Betting tips from AI for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart, 22 November 2025.

Market perspective first: Borussia Dortmund are priced at 1.79, the draw at 4.11, and VfB Stuttgart at 4.25. That line bakes in Dortmund as clear favorites at home, but it also leaves room to question whether the home edge and current form fully justify the gap to the draw.

Dortmund’s home profile is elite this season: unbeaten and only one goal conceded in five league matches at the Westfalen. The structure has been sound, with the midfield controlling rhythm and the back line largely untroubled in front of a dependable keeper. Adeyemi pushing for a start adds verticality and direct threat in transition. The main caveat is the likely absence of Süle, which slightly trims aerial dominance and rotation flexibility at center-back.

Stuttgart arrive with morale and cohesion — as Tiago Tomas framed it, the group has no egos and works in unison — but they are not at full strength. Silas and several others are ruled out, and the away body of work is mixed with three defeats in five. Even so, Hoeneß’s side typically carry a punch: they have scored in seven of their last eight and come off a spirited 3-2 win over Augsburg. Their pressing triggers and quick wide combinations can trouble even well-drilled defenses.

The matchup tension is clear. Dortmund’s recent home metrics point to control and chance suppression, yet the Swabian hoodoo is real: six without a win against Stuttgart, five of those defeats, and last season’s meetings were goal-heavy and chaotic. When a favorite that thrives at home repeatedly fails to put away a particular opponent, it often hints at stylistic friction — Stuttgart’s transitional surges and willingness to commit numbers into the box can flip phases of play fast, forcing Dortmund into uncomfortable rest-defense moments.

Given the table context — level on points and Champions League stakes — we should also account for a slightly more risk-averse game state once parity holds late. Both attacks are capable, but injuries sap some of Stuttgart’s ceiling, while Dortmund’s recent pattern has included a few matches where dominance did not translate to a killer second goal. That combination skews plausible scorelines toward 1-1 or 2-2 more than the market implies.

From a value standpoint, 1.79 suggests Dortmund north of mid-50s percent to win, which feels a touch rich against an opponent that has consistently posed matchup problems and can still score on the road. Conversely, the draw at 4.11 offers an attractive cushion for a game likely to be tight, emotional, and phase-driven rather than one-way traffic. With a $1 stake, I’m taking the price that best balances realistic game states and payout.

Pick: Draw at 4.11.

This Bundesliga clash at Signal Iduna Park presents a classic betting conundrum: a dominant home team versus their ultimate bogey team. Borussia Dortmund enter this match as favorites with odds of 1.79, and for good reason. They have turned their home ground into a veritable fortress this season, remaining unbeaten and conceding just a single goal in five league matches. This defensive steel is a new and crucial element in their game.

However, the massive shadow of the "Swabian hoodoo" looms large. Dortmund have failed to beat VfB Stuttgart in their last six encounters, losing five of them. This isn't just a statistical anomaly; it's a significant psychological hurdle. Last season, Stuttgart dismantled Dortmund both home and away, showcasing a tactical blueprint for success against them. Manager Sebastian Hoeneß knows the challenge is immense, but his team has proven they have the formula.

So why back Dortmund to break the curse now? The deciding factor is the crippling injury crisis facing Stuttgart. The visitors will be without a host of key players, most notably dynamic attackers Silas and Ermedin Demirovic. Losing such vital offensive pieces severely blunts their threat, especially against a team that is so difficult to break down at home. While Stuttgart's team unity is commendable, solidarity alone cannot replace the quality and pace they are missing.

Furthermore, Stuttgart's away form has been shaky, with three losses in their five matches on the road. Contrast this with Dortmund's consistent form and deep squad, with players like Karim Adeyemi eager to make an impact. With both teams level on points, the motivation for Dortmund to finally overcome their nemesis and gain an edge in the Champions League race will be at a fever pitch. The circumstances are perfectly aligned for Dortmund to leverage their home advantage against a depleted and travel-worn opponent. This time, form and personnel trump history.

This Bundesliga clash between two teams locked on 21 points presents a fascinating betting opportunity, especially when considering the historical context and current form dynamics.

Dortmund's home fortress has been nearly impenetrable this season, conceding just one goal in five home matches while remaining unbeaten. Their attacking prowess is undeniable, having scored in every single match this campaign. However, the elephant in the room is their shocking recent record against Stuttgart - winless in six meetings with five defeats, including last season's humiliating 5-1 home loss and a 2-1 defeat in Dortmund.

Stuttgart arrives with significant injury concerns, missing key players like Demirovic, Diehl, Jaquez, Keitel, and Silas. Their away form has been inconsistent with three defeats in five road matches, which contrasts sharply with Dortmund's home dominance. Despite these setbacks, Stuttgart's recent 3-2 victory over Augsburg demonstrates their resilience and attacking threat.

The psychological factor cannot be ignored. Stuttgart has developed a genuine 'hoodoo' over Dortmund, and confidence plays a massive role in football. However, injuries to multiple key players significantly weaken their squad depth for this crucial encounter.

Manager Sebastian Hoeneß acknowledging this as a 'major test' and emphasizing the need for '100 percent in every position' suggests Stuttgart recognizes the difficulty of their task, especially with a depleted squad.

Given Dortmund's exceptional home record this season, their need to break the Stuttgart curse at home, and Stuttgart's injury crisis, the odds favoring Dortmund at 1.79 represent solid value. While Stuttgart's 4.25 odds reflect their recent dominance in this fixture, their current squad limitations make this an uphill battle against a motivated Dortmund side desperate to end their frustrating run against the Swabians.

The Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart on November 22, 2025, promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams neck-and-neck on 21 points, separated only by goal difference. Dortmund, playing at their fortress Signal Iduna Park, are unbeaten at home this season, boasting an impressive defensive record of just one goal conceded in five home matches. This solid foundation could be key against a Stuttgart side that's been hit hard by injuries, missing pivotal players like forward Ermedin Demirovic, winger Silas, and others including Justin Diehl, Luca Jaquez, and Yannick Keitel. Without these key contributors, Stuttgart's attack might lack the punch they've shown in recent games, where they've scored in seven of their last eight outings.

However, history adds a layer of intrigue—Dortmund haven't beaten Stuttgart in their last six meetings, losing five, including dramatic high-scoring affairs like last season's 5-1 thrashing and a 2-1 defeat at home. The 'Swabian hoodoo' narrative is buzzing in the media, and Stuttgart's team unity, as highlighted by forward Tiago Tomas, emphasizes their collective fight without egos, which has propelled them to a strong 3-2 win over Augsburg recently. Manager Sebastian Hoeneß acknowledges the challenge, calling Dortmund one of the toughest away tests, and he'll demand 100% from his squad. Yet, Stuttgart's away form is patchy, with three losses in five league road games, which could be exploited by Dortmund's prolific attack that's scored in every match this season.

Dortmund's recent form is reliable, with just one loss in six and a draw at Hamburg SV, plus forward Karim Adeyemi vying for a start after a bench appearance. Center-back Niklas Süle might sit out, but their home resilience should hold. The odds reflect this: Dortmund at 1.79 as favorites, Stuttgart at 4.25, and draw at 4.11. Betting on Dortmund seems profitable here—their home dominance and Stuttgart's injury woes tip the scales, potentially breaking the hoodoo. While the fixture's history suggests goals (19 in the last two meetings), I'm backing Dortmund to edge a close win, perhaps 2-1, capitalizing on their defensive solidity and attacking flair. For bettors, this -126 line offers value in a match with Champions League implications—don't overlook the underdog's spirit, but home advantage prevails.

Borussia Dortmund's formidable home record this season makes them a compelling favorite in this top-of-the-table Bundesliga clash. Unbeaten at Signal Iduna Park with just one goal conceded in five matches, they boast a defensive resilience that could stifle Stuttgart's attack.

VfB Stuttgart arrives with momentum from a 3-2 win over Augsburg, but their campaign is hampered by critical absences—key players like Silas and Demirovic are ruled out, weakening their offensive thrust. While Stuttgart has historically dominated this fixture, winning five of the last six meetings, current squad disruptions and a mixed away record (three defeats in five road games) undermine their chances.

Dortmund's consistent scoring—netting in every match this season—paired with Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, suggests the hosts can capitalize. The odds of 1.79 for a Dortmund win reflect solid value, given their home edge and opponent's injury crisis.

Although both teams are level on points and feature prolific attacks, Dortmund's overall stability and minimal squad issues tilt the balance. Expect them to end their Stuttgart hoodoo in a tightly contested match, leveraging home support to secure three vital points.

Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart are set to clash in what promises to be a thrilling Bundesliga encounter. Both teams share identical points totals, making this match crucial for their Champions League aspirations. While Dortmund has been nearly impenetrable at home, their historical struggles against Stuttgart cannot be ignored. This paradox presents a fascinating dilemma for bettors seeking value.
Dortmund’s defensive solidity at Signal Iduna Park is undeniable. With only one goal conceded in five home games, they have established themselves as one of the toughest teams to break down on their own turf. However, their inability to defeat Stuttgart in six attempts raises questions about their mental fortitude in this specific matchup. The absence of Niklas Süle further complicates matters, as his leadership at the back will be sorely missed. Meanwhile, Karim Adeyemi’s potential inclusion could add dynamism to Dortmund’s attack, but his impact remains uncertain given his recent substitute appearances.
Stuttgart, on the other hand, enter the game with confidence despite missing several key players. Their attacking prowess has been evident throughout the season, scoring in seven of their last eight matches. Tiago Tomas’ comments about team unity highlight a cohesive unit capable of overcoming adversity. Sebastian Hoeneß’s acknowledgment of Dortmund’s challenge underscores respect rather than fear, suggesting Stuttgart will not shy away from playing aggressively. However, their inconsistent away form—three losses in five matches—raises doubts about their ability to secure all three points.
Historical trends also favor Stuttgart. In the last two meetings alone, these sides combined for 19 goals, with Stuttgart emerging victorious both times. The narrative of Dortmund’s “Swabian hoodoo” adds psychological weight to Stuttgart’s favor. For Dortmund, breaking this streak would require not just tactical brilliance but also overcoming a deeply ingrained mental block.
The bookmaker odds reflect Dortmund’s perceived advantage, listing them at 1.79. A win for Stuttgart is priced at 4.25, while a draw stands at 4.11. Given the context, a wager on Dortmund might seem like the safer option due to their home dominance. Yet, history suggests that backing Stuttgart could yield substantial returns if they can replicate past performances against Dortmund. Alternatively, the high-scoring nature of recent fixtures makes the draw an intriguing possibility, especially considering the attacking firepower on display.
Ultimately, the decision hinges on balancing statistical evidence with intangible factors such as momentum and psychology. Dortmund’s defensive record at home is compelling, but their Achilles' heel against Stuttgart is too significant to overlook. Coupled with Stuttgart’s resilience and attacking threat, this creates a scenario where a draw seems most probable. Both teams are likely to cancel each other out in a tightly contested affair, resulting in shared spoils.
In conclusion, while Dortmund holds the edge on paper, Stuttgart’s historical dominance and Dortmund’s psychological barriers tip the scales toward a stalemate. Bettors should consider the draw as the optimal choice, capitalizing on its relatively generous odds of 4.11.