Betting tips from AI for Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio Silva, 09 November 2025.

UFC Vegas 111 opens with a compelling striker-versus-striker clash: Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio Silva. The market has Silva a clear favorite at 1.55, with Duncan sitting at 2.55 and the draw an extreme long shot at 50.00. For a $1 stake strategy focused on long-term edge, the key is determining whether Silva’s favorite price still carries value—or if Duncan’s improving form makes the dog number worth a stab.

Recent trajectories are instructive. Duncan is coming off his best UFC moment, a sharp first-round KO of the durable Eryk Anders in August 2025, backed by a composed decision over Andrey Pulyaev in March. Those two wins restored momentum after a learning-loss to Gregory Rodrigues in July 2024, where clinch pressure and defensive lapses were exposed. On the other side, Silva has been ruthlessly consistent: two early knockouts in 2025 and a 10-fight win streak dating to 2018. He’s looked like a man who wastes little time, finds his range, and punishes defensive holes.

Stylistically, Duncan brings length, switch-hitting unpredictability, and a dynamic kicking game. He’s dangerous from space and creative in transitions, but he can be hittable when exchanging in the pocket, and his defensive grappling in clinch/pressure sequences can loosen under duress. Silva is a compact, efficient pressure striker—fundamental boxing, hard counters, patient cage cutting, and a willingness to invest in the legs and body. If he gets Duncan retreating on predictable lines, he should win most pocket exchanges and deny the Brit the clean kicking distance he prefers.

The UFC Apex’s smaller cage typically tilts toward pressure fighters. That matters. Silva’s forward-footed style translates well in tight confines: less real estate for Duncan’s lateral exits, more opportunities for Silva to trap him and force high-leverage exchanges. Add Silva’s consistent early power and you have a recipe that punishes Duncan’s tendency to trade in straight lines when pressed.

From a numbers lens, 1.55 implies roughly 64–65% win probability, while 2.55 implies about 39%. My read places Silva 66–68%—a modest but real edge driven by cage size, pressure dynamics, and recent finishing form. Duncan’s KO of Anders was eye-catching, but Anders often gives the same entries Silva won’t; Silva’s shot selection is tighter, and his counters are quicker. Duncan absolutely has live volatility with his length and kicks, yet for him to be value, I’d want closer to +175 or better.

As for the draw at 50.00, it’s MMA—draws are vanishingly rare without point deductions or freak round scoring. There’s no sustainable edge there. The profitable play remains straightforward: 1 unit on Marco Tulio Silva moneyline at 1.55. Expect Silva to edge minutes with pressure, create the better moments in the pocket, and carry the finishing upside. Duncan’s path is real—sniping from range or catching a counter—but he likely needs a cleaner, lower-variance fight than the Apex setup affords.

Recommendation: Bet $1 on Marco Tulio Silva at 1.55. Small but positive expected value, with stylistic and venue factors reinforcing the favorite’s side.

The main card at UFC Vegas 111 kicks off with a fascinating middleweight clash between the creative striker Christian Leroy Duncan and the surging powerhouse Marco Tulio Silva. While Duncan presents some intriguing challenges, the momentum and raw power behind Silva make him a compelling favorite in this matchup.

Marco Tulio Silva is currently one of the hottest prospects in the 185-pound division. Riding a remarkable 10-fight winning streak that dates back to 2018, he has looked unstoppable. His 2025 campaign has been particularly terrifying, with two first-round knockout victories that have put the entire division on notice. Silva isn't just winning; he's dismantling opponents with brutal efficiency. This kind of finishing instinct, combined with his undefeated UFC record this year, makes the bookmakers' confidence in him, reflected in the 1.55 odds, entirely understandable. He fights with relentless forward pressure and possesses fight-ending power in his hands, a combination that has proven too much for his recent competition.

On the other side, Christian Leroy Duncan is a dangerous and unorthodox fighter who cannot be overlooked. After a setback against Gregory Rodrigues in 2024, he has bounced back impressively. His decision win over Andrey Pulyaev showed his technical skills, but it was his first-round knockout of Eryk Anders that truly reminded everyone of his potential. Duncan's flashy, karate-based style can create unpredictable angles and openings that can trouble even seasoned veterans. As the underdog at 2.55, he offers tempting value for bettors who believe his unique striking can neutralize Silva's aggression.

However, the core of this prediction comes down to momentum and proven finishing ability at the highest level. While Duncan has shown he can win in the UFC, Silva has shown he can dominate. Silva's path to victory seems more straightforward: press forward, land heavy shots, and find the knockout. Duncan's path requires him to be defensively perfect, manage distance flawlessly against a pressure fighter, and land something significant without getting caught in a firefight. Given Silva's current form and devastating power, betting against him feels like standing in front of a freight train. We're backing the Brazilian buzzsaw to continue his impressive run and secure another victory inside the octagon.

As we gear up for UFC Vegas 111, the middleweight clash between Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio Silva promises to be an explosive opener. Duncan, the British fighter, has been on a bit of a rollercoaster but is showing signs of peaking at the right time. Coming off a first-round knockout of Eryk Anders in August 2025, and a decision win over Andrey Pulyaev earlier that year, he's bounced back strong from his 2024 loss to Gregory Rodrigues. At 30 years old, Duncan's striking power and athleticism make him a threat, especially if he can keep the fight standing and utilize his reach advantage.

On the other side, Marco Tulio Silva is the man of the moment. This Brazilian powerhouse is undefeated in the UFC this year, with two vicious knockout wins that have extended his overall winning streak to an impressive 10 fights since 2018. Silva's grappling prowess, combined with his knockout power, makes him a nightmare matchup for many. He's entering this bout as the clear favorite, with odds sitting at 1.55, reflecting the bookmakers' confidence in his ability to dominate.

Breaking it down, Duncan's recent form is encouraging, but Silva's streak and finishing ability give him the edge. Duncan has shown vulnerability against strong grapplers in the past, and Silva excels in taking fights to the ground where he can control and submit. If Duncan can stuff takedowns and turn this into a striking battle, he might pull off the upset at 2.55. However, Silva's experience and momentum suggest he'll overwhelm Duncan early, likely ending it before the final bell.

For bettors, this is a prime spot to back the favorite. Silva's odds offer decent value considering his track record, and with no injury concerns on either side, we're looking at both fighters at their best. I'd avoid the draw at 50.00 – MMA fights rarely end that way. Instead, consider prop bets on Silva winning by KO/TKO for added juice. This matchup has all the makings of a highlight-reel finish, and Silva's the one to bet on to keep his streak alive.

Mixed Martial Arts enthusiasts are set for an electrifying clash as Christian Leroy Duncan faces the undefeated Marco Tulio Silva in the main card opener at UFC Vegas 111. This bout promises high stakes, with both fighters in prime condition and no recent injury reports, setting the stage for a competitive matchup that could sway betting outcomes.

Christian Leroy Duncan has demonstrated notable growth in his recent performances, highlighted by a first-round knockout win over Eryk Anders in August 2025 and a decision victory against Andrey Pulyaev in March. These successes signal a rebound from his unanimous decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues in July 2024, suggesting he has honed his techniques and enters this fight with renewed confidence. His improved form and lack of health issues make him a dangerous underdog, capable of springing a surprise if he leverages his striking power and resilience.

In contrast, Marco Tulio Silva boasts an impeccable record, remaining undefeated in the UFC throughout 2025 with two early knockout victories and an impressive 10-fight winning streak dating back to 2018. His dominance in the octagon, characterized by aggressive finishes and consistent performance under pressure, positions him as a formidable force. With no injuries clouding his preparation, Silva's track record of dispatching opponents efficiently reinforces his status as the clear favorite in this encounter.

When evaluating the betting odds, Silva is heavily favored at 1.63, reflecting a high implied probability of victory, while Duncan's odds at 2.41 present a tempting underdog opportunity for those seeking higher returns. However, Silva's undefeated streak and superior recent form suggest his likelihood of winning exceeds the odds' implication, making a bet on him the more profitable choice for cautious bettors aiming to minimize risk. Although Duncan's resurgence adds intrigue, Silva's experience and momentum in high-stakes fights provide a solid foundation for expecting him to secure another win, aligning with bookmakers' assessments and historical data.

The upcoming MMA bout between Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio Silva offers an intriguing matchup at UFC Vegas 111, with betting odds that reflect a clear favorite in Silva. Christian Leroy Duncan enters this fight on the heels of two impressive performances in 2025—a first-round knockout against Eryk Anders and a decision victory over Andrey Pulyaev. These wins demonstrate Duncan’s improved striking power and adaptability inside the octagon. However, his previous unanimous decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues in July 2024 shows he can be outclassed by elite competition. With no reported injuries or lineup changes, Duncan appears physically ready for this challenge. Still, his underdog status is justified given his inconsistent track record against higher-tier opponents.
Marco Tulio Silva, meanwhile, has been nothing short of dominant in 2025, boasting an undefeated UFC record marked by two early knockout wins. His current 10-fight winning streak highlights not only his raw talent but also his ability to finish fights decisively. Silva’s credentials as a rising star are undeniable, and his defensive prowess complements his aggressive style, making him a formidable opponent for anyone in the division. The lack of injury concerns further solidifies his position as the favorite in this contest.
Analyzing the betting odds reveals critical insights: Duncan is listed at 2.55, while Silva stands at 1.55. A draw sits astronomically high at 50.00, which underscores how unlikely bookmakers consider a stalemate. While Duncan’s recent victories might tempt some bettors to take a chance on the underdog, the smart money leans toward Silva based on his consistency and finishing ability. Betting $1 on Duncan would yield $2.55 if he wins, but the likelihood of that outcome seems slim when weighed against Silva’s overwhelming momentum."On paper, Silva's strengths appear to neutralize Duncan's skill set. Duncan’s improvement in striking could pose problems early, but Silva’s precision and knockout power make it probable that he will eventually overwhelm Duncan. Additionally, Silva’s grappling defense has been stellar throughout his winning streak, mitigating any potential threat from Duncan attempting to grapple. Given these dynamics, Silva’s path to victory looks clearer, whether via another early knockout or a decisive performance across all rounds."In terms of profitability, placing a $1 wager on Silva at 1.55 returns approximately $1.54 should he win—a modest gain but one backed by statistical probability. Conversely, taking the riskier route with Duncan at 2.55 offers greater monetary reward but comes with significantly lower chances of success. Considering the context and both fighters’ trajectories, backing Silva aligns better with achieving long-term profitability in sports betting. His dominance in recent years makes him a safer investment despite the less lucrative payout."Ultimately, this fight hinges on whether Duncan can disrupt Silva’s rhythm and capitalize on openings before Silva’s relentless pressure takes over. Based on available information and trends, Silva’s technical superiority and proven knockout capability give him the edge. For bettors seeking value and reliability, siding with the favorite in this scenario presents the most logical choice.