Betting tips from AI for David Benavidez vs Anthony Yarde, 23 November 2025.

The market is screaming one-way traffic, with David Benavidez posted around 1.10 (roughly 1.01 decimal) against Anthony Yarde at a hefty 8.00, and the draw out at 25.00. Lines like these say more about pricing than inevitability: bookmakers are taxing the favorite’s win probability hard, creating an underdog number that pays handsomely if the fight tilts volatile early.

Stylistically, this is a pressure-versus-puncher matchup. Benavidez brings that trademark engine—high output, cutting off the ring, body work, and a late-round suffocation that breaks opponents. Yarde is explosive and compact, with a sharp counter right and heavy combinations when he commits. The tension sits in the first half: can Benavidez stay safe through Yarde’s early detonations long enough to apply his attritional grind?

Voices around the bout frame the narrative similarly. Roy Jones Jr. lauded Benavidez’s pressure and stamina, predicting a late break and a KO finish. Carl Froch acknowledged Yarde’s fight-changing power, but warned that if he doesn’t dent Benavidez early, it becomes a “long night.” Even the public buzz—Drake backing Benavidez—tilts perception further toward the favorite. Yarde, for his part, insists this is the best version of himself and that his power will surprise.

Form notes matter. Benavidez is unbeaten (30-0) and has looked strong at 175, with quality wins and titles in hand. Still, that grueling 12-rounder over David Morrell left visible wear, raising fair questions about recovery and how deep the gas tank is on a quick turnaround at a higher-impact weight class. Yarde has rebuilt with four straight wins since the Beterbiev loss, including a composed decision over Lyndon Arthur—evidence of renewed discipline to pair with his pop.

Paths are clear. Benavidez’s A-game is cumulative: walk-down pressure, volume, and pace to a late stoppage or wide cards. Yarde’s A-game is frontloaded: fast trigger counters and explosive entries to force damage early before the engine test arrives. Riyadh’s stage and crowd should favor the marquee champion’s rhythm, but early rounds are where crowds don’t score—power does.

This is a betting decision, not a legacy verdict. At 1.10, you need Benavidez north of ~91% to break even. While he’s the likeliest winner, a realistic projection sits meaningfully lower, given Yarde’s puncher’s chance combined with questions about cumulative wear and a physically taxing style at 175. Conversely, 8.00 implies roughly 12.5% for Yarde; his true win chance—primarily via early stoppage—projects higher than that, offering positive expected value.

Could the draw at 25.00 land? Rarely. Title-fight draws are infrequent and generally require knockdowns or extreme swing rounds; it’s more lottery ticket than edge. The cleaner, disciplined angle is a small stake on the Yarde moneyline, accepting that Benavidez is the most likely victor but that the pricing gap creates a profitable long-term play.

The pick is the value side: Anthony Yarde at 8.00. It’s a calculated underdog stab predicated on early-fight volatility, power carry, and a favorite whose method—while superior over 12—can be short-circuited before it fully comes online.

This light heavyweight title clash in Riyadh presents a classic stylistic matchup: the relentless, volume-punching pressure of David Benavidez against the explosive, one-punch knockout power of Anthony Yarde. The bookmakers have established Benavidez as a prohibitive favorite, with odds as short as 1.10, and the reasoning is clear. Benavidez is an undefeated, two-division champion known for his suffocating pace and debilitating bodywork, a style that has overwhelmed every opponent he has faced.

Expert analysis from legends like Roy Jones Jr. and Carl Froch reinforces this narrative. Jones Jr. predicts Benavidez will “break Yarde down late,” highlighting a pressure and stamina combination that few can withstand. Froch echoes this, noting that while Yarde’s power is a legitimate threat, it has a time limit. If Yarde can’t land a fight-altering shot in the early rounds, Benavidez’s relentless assault is likely to take over. This is the critical dynamic of the fight: can Yarde’s power overcome Benavidez’s process?

For Yarde, the path to victory is narrow but clear. As the significant underdog at 8.00, his chance lies in catching Benavidez early. His confidence is high, and his power is undeniable. However, his stamina has been a persistent weakness, most notably exposed in his valiant but ultimately unsuccessful challenge against Artur Beterbiev. Against a fighter like Benavidez, who weaponizes pace, any cardio deficiencies will be magnified and exploited. Benavidez is not just a pressure fighter; he possesses a granite chin and has proven he can navigate treacherous waters, as seen in his recent grueling 12-round victory over David Morrell.

While that war with Morrell raises slight concerns about wear and tear, it also demonstrated his championship heart. Benavidez is now settled at 175 lbs and is defending his titles with an eye on unifying the division against Beterbiev or Bivol. He is unlikely to overlook the danger Yarde presents. Expect Yarde to have his moments in the opening frames, but as the fight progresses, Benavidez’s superior engine, combination punching, and body attack will systematically drain Yarde’s energy, leading to a stoppage in the second half of the fight or a wide decision victory for the champion.

The odds heavily favor David Benavidez at 1.10, and for good reason. The undefeated Mexican-American brings a relentless pressure style that has proven devastating at both super middleweight and now light heavyweight. His recent victories over Oleksandr Gvozdyk and David Morrell demonstrate his successful transition to 175 lbs, where he now holds the WBC and WBA titles.

Anthony Yarde's explosive power cannot be dismissed lightly. The British fighter has shown he can end fights with a single shot, and his recent four-fight winning streak suggests he's found his rhythm after the Beterbiev setback. However, the fundamental stylistic matchup strongly favors Benavidez. Roy Jones Jr.'s assessment about Benavidez's "pressure and stamina being on another level" hits the nail on the head.

Yarde's path to victory is narrow - he needs an early knockout before Benavidez's relentless pace takes over. Carl Froch's analysis is spot-on: if Yarde doesn't get Benavidez out early, it becomes "a long night for the Brit." Yarde's stamina concerns are well-documented, and facing someone who throws punches in bunches for twelve rounds is his worst nightmare.

While Benavidez looked worn after the Morrell fight, that was against another elite-level opponent. Yarde, despite his improvements, represents a step down in competition. Benavidez's ability to break down opponents in the later rounds through volume and pressure should prove decisive.

The 8.00 odds on Yarde offer attractive value for risk-takers, but the smart money follows the fundamentals. Benavidez's superior conditioning, proven championship mettle, and stylistic advantages make him the clear choice despite the heavy chalk.

The upcoming boxing clash between David Benavidez and Anthony Yarde on November 23, 2025, in Riyadh promises to be a thrilling showdown in the light heavyweight division. Benavidez, the unbeaten phenom with a perfect 30-0 record, enters as the heavy favorite with odds of 1.10, reflecting his dominance and recent successes. His move up to 175 lbs has been seamless, highlighted by victories over tough opponents like Oleksandr Gvozdyk and David Morrell. However, that grueling points win against Morrell raised some eyebrows about his recovery, as he appeared worn out after 12 rounds. Still, boxing legend Roy Jones Jr. praises Benavidez's pressure and stamina, predicting he'll break Yarde down late for a KO finish.

On the other side, Anthony Yarde steps in as the underdog at 8.00, but he's no pushover. The British bomber has rebuilt his career impressively since his 2023 loss to Artur Beterbiev, rattling off four straight wins, including a solid decision over Lyndon Arthur. Yarde's explosive power is his biggest asset, and as former champion Carl Froch notes, he could shock the world if he lands early. His confidence shone through at the press conference, declaring this as the best version of himself. Yet, stamina concerns linger, especially against Benavidez's relentless pace—something that could turn the fight into a long, punishing night for Yarde if it goes deep.

Betting on this bout, the value seems skewed heavily toward Benavidez, but smart punters might eye the draw at 25.00 as a long-shot hedge, though it's unlikely given both fighters' aggressive styles. The Saudi setting adds intrigue, with record purses and a star-studded crowd, including potential future opponents like Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev watching ringside. Celebrity endorsements, like Drake backing Benavidez, amp up the hype, but let's not overlook the controversy surrounding the event's Middle Eastern ties, which has boxing insiders buzzing.

From a betting perspective, Benavidez's track record and expert predictions make him the safe pick. His ability to maintain pressure could exploit Yarde's potential fatigue, leading to a late stoppage as Jones Jr. suggests. Yarde's power puncher's chance is real— he's got the tools to upset if Benavidez slips up early—but history shows underdogs like him struggle against elite, unbeaten talents. For those looking to maximize profits on a $1 bet, riding with Benavidez at 1.10 might not yield huge returns, but it's the most probable outcome. If you're feeling bold, a prop bet on Benavidez by KO/TKO could sweeten the pot, given the breakdowns from analysts.

Overall, this fight positions Benavidez as the future of the division, potentially setting up mega-bouts ahead. No major injuries reported means we're in for a full-throttle battle, but I see Benavidez's experience and conditioning edging out Yarde's raw power in the end.

David Benavidez enters this bout as the heavy favorite with odds at 1.10, and for good reason. His unbeaten record of 30-0, coupled with his successful transition to light heavyweight, showcases a fighter at the peak of his powers. Benavidez's relentless pressure and exceptional stamina, as highlighted by Roy Jones Jr., are key assets that will likely overwhelm Anthony Yarde over the course of the fight. While Yarde possesses explosive power that could produce an early shock—evidenced by his 8.00 underdog odds—his historical stamina issues are a major concern against an opponent who thrives in prolonged engagements.

Recent performances add depth to this analysis. Benavidez's grueling points win over David Morrell, though it raised questions about his recovery, also demonstrated his ability to dig deep and secure victories against top-tier competition. In contrast, Yarde's rebuild since his loss to Artur Beterbiev has been solid, but his four straight wins, including over Lyndon Arthur, haven't fully erased doubts about his endurance under constant pressure. Carl Froch's insight that Yarde needs an early finish rings true; if Benavidez survives the initial onslaught, his volume punching and conditioning should take over.

The context of the event itself cannot be ignored. Staged in Riyadh with strong support for Benavidez and high stakes for future mega-bouts, the environment favors the champion. Benavidez's motivation to defend his WBC and WBA titles and position himself for clashes with Bivol or Beterbiev will drive him to impose his will. Yarde's confidence and power make him a live underdog, but the odds reflect the reality: Benavidez's consistency and tactical advantages point toward a late stoppage or decisive decision, making him the smart betting choice despite the low return on investment.

David Benavidez enters this light heavyweight clash as the overwhelming favorite, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.10 for his victory. His undefeated record (30-0) and recent successes at 175 lbs speak volumes about his dominance in the division. However, there are subtle warning signs that bettors should consider. After a grueling points win over David Morrell, Benavidez looked visibly fatigued, raising questions about how well he has recovered from such a taxing fight. While his relentless pressure and stamina have been praised by legends like Roy Jones Jr., these traits could be tested against an explosive puncher like Anthony Yarde.
Anthony Yarde, on the other hand, is a massive underdog with odds of 8.00. Despite the steep odds, Yarde brings undeniable power to the ring, which has been his calling card throughout his career. His confidence ahead of the bout—declaring himself in the “best version” of his abilities—is noteworthy. However, Carl Froch’s comments highlight a critical flaw: Yarde’s stamina issues. If Yarde cannot secure a knockout early, Benavidez’s pressure will likely overwhelm him as the fight progresses.
The venue adds another layer of intrigue. The ANB Arena in Riyadh offers a neutral setting but with strong support expected for Benavidez due to his status as the main attraction. This home-crowd advantage could further fuel Benavidez’s performance. Moreover, Drake’s public endorsement underscores the narrative of Benavidez being the future of the division, adding psychological momentum to his corner.
From a betting perspective, while Yarde’s odds might tempt some to take a flyer on the upset, the safer investment lies with Benavidez. His technical skills, combined with his ability to break opponents down over time, make him the more reliable option. Even if Yarde lands a few heavy shots early, Benavidez’s durability and composure suggest he can weather the storm and dominate late. Betting $1 on Benavidez at 1.10 may not yield substantial returns, but it represents a high-probability outcome given the context of the matchup.","The short-term risk of backing Benavidez lies in Yarde's knockout power, but Benavidez's pressure and stamina should prevail in the later rounds.