Betting tips from AI for Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat, 04 December 2025.

Miami looks like the cleaner bet here. Their offensive firepower projects around 121 points against a Dallas defense that gives up 118.4, and a 7-3 recent run versus Dallas’ troubling 6-15 stretch makes a clear form gap. The market prices them at 1.60 while Dallas sits at 2.47, and that line still favors Miami given matchup dynamics.

Injuries tilt this further: Dallas is without Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum for the season, and P.J. Washington Jr. is questionable, which weakens their rotations. Miami’s depth cushions concerns about Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson. I side with the Miami Heat to win — they present the most straightforward value here based on offense, recent form, and the injury picture.

The Miami Heat roll into Dallas as 1.60 favorites, and for good reason. Their offensive firepower is projected to be a significant problem for the Mavericks, with the Heat expected to drop 121 points against a Dallas defense that allows 118.4 per game. The Mavericks have been consistently inconsistent, winning only four of their last 15 games as underdogs, a stark contrast to Miami's impressive 13-7 record.

While both teams are battling injuries, Miami’s strong recent form, sporting a 7-3 record in their last 10, suggests they'll overcome any personnel challenges. Analysts are even predicting a comfortable 121-114 victory for the Heat. Despite Dallas holding a 1-0 record against the spread in their last matchup, their overall struggles this season paint a clear picture. The Heat are simply the better, more in-form team.

Miami Heat comes into this matchup with significant momentum, sporting a solid 13-7 record against Dallas's concerning 6-15 mark. The Heat's offensive capabilities look particularly troublesome for the Mavericks, with Miami projected to put up 121 points against a Dallas defense allowing 118.4 points per game.

Injury situations favor Miami as well. Dallas is missing key defensive anchor Dereck Lively II and has lost Dante Exum for the season, with P.J. Washington Jr. questionable. While Miami has some guard concerns with Larsson and Johnson, their depth appears better equipped to handle these absences.

The betting line of Miami at 1.60 reflects the justified confidence in the Heat. Dallas's 4-11 record as underdogs this season is particularly telling, suggesting they struggle in precisely this type of matchup. With Miami going 7-3 in their last 10 games and entering as 3.5-point favorites, the Heat should secure a comfortable road win around the projected 121-114 margin.

The Miami Heat head into Dallas as clear favorites, and for good reason—their offensive firepower is set to exploit the Mavericks' leaky defense. With projections of 121 points against a Dallas squad that surrenders 118.4 per game, Miami's scoring edge feels insurmountable, especially given their 13-7 record compared to the Mavs' dismal 6-15 mark.

Dallas has been a mess as underdogs, winning just four of their last 15 in that spot, and injuries aren't helping: no Dereck Lively II anchoring the paint, Dante Exum out for the season, and P.J. Washington questionable. Miami has its own guard concerns with Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson, but their 7-3 run in the last 10 games screams momentum.

Sure, Dallas covered in their most recent head-to-head, but that glimmer fades against the Heat's current form. At 1.60, Miami offers solid value for a projected 121-114 win—I'm betting on the visitors to extend their streak and hand Dallas another L.

The Miami Heat roll into Dallas with offensive firepower, projected to score 121 points against a Mavericks defense allowing 118.4 per game. Their 13-7 record and 7-3 recent form contrast sharply with Dallas's 6-15 struggles and 4-11 mark as underdogs.

Injury woes mount for the Mavericks, missing Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum, with P.J. Washington Jr. questionable. Miami's minor guard issues are less concerning, preserving their depth advantage.

At odds of 1.60 for Miami and 2.47 for Dallas, the Heat's 3.5-point favorite status and projected 121-114 win make them the profitable pick, despite Dallas's past ATS success.

The upcoming clash between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat presents an intriguing betting opportunity, especially with the Heat entering as clear favorites at 1.60. Miami's offensive dominance has been a defining trait this season, with projections suggesting they could score around 121 points. This firepower poses a significant challenge for a Mavericks defense that concedes an average of 118.4 points per game. Dallas, meanwhile, struggles to find consistency, having won only four of their last 15 games as underdogs, which raises doubts about their ability to pull off an upset despite being offered tempting odds of 2.47.

Injury concerns further muddy the waters for both teams. Miami might be without key guards Pelle Larsson and Keshad Johnson, while Dallas is already grappling with the absence of center Dereck Lively II and guard Dante Exum. These absences could tilt the scales even more in Miami’s favor, given their superior depth and recent form. The Heat’s 7-3 record in their last 10 games underscores their momentum, making them a reliable pick in this matchup.

While Dallas holds a psychological edge from covering the spread in their last meeting with Miami, this appears insufficient to overcome the Heat’s current superiority. With Miami projected to win by a margin of 121-114, backing the Heat at 1.60 seems like the smarter, albeit less lucrative, choice compared to risking a bet on Dallas at 2.47.