Betting tips from AI for Bologna vs Sassuolo, 28 December 2025.

Bookmakers firmly back Bologna as the sensible pick here — they're the short favorites at 1.74 and most pundits back a narrow home win (Football Predictions and Sports Mole both forecast 2-1). Bologna’s strong Dall’Ara record and four-match unbeaten H2H edge matter, and Sassuolo look blunted without key finishers Berardi and Pinamonti.

There’s a caveat: models like Forebet give the draw a healthy look (39%) and the market lists stalemate at 3.65, while Sassuolo are long shots at 5.30. Still, value for a $1 stake aiming to maximise returns points to backing the proven home side — expect a tight Bologna win.

This regional Serie A derby sees Bologna, sitting sixth, host Sassuolo. While Bologna boasts a strong head-to-head record, including a 4-2 thrashing last time at home, their recent form is concerning – winless in three league games following Supercoppa heartbreak. Experts like Sports Mole predict a Bologna win, partly due to Sassuolo's likely absence of sharpshooters Berardi and Pinamonti. However, Cafa from GoonersGuide foresees a 1-1 draw, citing Bologna's leaky home defense. Forebet's stats model further supports a stalemate with a 39% chance. Given Bologna's current struggles and Sassuolo's knack for decent away points despite injuries, the value lies with a draw at 3.65, especially when Bologna is priced at 1.74.

Bologna's home fortress at the Dall'Ara is set to shine in this Emilia-Romagna derby, where the hosts hold a commanding edge over a Sassuolo side still finding their feet post-promotion. Sitting sixth with 25 points, Bologna may be winless in their last three league outings after that Supercoppa slip against Napoli, but their unbeaten streak in four head-to-heads against Sassuolo—including a dominant 4-2 thrashing last time out—screams confidence. Experts at Football Predictions and Sports Mole are all-in on a tight 2-1 Bologna win, spotlighting Sassuolo's crippling absences of key attackers Berardi and Pinamonti, which could blunt their threat despite a decent away points tally.

Sassuolo, tenth on 21 points and just four behind, have shown grit since climbing from Serie B, but recent stumbles like the loss to Torino expose vulnerabilities. While Forebet's model hints at a 39% draw chance and Cafa predicts a 1-1 with both scoring due to Bologna's leaky home defense, the odds tell a clearer story: 1.74 for Bologna reflects their solid form, making this the value play over the tempting 3.65 draw or 5.30 Sassuolo upset.

Betting $1 on Bologna to win isn't just backing favorites—it's capitalizing on derby history and firepower disparity for a profitable edge in a match primed for home glory.

Bologna's formidable home form and Sassuolo's injury woes make the hosts the clear favorites. Key attackers Berardi and Pinamonti are likely absent for Sassuolo, a massive blow for a team already struggling for consistency. While Bologna is winless in three, they are unbeaten in four straight head-to-heads, including a dominant 4-2 victory in their last meeting. The odds of 1.74 for a Bologna win offer solid value given this context.

However, Forebet's model suggests a 39% chance of a draw, and Bologna's leaky home defense could allow Sassuolo to score. Yet, Sassuolo's recent loss to Torino highlights their vulnerability. The sheer offensive gap created by Sassuolo's missing stars tilts this derby decisively towards the home side.

Bologna enters this fixture as the clear favorite with odds of 1.74, but recent form raises some concerns. While they boast an unbeaten streak against Sassuolo, their current run of three winless games in Serie A is troubling. The absence of key Sassuolo attackers Berardi and Pinamonti could tip the scales further in Bologna's favor, yet their leaky defense has been a recurring issue. Cafa from GoonersGuide highlights this vulnerability, suggesting a 1-1 draw is plausible.
Sassuolo, sitting tenth with 21 points, has shown promise but faltered recently against Torino. Their away form is decent, though, and they'll look to capitalize on Bologna's defensive frailties. Forebet's stats model gives a 39% chance of a stalemate, which aligns with the narrative that neither side seems dominant enough to secure a decisive victory here.
The odds for a draw stand at 3.65, offering significant value given the context. Both teams have struggled to find consistency lately, and the head-to-head record shows these encounters often produce tightly contested battles. With the bookmakers heavily favoring Bologna, backing a draw provides a strong opportunity to exploit potential overconfidence in the market.
Considering all factors, this match feels destined to end without a clear winner. Betting on a draw offers both profitability and aligns with the statistical and contextual analysis.