Betting tips from AI for Bologna vs Fiorentina, 18 January 2026.

Bologna host Fiorentina in a volatile Apennine derby with clear betting value on the home side. Book odds: Bologna 2.25, Fiorentina 3.45, Draw 3.36.

Form and context matter: Bologna have regained momentum with three straight wins and a gritty 3-2 comeback that halted a slump, while Fiorentina’s revival under Paolo Vanoli has steadied them after a climb from the bottom. Missing Nicolo Cambiaghi (suspension) and defensive absences are a concern, but Bologna’s strong Dall’Ara record — three straight wins over the Viola there — and the motivation of a top-four push are decisive.

Both teams are leaky, so expect an open game and goals, but home edge, recent H2H dominance and the reasonable price make backing Bologna the pragmatic, value-first play. A $1 stake at 2.25 offers tidy upside while backing a side with momentum and favorable history.

This Apennine derby promises fireworks as Bologna, fresh off a gritty 3-2 comeback win, aims for a top-four spot. Despite snapping a seven-game skid, the Rossoblù face a tough test against a resurgent Fiorentina, who, under Paolo Vanoli, drew at Milan and suffered only one loss in five, climbing from rock-bottom. Bologna's home advantage is historically significant, boasting three straight victories over Fiorentina at Dall'Ara, making their 2.25 odds appealing. However, the hosts are hit with suspensions and injuries to Lucumi, Bernadeschi, and Cambiaghi, forcing defensive adjustments. Both teams are leaky at the back – Bologna hasn't kept a clean sheet in 13 games, and Fiorentina has dropped 20 points from leads. With nine goals in their last two clashes, expect goals. While Fiorentina's counter-threat with Moise Kean is real, Bologna's home form and strong motivation should see them through in a high-scoring affair.

Bologna's momentum is hard to ignore heading into this Apennine derby. Their gritty comeback against Verona ended a seven-game winless streak and has them eyeing a top-four push, while their perfect record of three straight home wins against Fiorentina at Dall'Ara gives them a psychological edge despite missing Cambiaghi, Lucumi and Bernadeschi.

Fiorentina's revival under Vanoli deserves respect – they've lost just once in five matches and showed resilience in their 1-1 draw at Milan. However, their tendency to drop points from winning positions (20 so far) is concerning.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities – Bologna without a clean sheet in 13 games and Fiorentina's counter-threat with Kean suggests we'll see goals. The odds favor Bologna at 2.25 compared to Fiorentina's 3.45, and with home advantage plus their recent head-to-head dominance, Bologna should edge this goal-filled encounter.

Bologna's Renato Dall'Ara is set to be a fortress in this Apennine derby, with Vincenzo Italiano making a charged return against his former club. The hosts are riding high after a gritty 3-2 comeback over Verona, snapping a seven-game skid and fueling their top-four ambitions. Their defense might be patched up without suspended Nicolo Cambiaghi and injured duo Jhon Lucumi and Federico Bernadeschi, but Bologna's attack has been lethal at home, claiming three straight wins over Fiorentina here.

Fiorentina, under Paolo Vanoli, have clawed from rock-bottom to just four points from safety, highlighted by a resilient 1-1 draw at Milan—their lone loss in five. Moise Kean's counter-threat looms large, yet the Viola's leaky backline has cost them 20 points from leads, mirroring Bologna's 13-game clean-sheet drought. History screams goals, with nine across their last two clashes.

Pundits lean Bologna 2-1, and at 2.25 odds, the value screams home win over Fiorentina's 3.45 and draw's 3.36. Expect a tense, goal-filled affair, but Bologna's home edge tips the scales for profit.

The Apennine derby ignites as Bologna aims to capitalize on momentum from their 3-2 comeback over Verona, ending a seven-game skid. However, suspensions and injuries to Cambiaghi, Lucumi, and Bernadeschi force defensive adjustments for the hosts.

Fiorentina's revival under Vanoli has them four points from safety, highlighted by a gritty 1-1 draw at Milan, with Moise Kean's counter-threat posing danger.

Both teams are defensively shaky—Bologna lacks a clean sheet in 13 games, Fiorentina has dropped 20 points from leads—so goals are likely, mirroring the nine in their last two meetings. History favors Bologna with three straight home wins over Fiorentina.

At odds of 2.25 for Bologna, backing the hosts' home edge offers value despite their patchy backline, while Fiorentina at 3.45 and the draw at 3.36 present riskier alternatives.

This Apennine derby between Bologna and Fiorentina promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams showing vulnerabilities but also flashes of potential. Bologna, despite missing key players like Nicolo Cambiaghi and Federico Bernadeschi, has historically dominated this fixture at the Renato Dall'Ara, winning their last three home games against Fiorentina. However, their leaky defense—without a clean sheet in 13 league matches—could prove costly against a Fiorentina side that thrives on counter-attacks, especially with Moise Kean leading the line.

Fiorentina's resurgence under Paolo Vanoli cannot be ignored. They've clawed back from the relegation zone and demonstrated resilience in tough fixtures, such as their recent 1-1 draw at Milan. While they still struggle to hold leads, their ability to grind out results shows a newfound grit. The odds reflect this balance: Bologna sits at 2.25, Fiorentina at 3.45, and a draw priced at 3.36. These numbers suggest Bologna are slight favorites, but the value lies elsewhere.

Given both teams' defensive frailties and history of high-scoring clashes—nine goals across their last two meetings—a decisive winner might not emerge. Instead, expect an open game where neither team can fully capitalize on chances. With the stakes high for both sides, a share of the spoils seems most likely.