25. This matchup pits Topuria's technical consistency against Almakhan's explosive power, creating a compelling scenario for bettors focused on long-term profitability. Topuria's advantages are well-documented: he boasts a significant striking volume edge, landing 2.73 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy compared to Almakhan's 0.68, and his 70% striking defense allows him to absorb minimal damage. Additionally, his Greco-Roman wrestling background and 85% takedown defense rate provide a strategic tool to control the fight's pace, neutralizing Almakhan's primary path to victory.

Almakhan's appeal lies in his knockout power, with ten career KO victories and a recent first-round TKO of Brad Katona—a fighter previously never stopped. Contrarian experts highlight his experience against elite competition, such as Umar Nurmagomedov, where he scored an early knockdown. However, his statistical profile reveals critical flaws: he absorbs 4.29 significant strikes per minute with only 32% defense, indicating a high-risk style that struggles over three rounds. Unless Almakhan lands a fight-ending blow in the first 5-7 minutes, his chances diminish sharply due to poor cardio and technical gaps.

The key to this fight is Topuria's ability to execute a smart game plan. By leveraging his wrestling to close distance and avoid pocket exchanges, he can tire Almakhan and capitalize on his cardio advantage in rounds 2-3. Analytics models project a Topuria win via unanimous decision or late TKO, emphasizing his 4x striking volume and superior defense. Almakhan's only hope is to force early chaos, but Topuria's tactical acumen and resilience make this unlikely.

From a betting perspective, Topuria's odds of 1.70 imply a 58.8% win probability, but given his comprehensive edge in striking, defense, and wrestling, his true likelihood is closer to 65-70%. This discrepancy offers positive expected value, making him the profitable choice. While Almakhan's power adds volatility, the consistent technical superiority of Topuria justifies a bet on the favorite for sustained earnings.

This matchup between Bekzat Almakhan and Aleksandre Topuria presents a fascinating clash of styles that could genuinely swing either way, making it an enticing betting opportunity. At the core of this fight is a striking-versus-grappling dynamic, where both fighters bring unique strengths that could exploit their opponent’s weaknesses. The betting odds reflect this volatility, with Almakhan listed as a slight underdog at 2.25 and Topuria slightly favored at 1.70. While the market seems to lean toward Topuria's technical precision and grappling acumen, there are compelling reasons to believe Almakhan could pull off the upset.

nTopuria enters the bout riding a five-fight win streak, showcasing his ability to seamlessly blend striking and grappling. His analytics profile is impressive: he lands 2.73 significant strikes per minute with 51% accuracy while maintaining a solid 70% striking defense. These numbers suggest he can control distance effectively and avoid taking unnecessary damage. Moreover, his Greco-Roman wrestling background and 85% takedown defense rate give him a clear path to neutralize Almakhan’s power striking by closing distance and leaning on clinch work or ground control. However, Topuria’s strength of schedule remains questionable. His most notable victory came against Thicknesse, who has since faded from relevance in the division. This raises doubts about whether his skillset will hold up against someone like Almakhan, who has faced far tougher competition.

nAlmakhan, on the other hand, offers a high-risk, high-reward proposition for bettors. Despite his inferior striking metrics—landing just 0.68 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy—he possesses devastating knockout power, evidenced by his ten career KO victories. His recent performance against Brad Katona, where he delivered a first-round TKO, underscores his finishing ability. Katona had never been stopped before, which speaks volumes about Almakhan’s capacity to end fights quickly when he lands clean. Additionally, Almakhan’s experience against elite opponents such as Umar Nurmagomedov demonstrates his resilience and ability to perform under pressure. Although he lost that fight via decision, knocking down Nurmagomedov early highlights his potential to hurt even top-tier fighters.

nThe key to this fight lies in how each fighter approaches the opening rounds. MMA Analytics projects Topuria to dominate later in the fight due to his superior cardio and volume-based striking, but Almakhan’s best chance is within the first five to seven minutes. If he can force early exchanges and catch Topuria with a powerful counter or combination, he has a legitimate shot at ending the fight before Topuria settles into his rhythm. Conversely, if Topuria survives the initial storm and implements his grappling-heavy strategy, he will likely wear Almakhan down over time. The Kazakh’s porous striking defense (absorbing 4.29 significant strikes per minute with only 32% defense) makes him vulnerable to sustained pressure, particularly if Topuria uses feints and footwork to create openings.

nThe betting line suggests moderate confidence in Topuria, but not overwhelmingly so. With Almakhan priced at 2.25, there’s value in backing the underdog given his proven knockout power and strong recent form. Bettors should also consider that the market assigns a 38% probability to the fight going the distance, implying significant respect for Almakhan’s ability to finish early. For those seeking a more conservative play, Topuria at 1.70 provides a safer option, though his relatively untested resume against higher-caliber opposition introduces some risk.