Betting tips from AI for Cremonese vs AS Roma, 23 November 2025.

Roma travel to Cremona looking every inch a title contender: four wins in five, joint-top of the table, and a defense that has yielded just 5 goals in 11 league matches. Cremonese, by contrast, are wobbling with two straight defeats and only one win in their last five, and the Zini has not been a fortress lately (winless in four). The mood in Cremona is tense, the demand for a reaction is real, but pressure rarely improves decision-making against a side this organized.

Team news nudges the matchup further toward a controlled, low-scoring away performance. Cremonese may be without Mikayil Faye and remain without Michele Collocolo, weakening their aerial presence and ball-winning in midfield. Roma lose attacking craft with Paulo Dybala and the unavailable Artem Dovbyk, but the return of Evan Ferguson gives them a focal point to occupy center-backs, and their structure behind the ball has been elite. When a back line is this reliable, one good moment in transition or from a set piece often decides it.

Tactically, Cremonese will try to compress the middle third and force Roma wide, looking to spark counters through quick diagonals. The issue is Roma’s timing in the press and their rest-defense: they concede almost no clean breaks, and they’re ruthless at killing tempo when needed. The last head-to-head at Zini did go Cremonese’s way, so there’s a cautionary flag, but that upset required Roma to play below their baseline and Cremonese to hit near their ceiling—conditions that don’t obviously repeat here given current form and absences.

From a betting perspective, the moneyline prices read: Roma 1.63, Draw 3.95, Cremonese 5.87. Those translate to break-even probabilities of roughly 61.4%, 25.3%, and 17.0%. My fair line makes Roma around 64–66%, Draw near 20–22%, Cremonese 12–14%. That creates a modest but real edge on Roma. For a $1 stake at 1.63, expected value is positive: even with conservative assumptions, Roma’s win probability clears the break-even bar by a few points.

Game script leans tight: Roma’s defensive control plus limited playmaking without Dybala points to a professional away performance rather than a shootout. Cold but clear weather removes noise; the main variance driver is whether Cremonese can cash a rare set piece or early transition. If not, Roma’s patience should tell.

The bet: $1 on Roma to win at 1.63. Projected scoreline: 0–1 or 0–2. Alternatives like the draw hold some narrative appeal at 3.95, but without enough value; and the dog price 5.87 still looks short of the true upset probability.

This Serie A clash presents a classic top-versus-bottom narrative, but key injuries on both sides add a layer of tactical intrigue. AS Roma arrive at the Stadio Giovanni Zini as co-leaders of the table, boasting a formidable defensive record that has seen them concede a mere five goals in eleven matches. Their form is imperious, with four wins in their last five outings, and the objective is clear: maintain pressure on Inter at the summit.

However, the Giallorossi are not without their problems. The absence of star strikers Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala is a significant blow that severely blunts their attacking edge. While the fit-again Evan Ferguson is a capable replacement, Roma will likely rely more heavily on the defensive discipline that club legend Francesco Totti highlighted as a key to victory. This suggests a game plan focused on control and capitalizing on limited chances rather than an all-out offensive.

On the other side, Cremonese are in a precarious position. Two consecutive defeats and only one win in their last five games have them looking over their shoulders. Their home form is particularly concerning, with the team failing to win in their last four matches at the Zini. Compounding their woes are crucial injuries; midfielder Michele Collocolo is out, and the potential absence of key defender Mikayil Faye could leave their backline critically exposed.

While former striker Luca Toni correctly notes that the Zini can be a tough ground for visiting giants, and Cremonese did win the last corresponding fixture, the current circumstances are vastly different. Cremonese's defensive fragility and lack of form clash directly with Roma's organized and resilient structure. Even with a weakened attack, Roma's quality and defensive superiority should be the deciding factor. Expect a tight, professional performance from the visitors to grind out a vital three points, making the 1.63 on an away win the logical choice.

This Serie A clash presents a compelling narrative of contrasting fortunes that makes Roma's 1.63 odds particularly attractive for value-conscious bettors. The Giallorossi arrive at the Zini stadium riding a wave of momentum with four wins in their last five matches, sitting atop the Serie A table and showcasing the kind of form that championship contenders display.

Roma's defensive solidity has been their calling card this season, conceding a miserly five goals in eleven matches. This defensive excellence, combined with what Francesco Totti describes as "Gasperini's tactical discipline," creates a foundation that should prove decisive against a struggling Cremonese side. The visitors' ability to grind out results away from home has been impressive, and their recent surge suggests they've found the winning formula.

Cremonese's current predicament tells a different story entirely. Two consecutive defeats, including a deflating 1-0 loss to Pisa, have left them winless in four home matches at the Zini. Their recent form shows just one victory in five league games, indicating a team lacking confidence and struggling to find their rhythm. The pressure is mounting from frustrated fans demanding a reaction, but this creates additional mental burden rather than inspiration.

Injury concerns further complicate Cremonese's task. Defender Mikayil Faye's fitness remains doubtful after limping off injured, while Michele Collocolo's continued absence weakens their midfield options. Roma, despite missing attacking threats Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala, have Evan Ferguson ready to lead the line, and their squad depth should compensate effectively.

While Luca Toni's warning about the Zini's difficulty for big clubs carries merit, and Cremonese did win the last Serie A meeting between these sides, current form and quality gaps suggest Roma's class will prevail. The 1.63 odds reflect justified confidence in an away victory that should materialize through Roma's superior organization and defensive strength.

As we gear up for this intriguing Serie A clash between Cremonese and AS Roma at the Stadio Giovanni Zini, the odds paint a clear picture of favoritism. Cremonese sits as the underdog at 5.87, while Roma is heavily backed at 1.63, with the draw offering 3.95. But let's dive deeper into why this matchup screams value for the visitors.

Roma's recent form is nothing short of impressive. With four wins in their last five matches, they've propelled themselves to the top of the Serie A table, sharing the summit with Inter. This surge isn't just about luck; it's built on a rock-solid defense that's conceded a mere five goals in 11 outings. Legends like Francesco Totti are singing their praises, highlighting the tactical discipline under Gasperini that could prove decisive here. Even without key attackers like Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala, the return of Evan Ferguson up front adds a fresh dynamic, and their away form has been stellar, making them a nightmare for hosts.

On the flip side, Cremonese is reeling. Two straight defeats, including a frustrating 1-0 loss to Pisa, have them winless in four home games at Zini. Injuries are piling up too—defender Mikayil Faye is doubtful after limping off, and midfielder Michele Collocolo is still out with a thigh issue. Former striker Luca Toni pointed out that while Zini isn't an easy venue for big clubs, Cremonese's dip in form makes this a must-win for Roma. Sure, they pulled off a surprise win against Roma in their last Serie A head-to-head here, but that feels like ancient history given the current trajectories.

Betting-wise, the 1.63 on Roma might not scream massive payout for a $1 bet, but it's about consistency and profitability over time. If you're eyeing higher returns, consider combining this with under goals, given Roma's defensive prowess and Cremonese's struggles to score at home. The cold but clear weather won't disrupt play, and with no off-field drama, it's all about on-pitch execution. Pundits and bookies alike are leaning Roma, and for good reason—their depth and discipline should edge out a narrow victory, perhaps 1-0 or 2-1.

For enthusiasts, this is a classic spot to back the form team against a struggling side. Roma's ability to grind out results away from home, coupled with Cremonese's home woes, tips the scales. Don't sleep on the unpredictability factor—Toni's warning about Zini adds spice—but data and trends point to an away win. If Cremonese can rally their tense fanbase for a reaction, it might get interesting, but Roma's quality should prevail. Betting smart here means riding the momentum; a $1 on Roma at 1.63 could net you about $1.63 total, building that bankroll steadily.

AS Roma enter this Serie A clash as the clear favorites, and the data supports their case emphatically. Their current form is stellar, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing a team high on confidence and tactical execution. This surge has propelled them to the top of the table, and the motivation to maintain that position against a struggling side like Cremonese cannot be understated. Manager Gasperini has instilled a remarkable defensive discipline, with the team conceding a mere five goals in eleven matches. This defensive wall, combined with their potent away form, makes them a formidable opponent for any team, especially one in a slump.

Cremonese, on the other hand, are in a precarious state. They are winless in their last four home matches at the Zini stadium and are coming off the back of two consecutive defeats. The potential absence of key defender Mikayil Faye, compounded by the existing injury to Michele Collocolo, weakens their defensive structure at a time when they need it most against a top-tier attack. While the Zini stadium has historically been a tricky venue for big clubs, and they did win the last head-to-head there, the current momentum and quality gap between these two squads appears too significant for that history to repeat itself.

Injuries are a factor for both sides, but Roma seems better equipped to handle them. While the absence of Dovbyk and Dybala is a blow, the return of Evan Ferguson provides a reliable and fresh attacking outlet. Cremonese's injury woes directly impact their already fragile defense. The bookmaker odds reflect this reality, with Roma priced at a convincing 1.63, indicating a high probability of an away win. The draw at 3.95 and the Cremonese win at a massive 5.87 represent poor value given the overwhelming evidence pointing towards a Roma victory.

Considering all factors—Roma's superior form, defensive solidity, table position, and Cremonese's defensive injuries and poor home record—the most probable and profitable outcome is a win for the away side. The odds for a straight Roma win offer the best combination of value and likelihood for your betting dollar in this fixture.

When analyzing this Serie A clash between Cremonese and AS Roma, several factors point toward a decisive away victory for Roma, despite the inherent challenges of playing at Zini Stadium. The odds reflect this expectation, with AS Roma heavily favored at 1.63, while Cremonese are priced as underdogs at 5.87. The draw sits at 3.95, suggesting bookmakers see it as a less likely outcome. These odds align with recent form, tactical setups, and key player absences on both sides.
Roma’s recent run of form has been nothing short of impressive, winning four out of their last five matches. This surge has propelled them into contention for the Serie A title, sitting level on points with Inter Milan. Their defensive solidity has been a cornerstone of their success, conceding only five goals in 11 matches—a remarkable achievement that underscores José Mourinho’s influence. Even without Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala, who are sidelined due to injuries, Roma’s attacking options remain potent. Evan Ferguson’s return provides a significant boost, as his physical presence and clinical finishing can trouble Cremonese’s shaky defense. Angelino’s potential inclusion further strengthens their left flank, which could exploit any weaknesses on Cremonese’s right side.",Cremonese, on the other hand, find themselves in a precarious position. Two consecutive defeats have dented their confidence, and they enter this match winless in their last four home games. Their struggles are compounded by injuries to key players like Mikayil Faye and Michele Collocolo. Faye’s absence in particular leaves a gaping hole in their backline, making them even more vulnerable against Roma’s structured attacks. Moreover, their lone win in the last five league games came against lower-tier opposition, highlighting their inability to compete with stronger teams. While Francesco Totti’s comments about Zini being a tricky venue hold some merit, Cremonese’s current form suggests they lack the resilience to capitalize on home advantage.",Tactically, this match could hinge on Roma’s ability to break down a low block, which Cremonese are likely to deploy given their defensive frailties. However, Mourinho’s experience in handling such scenarios gives Roma an edge. His emphasis on set pieces and quick transitions could prove decisive, especially if Cremonese commit numbers forward in search of an equalizer. Furthermore, Roma’s midfield trio—likely featuring Nemanja Matic and Bryan Cristante—should dominate possession and control the tempo, starving Cremonese of opportunities to build meaningful attacks.",While Cremonese did secure a surprise win over Roma in their last meeting at Zini, replicating that feat seems improbable given their current predicament. That result was largely attributed to individual brilliance rather than team cohesion, which Cremonese sorely lacks now. Additionally, Roma’s improved squad depth and tactical adaptability make them far less susceptible to upsets compared to last season. The psychological impact of needing a strong performance cannot be underestimated either; Roma will be eager to maintain their title challenge and avoid dropping points against mid-table opposition.",Considering all these factors, betting on AS Roma to win appears to be the most profitable option. The odds of 1.63 may not offer massive returns, but the likelihood of Roma securing three points is high enough to justify the investment. For those seeking higher risk-reward scenarios, the draw at 3.95 might seem tempting, but Cremonese’s poor form and defensive issues make it a less reliable choice. Ultimately, Roma’s blend of quality, motivation, and tactical nous should see them prevail in what promises to be a tightly contested yet ultimately one-sided affair.