Betting tips from AI for Birmingham City vs Derby County, 26 December 2025.

Boxing Day at St Andrew’s should be loud and tense, and bookmakers have priced this as a tight, low-scoring affair with Birmingham the slight favorite at 1.89. Birmingham’s recent form is worrying — one win in five and a 3-0 shellacking at Sheffield United — while Jordi Osei-Tutu is out and Juninho Bacuna is doubtful, forcing a more conservative midfield shape that saps attacking punch.
Derby arrive unbeaten in three and boosted by a 3-0 away win; Paul Merson highlights their counter-attacking threat, but a minor set-piece spat and Joe Ward’s hamstring absence leave questions at the back. Both sides have goal-drought concerns and defensive frailties, so a cagey game looks likely.
Given the home pressure, Derby’s road resilience, and the likelihood of limited chances, the draw at 3.48 represents the best $1-value play — sensible, low-scoring, and priced to reward a stalemate.

This Boxing Day clash at St Andrew's looks set to be a cagey affair, with plenty of factors pointing towards a stalemate. Birmingham City comes into this match in worrying form, with just one win in their last five league outings and a recent 3-0 thrashing. Former striker Clayton Donaldson's warning about their need for a "cutting edge" up front rings true, especially with key players like Osei-Tutu injured and Bacuna doubtful, forcing a more defensive midfield shape from boss John Eustace.

Derby County, conversely, arrive with momentum, unbeaten in three across all competitions, including a convincing away victory. Pundit Paul Merson highlights Derby's counter-attack as their "X-factor," a threat Birmingham's potentially defensive setup might struggle to contain. While Derby has a minor dressing-room spat and defender Joe Ward out, their recent resilience on the road, as noted by bookmakers pricing this match tight with a preference for a low-scoring encounter, suggests they can hold their own. Given Birmingham's struggles to score and Derby's ability to nick a point, the Draw at 3.48 offers excellent value.

Birmingham City's home form has been concerning with just one win in their last five league matches, culminating in a 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United. The absence of wing-back Jordi Osei-Tutu and potential reshuffling in midfield due to Juninho Bacuna's doubtful status could further hamper their tactical approach.

Meanwhile, Derby County comes in with momentum, unbeaten in three matches including an impressive 3-0 away victory. Paul Merson's assessment of Derby's counter-attacking threat seems particularly relevant given Birmingham's recent defensive issues.

Despite Birmingham being favored at 1.89, Derby's odds of 4.24 look tempting considering their form trajectory. The reported dressing room tensions over set-pieces at Derby appears to have been addressed through extra meetings, suggesting a team working to solve its problems.

With St Andrew's expected to be vocal, home pressure could actually work against Birmingham if they don't show early cutting edge, as Clayton Donaldson warned. Derby's resilience on the road makes them value at these odds.

Birmingham City head into this Boxing Day showdown at St Andrew's as slight favorites, but their recent form raises eyebrows. The Blues are reeling from a 3-0 thrashing at Sheffield United and have just one win in five league games, exposing vulnerabilities up front as former striker Clayton Donaldson notes. With wing-back Jordi Osei-Tutu out and Juninho Bacuna doubtful, John Eustace may opt for a cautious midfield setup, potentially stifling their attack against Derby's potent counter-attacks—pundit Paul Merson highlights the Rams' transitions as a game-changer.

Derby County, meanwhile, arrive with momentum, unbeaten in three and fresh off a 3-0 away win that boosts their road resilience. Yet, internal drama over set-pieces and the absence of central defender Joe Ward could unsettle their backline, especially in a raucous atmosphere. Bookmakers see it tight at 1.89 for Birmingham, 4.24 for Derby, and 3.48 for a draw, pointing to a low-scoring scrap given both sides' defensive wobbles and goal droughts.

For bettors eyeing value, the draw offers intrigue at those plus-money odds, as Derby might nick a point on the break while Birmingham labors to break down a stubborn defense. St Andrew's passion could fuel the hosts, but form suggests a stalemate over a clear winner.

Birmingham City's home form is a real concern after a 3-0 loss and just one win in five, worsened by injuries to Osei-Tutu and Bacuna, forcing a defensive setup that stifles attack.

Derby County enter unbeaten in three, with a 3-0 away victory boosting momentum, though missing Joe Ward and dealing with set-piece tensions. Their counter-attack edge, noted by pundits, could capitalize on Birmingham's frailties.

A packed St Andrew's adds pressure, but with both teams eyeing a low-scoring clash, the draw at 3.48 presents strong value against tight odds.

Birmingham City’s recent struggles make them a risky proposition despite their home advantage. With just one win in five games and coming off a heavy 3-0 defeat at Sheffield United, the Blues are lacking confidence. The absence of key players like Jordi Osei-Tutu and doubts over Juninho Bacuna’s fitness could force John Eustace into a more conservative setup, which may blunt their attacking threat further. Former striker Clayton Donaldson’s comments about the lack of cutting edge up front add weight to concerns that Birmingham might struggle to break down Derby’s defense.
Derby County, on the other hand, arrive with momentum after going unbeaten in their last three games, including an impressive 3-0 away victory. While their dressing-room tensions over set-piece routines have been noted, manager Phillip Cocu appears to have addressed this through team meetings. Although they’ll miss central defender Joe Ward, youngster Jamie Paterson’s inclusion could inject energy into their backline. Pundit Paul Merson’s assertion that Derby’s counter-attack is their X-factor cannot be ignored, especially against a Birmingham side likely to dominate possession but lack precision.
The odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding this clash. Birmingham’s 1.89 suggests bookmakers see them as slight favorites due to home advantage, while Derby’s 4.24 highlights their underdog status. However, the draw at 3.48 looks tempting given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities and goal-scoring issues. St Andrew’s will undoubtedly be lively on Boxing Day, but this may not be enough to inspire a Birmingham win.
Considering all factors, a tightly contested affair seems likely, with neither team possessing the clinical edge needed for victory. A draw feels like the most probable outcome.