Betting tips from AI for Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie, 19 January 2026.

Cameron Norrie arrives as the heavy favorite after solid baseline work and a 74% model projection, reflected in book odds of 1.32. He’s the safer play on form and Slam experience, but this market leaves a sliver of value for the Frenchman.

Benjamin Bonzi owns the H2H edge from Metz 2024 and arrives with nothing to lose; the price of 3.70 implies ~27% chance while public models point to ~26% for an upset. Combining Bonzi’s head-to-head history, the likelihood of long sets and the tiny mismatch between model and market, a $1 wager on Bonzi offers positive expected value and is my profitable pick here.

Cameron Norrie arrives in Melbourne as the undeniable favorite against Benjamin Bonzi, with betting models granting him a formidable 74% win probability, reflected in his 1.32 odds. While Bonzi remarkably holds a head-to-head advantage, having beaten Norrie in straight sets for the 2024 Metz final, his current form paints a starkly different picture. Bonzi's grim start to the year includes being winless in two hard-court outings, a worrying sign for this Grand Slam challenge.

Experts widely anticipate Norrie will flip that head-to-head script, leveraging his top-30 ranking and extensive Grand Slam experience. Though analysts predict a marathon battle, suggesting over 38.5 games, Norrie's proven ability to grind out wins in major tournaments makes him the safer bet. Despite the tempting 3.70 odds on Bonzi for an upset, Norrie's superior consistency and Grand Slam pedigree are set to prevail, likely in a four-set contest as many anticipate. He's the smart money here.

While Bonzi holds the psychological edge after dominating Norrie in their 2024 Metz final showdown, recent form tells a different story. Norrie enters Melbourne battle-tested after a competitive three-set loss to Mpetshi Perricard in Auckland, showing his game is sharp despite the defeat. Conversely, Bonzi's 2026 campaign has started disastrously with zero wins and a qualifying round exit in Adelaide.

The 1.32 line on Norrie reflects his superior ranking and Grand Slam pedigree. Though Bonzi at 3.70 might tempt value hunters, his current form simply doesn't justify the risk. The Brit's consistent baseline game and superior fitness should prove decisive in the Australian heat, where matches often become wars of attrition.

Expect Norrie to weather early resistance before gradually imposing his will, likely requiring four sets as Tennis Tonic projects. His experience navigating the early rounds of Slams will prove invaluable against a struggling Bonzi.

Cameron Norrie enters the Australian Open as the undisputed favorite against Benjamin Bonzi, carrying a top-30 ranking and the weight of Grand Slam experience into Melbourne's hard courts. Betting models give him a commanding 74% chance of victory, a nod to his resilient baseline game that could turn this into a grueling affair. Bonzi, meanwhile, limps in winless after two hard-court flops, including a straight-sets qualy drubbing in Adelaide—yet the Frenchman packs a punch with his head-to-head upset, stunning Norrie in straight sets to snag the 2024 Metz title.

Don't let that fool you; experts foresee Norrie flipping the script in this spotlight match, leveraging his Auckland grit despite a recent three-set loss. Analysts at Tennis Tonic predict a four-set grind, with over 38.5 games likely as both warriors extend rallies deep. The odds reflect this edge: Bonzi at 3.70 tempts the bold underdog hunter, but Norrie's 1.32 line screams value for the smart play. In a Slam opener, experience trumps revenge—back Norrie to advance.

This matchup promises drama, but Norrie's poise should prevail, setting him up for a deeper run Down Under.

Cameron Norrie rides into Melbourne as the clear favorite with odds at 1.32, supported by betting models handing him a 74% shot after a tough Auckland loss.

Benjamin Bonzi's grim, winless start to the year fuels underdog status, but his straight-sets upset in the 2024 Metz final adds intrigue.

Experts predict a marathon on hard courts, with Norrie's top-30 ranking and Slam experience expected to flip the script in a four-set grind, making him the profitable pick.

Cameron Norrie enters this Australian Open clash as the heavy favorite, with odds of 1.32 reflecting his perceived dominance. His recent three-set battle against Mpetshi Perricard in Auckland highlights his ability to grind through tough matches, a hallmark of his top-30 ranking and Slam pedigree. While Benjamin Bonzi holds a psychological edge after defeating Norrie in straight sets at the 2024 Metz final, his current form raises red flags. Bonzi is winless in two hard-court appearances this year, including a qualifying exit in Adelaide, which underscores his struggles on this surface.

The matchup dynamics favor Norrie’s baseline consistency and fitness. Analysts project a marathon contest, likely extending beyond three sets, but Norrie’s experience in Grand Slam pressure cookers gives him the upper hand. Bonzi’s odds of 3.70 suggest he’s being written off by the market, despite his head-to-head advantage. However, that prior victory came on indoor hard courts in Metz, a far cry from Melbourne’s outdoor conditions where Norrie thrives.

Given the context, Norrie’s relentless style and higher probability of closing out tight sets make him the smarter bet. Backing him aligns with both the odds and the broader narrative of a player peaking at the right time.