Daria Kasatkina vs Elise Mertens - AI Predictions Comparison (10 February 2026)

Elise Mertens looks like the cleaner, lower-variance choice here. She comes in as the heavy favorite at 3.66, with the court sense and consistency to control rallies and punish short balls. Kasatkina is listed at 1.33, but the headline story is her ‘‘favoritism curse’’ — four straight main-draw losses when backed as the favorite — which hints at fragile form and pressure-handling issues that can bleed into any tight match.

On a $1 stake the payday is modest, but this is about maximizing expected value. Given Mertens’ steadiness, favorable matchup patterns and Kasatkina’s recent mental wobble when expectations loom, backing Elise Mertens is the smart, profit-oriented play.

This Qatar Open clash between Daria Kasatkina and Elise Mertens presents a clear favorite according to the bookmakers, with Mertens opening at 3.66 against Kasatkina's 1.33. The recent news paints a stark picture for Kasatkina, who is reportedly under immense pressure after a brutal streak of "four straight main draw losses when backed as the favorite." While she's the underdog here, her current form is concerning, with tipsters questioning if she'll "finally break free" from her skid, even struggling against lesser opponents like Uchijima.

In contrast, Elise Mertens comes into this potential showdown with confidence, described as a "heavy favorite" in her own matches. Her steady performance and the bookmakers' strong belief in her at 3.66 suggest she's in a much more assured state. Kasatkina's documented inability to cover spreads and her general struggle to meet expectations make betting against her current trajectory a risky proposition.

Considering Kasatkina's recent struggles and the pressure she's facing, coupled with Mertens' solid form and strong odds, the smart money is on the Belgian to advance. Mertens appears to be playing with more conviction and consistency, making her the more reliable pick in this encounter.

Elise Mertens enters this Qatar Open clash as the justified favorite at 3.66 against a struggling Daria Kasatkina. The Russian's recent form is concerning - she's riding a troubling streak of four consecutive losses when favored, suggesting a mental block when carrying expectations. This psychological hurdle could prove decisive in Doha.

Mertens, meanwhile, has been showing more consistency and appears poised to continue her strong run. The Belgian's tactical acumen on hard courts gives her a significant edge, particularly against opponents battling confidence issues.

Kasatkina's inability to cover spreads as a favorite is a major red flag. With the pressure mounting to snap this skid, she faces the worst possible scenario in Mertens - a composed, experienced opponent who rarely beats herself. The 1.33 odds on Kasatkina reflect her talent but not her current mental state.

The value clearly lies with Mertens, who should navigate this matchup efficiently and potentially set up that intriguing third-round clash with Swiatek that analysts have been anticipating.

In the Qatar Open Women's showdown, Daria Kasatkina faces Elise Mertens in what promises to be a high-stakes clash on the Doha hard courts. Kasatkina, the top seed, enters with a frustrating curse hanging over her: four straight main draw losses as the favorite, including shaky performances that have bettors questioning her 3.66 underdog value here. Despite her technical prowess and recent desperation to snap the skid, the pressure mounts as she eyes a potential third-round threat to Iga Swiatek.

Mertens, meanwhile, stands as the heavy favorite at 1.33, fresh off eyeing an upset over Pavlyuchenkova in her path. The Belgian's consistent baseline game and five straight wins over similar opponents give her the edge in endurance. While both are tricky customers for Swiatek, Mertens' form suggests she'll handle Kasatkina's variety better, avoiding the Russian's occasional lapses under favoritism stress.

Betting $1 on Mertens at these odds offers solid value for profitability, capitalizing on her reliability against Kasatkina's streak.

Elise Mertens enters as the clear favorite with odds of 3.66, reflecting her consistent performance and status as a heavy favorite in recent matches. Daria Kasatkina, despite her talent, carries the burden of a 'favoritism curse' with four straight losses when backed as the favorite, but here she's the underdog at 1.33.

This shift in dynamics could play to Kasatkina's advantage, as she's desperate to snap her skid and faces less pressure. However, Mertens' firm footing and analytical edge as a tricky customer for top players suggest she'll handle the occasion better.

In a clash where both aim to derail Swiatek, Mertens' reliability and favorable odds make her the prudent pick for a profitable bet.

Daria Kasatkina, despite being a formidable player, has been struggling with a significant issue: she has lost her last four main draw matches when favored. This trend is particularly concerning as she faces Elise Mertens, who is a strong and consistent player. Mertens, on the other hand, is coming into this match with a solid form, having been a heavy favorite in her previous encounters. The odds reflect this, with Mertens at 3.66 and Kasatkina at 1.33. Given Kasatkina's recent struggles and the pressure to perform, it seems more likely that Mertens will maintain her composure and secure the win. The psychological edge and current form favor Mertens, making her the safer bet in this matchup.