Betting tips from AI for Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils, 23 November 2025.

The market has Arizona State priced as a clear road favorite at 1.37, while Colorado sits at a juicy home underdog tag of 3.25. That gap reflects season-long form (ASU 7-3, CU 3-7) and the Sun Devils’ defensive edge, but it also creates a live opportunity on the dog when you dig into matchup specifics, game state, and variance.

Arizona State’s identity is a defense-first, grind-it-out team that ranks well against the run and wins close games. Their offense, led by dual-threat Jeff Sims and RB Raleek Brown, manages just 24.7 points per game and often plays inside one-score margins. That low-tempo, low-explosiveness profile can suppress possessions and keep underdogs in range. If ASU’s path is methodical drives rather than quick-strike scores, one or two high-leverage plays can swing the result—exactly the scenario that boosts a plus-money home side.

Colorado’s defense is the worry, especially against the run, but the Buffaloes have an antidote on the other side: freshman QB Julian Lewis has injected life into the passing game, and ASU’s secondary has shown vulnerability to big plays. With Lewis attacking downfield to Omarion Miller and Jimmy Williams, Colorado has the very thing that punishes a defense that loads up versus the run—explosive chunk gains. Add the altitude, a charged senior-night atmosphere, and Deion Sanders’ public push to “finish strong,” and you have a tangible home-field amplifier for a team whose offense is trending up.

Recent results also hint the gap isn’t vast. ASU edged West Virginia 25-23; Colorado fell 29-22 to WVU—both tight contests that suggest the margin between these teams is narrower than records imply. If we handicap Colorado’s true win probability in the 35–38% range given matchup leverage (deep passing vs a susceptible secondary) and situational edges (home crowd, emotional send-off), the break-even for 3.25 (about 30.8%) is beatable. Conversely, backing ASU at 1.37 requires a high 73%+ probability—steep for a road favorite in a likely low-scoring script.

The most profitable $1 play, in my view, is the Buffaloes moneyline at 3.25. You’re embracing some volatility, but the game state favors volatility: fewer possessions, explosive-play potential for Colorado, and a crowd that can compound momentum swings. ASU is the rightful favorite, yet the price overstates the true gap. I’ll take the home dog to spring the upset and the value that comes with it.

Pick: Colorado moneyline 3.25.

While the odds heavily favor the Arizona State Sun Devils at 1.37, this matchup screams 'value bet' on the home underdog. The Sun Devils boast a solid 7-3 record and a formidable run defense, but their position as a heavy road favorite feels precarious against a Colorado team with everything to play for.

This isn't just another game for the Buffaloes; it's a statement. Head Coach Deion Sanders has publicly framed this as a 'pride game' and the final home stand for his seniors. The emotional energy at Folsom Field will be palpable, creating a hostile environment that can disrupt even disciplined teams. Motivation is a powerful, unquantifiable factor in college football, and Colorado has it in spades.

From a tactical standpoint, the key lies in Colorado's burgeoning offense against Arizona State's specific defensive weakness. While ASU ranks 28th against the run, their secondary has been exposed by big plays. This vulnerability aligns perfectly with the Buffaloes' greatest strength: freshman phenom QB Julian Lewis. His connection with receivers Omarion Miller and Jimmy Williams gives Colorado a 'puncher's chance' to generate explosive, game-changing scores. They don't need to win in the trenches; they need to win over the top, and ASU's defense might just let them.

Furthermore, Arizona State's offense is far from intimidating. Averaging a modest 24.7 points per game, they rely on a grind-it-out style that keeps opponents in the game. They lack the offensive firepower to pull away, meaning this contest is likely to be a one-score affair deep into the fourth quarter. In a tight game on the road, with the crowd roaring and a young QB making plays, the pressure shifts entirely to the favorite. The Buffaloes' defense is porous, particularly against the run, but if their offense can put points on the board early, they can force ASU out of its comfort zone. At 3.25, the value on a highly motivated home underdog with an explosive X-factor at quarterback is simply too compelling to pass up.

This late-season Big 12 matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity despite Arizona State being heavily favored at 1.37. The Sun Devils enter with a solid 7-3 record and superior defensive metrics, particularly their 28th-ranked run defense, which should theoretically contain Colorado's struggling ground game that allows over 210 rushing yards per contest.

However, several factors make Colorado an appealing underdog at 3.25. The emotional component cannot be understated - this is the Buffaloes' final home game of 2025, creating a charged atmosphere in Boulder. Deion Sanders has framed this as a "pride game" for his seniors, and desperate teams often perform above expectations in such scenarios.

The key wildcard is freshman quarterback Julian Lewis, who has injected life into Colorado's offense since taking over. His connection with receivers Omarion Miller and Jimmy Williams has been particularly effective, and Arizona State's secondary has shown vulnerability to big plays. While the Sun Devils' defense is solid overall, they haven't faced many dynamic young quarterbacks with the mobility and arm talent that Lewis possesses.

Arizona State's offense presents concerns for bettors backing the favorite. Averaging just 24.7 points per game, they rely heavily on a grind-it-out style with Jeff Sims and Raleek Brown. This approach works against weaker opponents but can struggle when needing to pull away from desperate teams playing with house money.

Colorado's 1-6 Big 12 record is misleading context for this specific matchup. Several of those losses came during the quarterback transition period, and the team has shown improved cohesion recently. At home, they average 25 points per game compared to 22 overall, suggesting the friendly confines provide a meaningful boost.

The betting value clearly lies with Colorado. While Arizona State should win on paper, the 1.37 line severely undervalues the Buffaloes' potential for an emotional home finale upset.

As we gear up for this Big 12 clash between the Colorado Buffaloes and the Arizona State Sun Devils on November 23, 2025, at 1:00 UTC, the odds paint a clear picture: Colorado as the underdogs at 3.25 and Arizona State favored at 1.37. With Colorado sitting at a dismal 3-7 record and Arizona State boasting 7-3, it's no surprise the Sun Devils are expected to dominate. But let's dive deeper into what makes this matchup intriguing for bettors looking for value.

First off, Arizona State's defense is the real deal, ranked 28th nationally against the run. This spells trouble for Colorado, whose offense has been inconsistent, averaging just 22 points per game overall and only slightly better at 25 at home. The Buffaloes' defense is even worse, allowing a whopping 210.9 rushing yards per game—dead last in many metrics. Arizona State's dual-threat QB Jeff Sims and RB Raleek Brown could exploit this weakness in a grind-it-out style that keeps the scoreboard low, as their offense averages 24.7 points.

On the flip side, Colorado has some sparks of hope with freshman QB Julian Lewis, who's been connecting well with receivers like Omarion Miller and Jimmy Williams. ESPN's Robert Griffin III noted that Lewis gives them a 'puncher's chance' at home, especially with Deion Sanders rallying the troops for a 'pride game' in their final home outing. The emotional boost from seniors and a raucous Boulder crowd could fuel an upset, but history isn't kind—Colorado is 1-6 in conference play and hasn't topped 30 points since early season.

Arizona State enters with momentum from a 25-23 squeaker over West Virginia, showing they can win close ones. Their secondary has vulnerabilities to big plays, which Lewis might target, but overall, the Sun Devils' defensive edge and better record make them the safer bet. For those eyeing profitability, the 1.37 on Arizona State might not offer huge payouts, but it's a high-probability play. If you're feeling risky, Colorado's 3.25 could yield big if they pull off the home miracle, but I wouldn't bank on it given their defensive woes.

In summary, while the home atmosphere adds intrigue, Arizona State's superior form and defensive prowess should carry them to victory in what could be a low-scoring affair. Bettors, consider the under if lines drop, but for the win, the Sun Devils are my pick to cover and close strong.

Arizona State enters this matchup with clear advantages that make them the logical betting choice. Their 1.37 moneyline odds reflect strong confidence from oddsmakers, and for good reason. The Sun Devils hold a 7-3 record and are riding momentum from a hard-fought win over West Virginia. Their defense, ranked 28th nationally against the run, is poised to dominate a Colorado offensive line that has struggled all season. The Buffaloes’ inability to establish a ground game will put excessive pressure on freshman quarterback Julian Lewis, forcing him into difficult situations against a disciplined Sun Devils front.

While Colorado has emotional factors in their favor—Senior Day, a final home game, and Deion Sanders’ motivational push—intangible elements rarely overcome significant talent and performance gaps. The Buffaloes’ defense is a major liability, allowing over 210 rushing yards per game. Arizona State’s offensive identity, centered on dual-threat QB Jeff Sims and RB Raleek Brown, is perfectly designed to exploit this weakness. Expect the Sun Devils to control the clock, wear down Colorado’s defense, and methodically build a lead.

Colorado’s offensive spark from Lewis is noteworthy, but Arizona State’s secondary vulnerabilities are unlikely to be fully exploited given the Buffaloes’ overall offensive inconsistency. They haven’t scored over 30 points since early in the season, and even their slightly improved home scoring average of 25 points is unlikely to suffice. Arizona State’s grind-it-out style and superior defensive discipline should neutralize Colorado’s occasional big-play potential. In a late-season game where execution matters more than emotion, the Sun Devils’ tangible strengths make them the profitable side.

The matchup between Colorado Buffaloes and Arizona State Sun Devils presents an intriguing betting opportunity, particularly given the dynamics at play. While Arizona State enters the game as a clear favorite with odds of 1.37, their vulnerabilities against explosive offenses could tilt the scales in Colorado’s favor. The Buffaloes’ young quarterback Julian Lewis has shown flashes of brilliance this season, especially when surrounded by a supportive home crowd. His ability to connect with receivers like Omarion Miller and Jimmy Williams adds a layer of unpredictability that could exploit Arizona State’s secondary weaknesses. This matchup feels like a classic case of underdog potential meeting situational advantages.
Colorado’s struggles defensively cannot be ignored, as they rank near the bottom nationally in rushing yards allowed (210.9 per game). However, much of this stems from their inability to contain elite running backs—something Arizona State doesn’t necessarily possess. Their leading rusher, Raleek Brown, averages just 4.8 yards per carry, which suggests he may not dominate against even a porous Buffaloes defense. Moreover, quarterback Jeff Sims, while talented, hasn’t been consistent enough to single-handedly elevate his team’s scoring output. The Sun Devils average only 24.7 points per game, often bogged down in low-scoring affairs, making it harder for them to cover larger spreads or justify their steep odds.
On the flip side, Colorado’s emotional edge cannot be underestimated. With head coach Deion Sanders framing this as a “pride game” and the final home appearance for seniors, the Buffaloes will likely play with heightened intensity. An expected strong turnout from the home crowd in Boulder could amplify this effect, creating an atmosphere where Arizona State’s methodical style might falter. Sanders’ influence on his players has already sparked improvement in key areas, such as Lewis’s development under center. These intangibles often make a difference in college football, particularly during late-season games laden with sentimental value.","short_desc": "Arizona State's defensive strengths are offset by Colorado's offensive potential and home-field advantage; the Buffaloes offer value at 3.25.