Betting tips from AI for Boise State Broncos vs Colorado State Rams, 23 November 2025.

Boise State enters as a heavy home favorite on the blue turf, priced at 1.11, while Colorado State sits at a long-shot 6.77. The market is baking in an almost auto-pilot Boise win, but the underlying form and matchup dynamics suggest the true gap may be narrower than the price implies, creating value on the Rams for a small-stake moneyline stab.

Start with Boise: the defense is capable of flipping fields, and the blue turf plus a cold-but-clear night brings the usual home-comfort edge. Ian Johnson’s note about the Broncos forcing turnovers and controlling the ground is credible, especially with RB Dylan Riley as the offensive focal point. But the quarterback situation is real: Maddux Madsen remains out and backup Max Cutforth is in just his second career start. Boise has mustered only one offensive touchdown in each of its last two games and dropped back-to-back contests to Fresno State and San Diego State, citing a lack of explosive plays. When a big favorite can’t separate on offense, the door stays open for randomness in the fourth quarter.

Colorado State’s 2-8 record and four-game skid are why the number is so large, but freshman QB Darius Curry flashed last week with 248 yards and two scores; the three interceptions are the caution sign. As Trevor Matich noted, if Curry limits mistakes, he can surprise. The Rams’ run defense (186 rush yards allowed per game, 20 rush TDs surrendered) is the biggest concern, because Boise wants to hammer the ground. Yet that clarity also simplifies CSU’s plan: stack the box, live with single coverage, and dare Cutforth and a sputtering passing game to beat you. If the Rams can trim the explosive runs and avoid turnover avalanches, a one-score script is very live.

This shapes up as a variance game: Boise’s run-heavy approach shortens possessions; combined with their passing limitations, it suppresses margin and elevates upset probability. The posted price implies Boise around 90% to win, but given the QB issues, recent slide, and CSU’s pass-game upside, I project something closer to 78–82%. That puts the Rams in the 18–22% range—comfortably above the 6.77 break-even of ~14.8%.

Recommendation: for a $1 bet, take the value side with Colorado State moneyline at 6.77. Boise State likely grinds out a win, but the price is inflated; the underdog offers superior expected value in a game that profiles tighter than the market suggests.

At first glance, the odds tell a simple story: the Boise State Broncos are overwhelming favorites at 1.11, while the Colorado State Rams are distant longshots at 6.77. However, a deeper dive into the current state of these two programs reveals a matchup that is far more nuanced and presents a classic betting dilemma between a wounded favorite and a flawed underdog.

Boise State is in a precarious position. The loss of starting quarterback Maddux Madsen has crippled their offense, forcing them to rely on inexperienced backup Max Cutforth. The results have been alarming, with the team scoring just a single touchdown in each of its last two games—both losses that knocked them from the top of the Mountain West. The entire offensive game plan now hinges on running back Dylan Riley and a ground game that has become predictable. While Riley is a capable back, this one-dimensional approach makes the Broncos vulnerable and explains why insiders like Ian Johnson predict a game that could be much closer than the odds suggest.

On the other side, Colorado State is having a miserable season at 2-8 and riding a four-game losing streak. Yet, they have a flicker of hope in freshman quarterback Darius Curry. As highlighted by ESPN's Trevor Matich, Curry has the potential to be a difference-maker, evidenced by his 248-yard, 2-touchdown performance last week. The problem is his volatility; those flashes of brilliance were accompanied by three costly interceptions. His performance will be the ultimate X-factor. If he can protect the football, the Rams have a puncher's chance. If he's careless, he'll be feeding a Boise State defense that will be playing with desperation on its home turf.

The decisive factor in this contest, however, is likely to be in the trenches. Colorado State’s defense has been abysmal against the run, surrendering an average of 186 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns on the season. This is a fatal weakness against a Boise State team whose only functional offensive strategy is to run the ball. Expect the Broncos to lean heavily on Dylan Riley, control the clock, and grind out long, methodical drives. This strategy will not only exploit the Rams' biggest defensive liability but will also protect their own backup quarterback from having to win the game with his arm.

Ultimately, while the 1.11 price on Boise State offers absolutely no betting value, they are the clear and logical pick to win the game outright. The combination of playing on their iconic blue turf, facing a turnover-prone freshman QB, and possessing a rushing attack that perfectly matches up against a weak run defense creates a straightforward path to victory. It won't be pretty, and it might be a low-scoring, frustrating affair for Broncos fans, but Boise State should have enough to bully their way to a much-needed win.

This Mountain West clash presents a fascinating betting opportunity despite the lopsided odds favoring Boise State at 1.11. While the Broncos are heavy favorites, several factors suggest this spread may be inflated beyond its true value.

Boise State's recent struggles cannot be ignored. The Broncos have dropped consecutive games to Fresno State and San Diego State, falling from the Mountain West summit due to offensive inconsistencies. The quarterback situation remains their Achilles heel, with starter Maddux Madsen sidelined and backup Max Cutforth making just his second career start. The offense has managed only one touchdown in each of their last two outings, a concerning trend that limits their ability to pull away from opponents.

Colorado State enters at 2-8 with four straight losses, making them appear like easy prey. However, freshman quarterback Darius Curry's recent performance against New Mexico tells a different story. Despite three interceptions, Curry threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns, showing the explosive potential that ESPN's Trevor Matich highlighted. Young quarterbacks often make dramatic improvements week-to-week, and Curry's arm talent could exploit any defensive lapses.

The key matchup lies in Boise State's ground game versus Colorado State's porous run defense. The Rams surrender 186 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns this season, creating an obvious path to victory for Dylan Riley and the Broncos' rushing attack. This fundamental advantage should allow Boise State to control the clock and limit Curry's opportunities.

Playing on the famous blue turf provides Boise State with their traditional home-field advantage, while clear weather conditions eliminate any equalizing factors. The Broncos' defensive capability to force turnovers, as noted by former player Ian Johnson, could prove decisive against Curry's turnover-prone tendencies.

While Colorado State at 6.77 offers tempting value, Boise State's superior talent and home-field advantage should ultimately prevail, despite their recent offensive struggles.

As we gear up for this Mountain West showdown on Boise State's iconic blue turf, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game skid against a struggling Colorado State squad. With odds heavily favoring Boise State at 1.11, it's clear the bookmakers see them as dominant, but recent hiccups add some intrigue. The home team has dropped games to Fresno State and San Diego State, largely due to offensive woes tied to quarterback injuries. Starter Maddux Madsen is out, leaving backup Max Cutforth to helm the ship in just his second start. The Broncos have managed only one touchdown per game in their last two outings, which is concerning for a team that prides itself on explosiveness.

That said, Boise State's ground game could be the X-factor here. Running back Dylan Riley has been a workhorse, pounding out 79 yards and a score last week despite the loss. Facing a Colorado State defense that's been gashed for 186 rushing yards per game and 20 touchdowns on the ground this season, Riley and company should feast. Former Boise State star Ian Johnson echoed this on local radio, predicting the Broncos' defense will force turnovers while controlling the run—key against a Rams team that's turnover-prone.

On the flip side, Colorado State enters at 2-8 with four straight losses, their latest a narrow defeat to New Mexico where freshman QB Darius Curry flashed potential with 248 yards and two TDs but undermined it with three picks. ESPN's Trevor Matich notes Curry could surprise if he cleans up mistakes, but that's a big if for a young signal-caller on the road. The Rams' overall struggles, especially defensively against the run, make an upset at 6.77 feel like a long shot, even with Boise's QB issues making things closer than expected.

Home-field advantage can't be understated—the blue turf and raucous crowd often psyche out opponents, and with clear but cold weather, no external factors should disrupt play. Boise State's anxious fanbase is buzzing on talk shows, but this feels like a get-right game for the Broncos to regain footing in the standings. While the spread suggests a blowout, I see a gritty win where the run game and defense carry them, potentially covering if they force those predicted turnovers. Betting on Boise State here aligns with value, given their talent edge despite recent form—expect them to grind out a victory and halt the slide.

Boise State enters this game with clear vulnerabilities, but their path to victory remains the most reliable given the matchup dynamics. The quarterback injury to Maddux Madsen is a significant concern, as backup Max Cutforth has struggled to generate offensive firepower, with the team scoring just one touchdown in each of their last two outings. This has forced the Broncos to lean heavily on their running game, spearheaded by Dylan Riley, who is coming off a 21-carry, 79-yard performance. While this offensive limitation is real, it aligns well against a Colorado State defense that has been porous against the run, allowing 186 rushing yards per game and 20 touchdowns on the ground this season. This mismatch in the trenches gives Boise State a tangible, repeatable advantage they can exploit to control the clock and field position.

Colorado State’s own issues are more systemic and harder to overcome in a single game. Riding a four-game losing streak and sitting at 2-8, the Rams are in a deep rebuild. Freshman quarterback Darius Curry showed encouraging flashes last week with 248 yards and two touchdowns, but his three interceptions in that narrow loss to New Mexico underscore the critical problem: inconsistency and costly mistakes. Facing a Boise State defense that, according to Ian Johnson, is expected to 'force turnovers,' Curry's propensity for errors could be the Rams' undoing. While his potential is a narrative hook, betting on a freshman quarterback to play a clean, mistake-free game on the road against a motivated defense is a high-risk proposition.

The betting odds reflect this risk calculus perfectly. Boise State is a heavy favorite at 1.11, meaning you must risk $87.10 to win $10. This steep price acknowledges their flaws but also their superior talent, home-field advantage on the famous blue turf, and a favorable matchup against a weak run defense. Conversely, Colorado State at 6.77 offers a massive payout, but it is a sucker's bet for anyone seeking consistent profit. The Rams' path to an outright win requires multiple 'if's'—if Curry plays a perfect game, if the defense suddenly stiffens, and if Boise State's offense completely implodes. The most probable outcome is a grinding, low-scoring Boise State victory powered by their run game and defense, making them the only logical choice for a profitable, value-driven wager, even at the expensive price.

This game presents an intriguing matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions, though Boise State remains the heavy favorite with odds of 1.11. The Broncos’ recent struggles, particularly on offense, cannot be ignored. Their last two games have seen them score just one touchdown apiece, largely due to the absence of starting quarterback Maddux Madsen. Backup Max Cutforth has yet to prove he can consistently lead the offense, and while the team is leaning heavily on running back Dylan Riley, defenses are now stacking the box to stop him. Still, Boise State’s defense remains formidable, especially against a Colorado State offense that has been turnover-prone.
Colorado State enters this contest as a heavy underdog with odds of 6.77, but their young quarterback Darius Curry showed promise in last week’s loss to New Mexico. Curry threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns, albeit with three costly interceptions. If Curry can limit his mistakes, he could exploit a Boise State secondary that has occasionally looked vulnerable this season. However, the Rams’ defense has been atrocious against the run, surrendering 186 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns this season. This weakness could be catastrophic against Boise State’s strong ground attack, even if their passing game remains limited.
One key factor working in Boise State’s favor is their home-field advantage on the iconic blue turf. Historically, visiting teams struggle to adapt to the unique playing surface, and the Broncos’ fans will undoubtedly create an electric atmosphere. Additionally, Ian Johnson’s comments about the Broncos’ defense forcing turnovers and controlling the ground game align with what we’ve seen from this unit all season. While their offense may not light up the scoreboard, their ability to control time of possession through the run game will wear down Colorado State’s defense.
That said, Boise State’s recent losses to Fresno State and San Diego State show they are beatable when their offense sputters. The absence of Madsen looms large, and if Cutforth fails to execute effectively, the Broncos could find themselves in another close game. However, Colorado State’s four-game losing streak and porous rush defense make it difficult to envision them pulling off the upset. Even if Curry has another solid performance, the Rams’ inability to stop the run will likely doom them.