Betting tips from AI for Belal Muhammad vs Ian Garry, 22 November 2025.

High-level welterweight stakes in Doha bring a classic clash of styles: Ian Garry’s rangy, disciplined kickboxing against Belal Muhammad’s suffocating pressure wrestling and five-round engine. The crowd will be split and loud, but there’s no material injury or camp turmoil to skew the handicap. On tape and in recent results, Garry looks sharper at range and continues to layer in smart grappling, while Belal remains the division’s most reliable minute-stealer when he can wedge opponents to the fence and grind.

The market is leaning hard to Garry. Our book shows Garry at 1.38, Belal at 3.25, and the draw at 41.00. Notably, recent consensus pricing cited in pre-fight coverage hovered closer to 1.44 on Garry and 2.90 on Belal, so we’re seeing an extra push toward the favorite. Media and pros largely side with Garry by decision—Bisping and the Bloody Elbow panel both cited his range control and youth—yet even those takes acknowledge the fight could be close if Belal’s pressure starts to stick.

Technically, Garry’s strengths are obvious: long jab, feints, reactive counters, and disciplined exits that keep him out of wrestling exchanges. He’s shown composure against punchers like Geoff Neal and navigated awkward range games versus Michael “MVP” Page, while adding cleaner shot selection in the Carlos Prates win. His grappling looks increasingly functional—better underhooks, faster hip escapes, and improved decision-making on the mat.

Belal brings the antidote: chain wrestling, clinch rides, and relentless resets that siphon an opponent’s rhythm. He’s proven over championship pacing, handled a five-round grinder against Gilbert Burns, and he rarely gives minutes away once he gets to his spots. He’s tightened his boxing—straighter entries behind the jab, smarter cage cuts—while staying difficult to hurt clean. His recent narrow loss to Jack Della Maddalena doesn’t dent the profile much; it underscores his durability and adaptability at the elite level.

Tactically, early minutes favor Garry’s kicks and footwork. The swing factor is how often Belal can compress the cage, force clinch mat returns, and make Garry pummel instead of pivot. If Belal lands the calf kick to slow exits and times level changes behind double-jabs, the fight tilts toward attritional control. If Garry keeps first-layer takedowns off and wins stance battles at the logo, he outpoints Belal round by round.

Here’s the betting crux. Implied probabilities: 1.38 suggests ~72.7% for Garry; 3.25 implies ~30.8% for Belal. My number is closer to Garry 58–62% and Belal 38–42% in a five-round, decision-heavy dynamic. With a $1 stake, 1.38 returns only ~+$0.38 on a win and needs north of 72% to break even—negative expected value at my estimate. At 3.25, the breakeven is ~30.8%; if Belal is even 38%, the expected value is clearly positive.

Yes, Garry may look like the better minute-winner on optics, but Belal’s path—cage time, control, and later-round momentum—often translates into judges’ scorecards. The draw at 41.00 remains a long-shot novelty in MMA with no structural edge to justify it. The smartest $1 is on the dog price that’s drifted too far.

The pick: Belal Muhammad moneyline at 3.25, leaning by decision in a competitive fight where his grind, cardio, and experience play up over 25 minutes.

This welterweight showdown is a quintessential clash of styles, pitting the relentless grinding pressure of Belal Muhammad against the slick, technical striking of the surging Ian Garry. The betting lines tell a clear story, with Garry positioned as a significant favorite at 1.38, leaving Muhammad as the tempting underdog at 3.25. This reflects a strong market belief in Garry's momentum and stylistic advantages.

Belal Muhammad's entire game is built on a foundation of suffocating wrestling and cardio for days. His strategy is no secret: close the distance, press his opponent against the cage, secure takedowns, and grind out a victory through control and ground-and-pound. His 10-fight unbeaten streak was a testament to the effectiveness of this approach against a wide array of opponents. However, his recent narrow loss to Jack Della Maddalena exposed a potential vulnerability: a high-volume, technical striker can find openings and do damage. While Muhammad has worked on his boxing, it remains a tool to set up his grappling rather than a primary weapon.

On the other side stands Ian Garry, a fighter living up to his "The Future" moniker. Garry is a new-generation striker with exceptional footwork, range management, and a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His recent wins over Michael 'MVP' Page and Geoff Neal showcased his ability to dissect opponents from a distance, staying safe while accumulating significant damage. Crucially, as noted by experts, his grappling and submission defense have shown marked improvement, making him less susceptible to the one-dimensional wrestlers of the past. He is no longer just a striker; he's a complete MMA fighter.

The outcome of this fight will be decided by distance and control. Can Muhammad successfully navigate Garry's striking to get into the clinch and initiate his wrestling game? Or will Garry use his superior movement and reach to keep Muhammad at the end of his strikes, picking him apart for five rounds? The expert consensus, from Michael Bisping to the entire Bloody Elbow staff, leans heavily toward the latter. They see Garry's youth, speed, and technical striking as the keys to neutralizing Muhammad's pressure. While Muhammad's experience and toughness can never be counted out, Garry's style seems tailor-made to frustrate him. We anticipate Garry controlling the octagon, stuffing the majority of takedown attempts, and landing the cleaner, more significant strikes throughout the contest to earn a clear decision victory.

This welterweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic puzzle that could define both fighters' championship trajectories. Ian Garry enters as the 1.38 favorite, and the consensus among experts strongly supports this line for compelling reasons.

Garry's recent evolution has been remarkable. His victories over Michael Page and Geoff Neal demonstrated significant improvements in his grappling game, addressing what was previously considered his biggest weakness. His disciplined kickboxing and ability to control range have consistently frustrated opponents, while his youth and athleticism provide clear physical advantages over the 36-year-old Muhammad.

Belal Muhammad's recent setback against Jack Della Maddalena exposed some concerning trends. The loss snapped his impressive 10-fight unbeaten streak and raised questions about his ability to handle elite-level striking. While Muhammad's pressure wrestling remains formidable, Garry's improved takedown defense and submission threats have significantly reduced this advantage.

The expert predictions paint a clear picture. Michael Bisping's analysis highlighting Garry's 'elite striking and youth' echoes throughout the MMA community, with Bloody Elbow's entire staff backing Garry by decision. The pro fighter polls consistently favor the Irishman, emphasizing his 'slick movement and improved grappling.'

Muhammad's path to victory requires dragging Garry into deep waters where experience matters most. However, Garry's recent performances suggest he's developed the grappling acumen and fight IQ to neutralize Muhammad's pressure game. The 3.25 odds on Muhammad reflect genuine underdog status rather than value.

Garry's momentum, technical improvements, and physical advantages make him the logical choice despite the relatively short odds.

As we gear up for this intriguing MMA clash at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, on November 22, 2025, all eyes are on Belal Muhammad and Ian Garry. The odds have Garry as the clear favorite at 1.38, while Muhammad sits as the underdog at 3.25, with a draw way out at 41.00. This matchup pits Muhammad's veteran grit against Garry's rising star power, and it's got the makings of a tactical chess match in the octagon.

Let's break down the styles first. Ian Garry, the Irish sensation, has been on a tear with wins over tough guys like Carlos Prates, Michael 'MVP' Page, and Geoff Neal. His elite striking and improved grappling give him a serious edge in controlling the range. Experts like Michael Bisping and the Bloody Elbow staff are all in on Garry, pointing to his youth, slick movement, and ability to outpoint opponents over five rounds. At 27, Garry's got that explosive energy and disciplined kickboxing that could keep Muhammad at bay, especially if he avoids getting smothered against the cage.

On the flip side, Belal Muhammad isn't someone to underestimate. Coming off a narrow loss to Jack Della Maddalena that snapped his 10-fight unbeaten streak, he's refocused on his boxing while leaning on his trademark suffocating pressure wrestling. Muhammad's experience in high-stakes fights could be the X-factor here— he's 36 but has shown he can grind out decisions against top competition. Some pro fighters noted on BJPenn.com that if the fight drags on, Muhammad's relentless pace might wear down Garry, who hasn't faced this level of wrestling pressure consistently.

Betting-wise, I'm leaning towards Garry as the pick, but there's value in considering Muhammad as an underdog play. The public money is heavy on Garry, pushing those 1.38 odds, which means a bet on Muhammad at 3.25 could yield a nice payout if he pulls off the upset. However, based on recent form and expert consensus, Garry's momentum and striking precision should carry him to a decision win. The atmosphere in Doha, with fans from both sides, adds to the hype, but no injuries or scandals mean we're getting a clean, skill-based fight.

In terms of strategy, Garry needs to use his footwork to stay off the fence and pick apart Muhammad from distance. Muhammad, meanwhile, will look to close the gap early and turn this into a wrestling clinic. If Garry can stuff those takedowns and keep it standing, he edges it out. For bettors, I'd suggest a small play on Garry to win by decision, but keep an eye on live betting if Muhammad starts strong. This one's going to be close, folks—don't miss it!

This matchup pits the relentless pressure wrestling of Belal Muhammad against the slick, range-controlling striking of Ian Garry. Garry enters as the favorite for good reason: at 1.38, the market reflects his significant advantages in youth, speed, and technical kickboxing. His ability to manage distance with sharp jabs and powerful low kicks, as demonstrated against fighters like Geoff Neal, will be crucial in keeping the durable Muhammad at bay. The consensus from analysts and fighters, including Michael Bisping and the Bloody Elbow staff, points toward Garry winning a decision by outworking Muhammad on the feet over five rounds.

However, dismissing Muhammad, the underdog at 3.25, would be a mistake. His path to victory is clear: close the distance, smother Garry's offense, and implement his suffocating top control. Muhammad's recent focus on boxing fundamentals, combined with his exceptional cardio and experience in five-round fights, means he can push a grueling pace that tests Garry's defensive grappling and mental fortitude. His loss to Jack Della Maddalena was a narrow split decision, proving he remains an elite-level competitor who is never an easy out.

The key factor tipping the scales is Garry's demonstrated growth and fight IQ. His recent victories, including a submission win, show he is no longer just a pure striker but a well-rounded martial artist who can adapt. Fighting in Doha adds a layer of pressure, but Garry has thrived in hostile environments before. While Muhammad's pressure will make moments of this fight uncomfortable, Garry's disciplined movement and sharper, more diverse striking arsenal should allow him to accumulate damage and win rounds on the judges' scorecards, making the favorite odds a more probable and profitable bet in the long run.

This matchup between Belal Muhammad and Ian Garry promises to be a fascinating clash of styles, with each fighter bringing distinct strengths into the Octagon. On paper, Ian Garry’s striking acumen and youth make him a formidable favorite at 1.38, but the nuances of this fight suggest that Belal Muhammad could offer significant value as an underdog at 3.25. Let’s break down the dynamics that will likely shape the outcome.
Belal Muhammad is known for his relentless pressure and grappling-heavy approach, which has served him well throughout his career. Coming off a narrow loss to Jack Della Maddalena—a fight many observers believe he did enough to win—he has demonstrated remarkable consistency against high-level competition. His ability to grind opponents down over multiple rounds cannot be underestimated, especially given that he excels in controlling the pace of fights. While his striking isn’t flashy, it’s functional and improved enough to hold its own against more technical strikers. The Bloody Elbow staff predicts Garry winning by decision, yet they overlook how challenging it can be to outpoint someone like Muhammad who constantly presses forward and forces opponents to engage on his terms. If Muhammad can drag Garry into deep waters late in the fight, fatigue may become a factor."The key talking point heading into this bout is Ian Garry’s perceived edge in striking and movement. Garry’s recent performances have showcased not only his slick footwork and precision but also improvements in his grappling defense—a crucial aspect when facing a wrestler like Muhammad. Analysts such as Michael Bisping highlight Garry’s “elite striking” and see his ability to control range as pivotal to securing a victory. However, while Garry has looked impressive against notable names like Michael Page and Geoff Neal, none of those fighters impose the same suffocating style that Muhammad brings. Garry’s path to victory likely involves maintaining distance and picking apart Muhammad with kicks and jabs while avoiding takedowns. But if Muhammad gets inside and starts imposing his will, Garry’s game plan could unravel quickly."One area where Muhammad may have the upper hand is experience. At 36 years old, he has fought longer and faced tougher competition than Garry, who is still relatively early in his UFC journey. This experience often translates to better decision-making under pressure and the mental fortitude required to push through adversity. For all of Garry’s physical gifts, there’s no substitute for having been in the trenches against elite opposition. Muhammad’s wrestling pedigree gives him another layer of versatility; even if Garry lands clean shots early, Muhammad’s durability and ability to adapt should keep him competitive. Furthermore, Muhammad’s focus on refining his boxing fundamentals suggests he might surprise people with sharper counters than expected."While public perception heavily favors Garry—reflected in the lopsided betting odds—it’s worth noting that oddsmakers sometimes overvalue hype around rising stars. The narrative surrounding Garry as the young phenom contrasts sharply with Muhammad’s image as a grinder, yet narratives don’t always align with reality inside the cage. Bettors must ask whether Garry truly possesses the tools to neutralize Muhammad’s pressure or if his skill set will falter under sustained aggression. Given the disparity in odds, Muhammad represents excellent value, particularly considering his proven track record against top-tier opponents."The venue adds another intriguing element to this contest. Fighting in Doha, Qatar, ensures both fighters will have passionate supporters in attendance. However, home-cage advantage rarely plays a decisive role in MMA unless one fighter thrives on crowd energy more than the other. In this case, neither competitor seems particularly reliant on external motivation, so the atmosphere is unlikely to sway the result significantly.